Core Insights - The total revenue for Hong Kong's import and export trade, wholesale and retail, and accommodation and food services industries is projected to be HKD 547.35 billion in 2024, representing a 4.5% increase from 2023 [1] - The average total revenue per company in these sectors is expected to rise by 10.6% to HKD 38.7 million in 2024 [1] Group 1: Overall Industry Performance - The total operating expenses for these industries in 2024 are estimated at HKD 499.77 billion, also a 4.5% increase from 2023 [1] - The average operating expenses per company are projected to increase by 10.6% to HKD 35.3 million [1] - The total surplus (total revenue minus total operating expenses) for these industries is expected to be HKD 47.57 billion, a 3.9% increase from 2023 [1] - The average surplus per company is projected to rise by 10.0% to HKD 3.4 million [1] - The surplus accounts for 8.7% of the total revenue in 2024, similar to the proportion in 2023 [1] Group 2: Sector Breakdown - The industry value added for these sectors is projected to be HKD 649.1 billion in 2024, a 3.4% increase from 2023 [2] - The average industry value added per company is expected to rise by 9.5% to HKD 4.6 million [2] - Approximately 141,400 companies are engaged in these sectors, employing around 896,900 people, with an average of 6.3 employees per company [2] Import and Export Trade - The total revenue for the import and export trade sector is projected to be HKD 452.33 billion in 2024, with operating expenses of HKD 409.25 billion [2] - The surplus is expected to increase from HKD 41.32 billion in 2023 to HKD 43.08 billion in 2024, accounting for 9.5% of total revenue [2] - The industry value added is projected to rise by 5.6% to HKD 49.33 billion [2] Wholesale Sector - The total revenue for the wholesale sector is expected to be HKD 27.52 billion, with operating expenses of HKD 26.99 billion [2] - The surplus is projected to decrease from HKD 5.6 billion in 2023 to HKD 5.3 billion in 2024, accounting for 1.9% of total revenue [2] - The industry value added is expected to decline by 2.6% to HKD 1.91 billion [2] Retail Sector - The total revenue for the retail sector is projected to be HKD 48.92 billion, with operating expenses of HKD 45.89 billion [3] - The surplus is expected to increase from HKD 29.9 billion in 2023 to HKD 30.3 billion in 2024, accounting for 6.2% of total revenue [3] - The industry value added is projected to decrease by 7.7% to HKD 68.9 billion [3] Accommodation Services - The total revenue for the accommodation services sector is expected to be HKD 46.1 billion, with operating expenses of HKD 39.2 billion [3] - The surplus is projected to increase from HKD 6.1 billion in 2023 to HKD 6.9 billion in 2024, accounting for 15.0% of total revenue [3] - The industry value added is expected to rise by 6.5% to HKD 21.8 billion [3] Food Services - The total revenue for the food services sector is projected to be HKD 139.8 billion, with operating expenses of HKD 137.4 billion [3] - The surplus is expected to decrease from HKD 2.9 billion in 2023 to HKD 2.4 billion in 2024, accounting for 1.7% of total revenue [3] - The industry value added is expected to slightly increase by 0.7% to HKD 46 billion [3]

Core Viewpoint - Singapore's economy is projected to grow by 2.9% year-on-year in Q3 2025, surpassing market expectations, while the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) maintains its current monetary policy stance to retain flexibility amid future uncertainties [1][3]. Economic Performance - The seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth for Singapore's economy in Q3 was 1.3%, with an average GDP growth rate of 3.9% for the first three quarters of 2025 [1]. - The manufacturing sector showed mixed results, with a year-on-year output flat at 0.0%, but a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.1%, driven by strong demand for AI-related investments in electronics and precision engineering [2]. - The construction sector experienced a year-on-year growth of 3.1%, although it contracted by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a short-term slowdown [2]. - The services sector demonstrated robust growth, expanding by 3.5% year-on-year, supported by demand in wholesale trade, IT services, financial services, and a rebound in international tourism [2]. Market Predictions - Several market institutions have raised their GDP growth forecasts for Singapore in 2025, with DBS Bank increasing its prediction from 2.0% to 3.5%, and Maybank adjusting its forecast from 3.2% to 3.5% [3]. - However, analysts express caution regarding 2026, predicting a slowdown to 1.8% due to adverse factors such as U.S. tariff policies and diminishing export support [3][4]. Monetary Policy - The MAS decided to maintain its nominal effective exchange rate policy unchanged, reflecting a forward-looking stance despite low current core inflation [5]. - The MAS anticipates core inflation to gradually rise to a range of 0.5% to 1.5% by 2026, while the output gap is expected to remain positive in 2025, indicating the economy is operating slightly above its long-term potential [5][6]. - Analysts suggest that maintaining the current policy allows for "insurance easing" options in response to potential economic slowdowns in 2026 [6].