Core Insights - The Polish solar and energy storage market is experiencing rapid growth, with sustainable installation trends, particularly in centralized and commercial energy storage systems, due to favorable returns and significant development potential [1] - China's inverter manufacturers have a strong market presence in Poland, suggesting continued investment interest in companies like Deye Co., Ltd. (605117.SH) [1] Group 1: Market Growth and Projections - Poland's new installations are expected to reach 5GW this year, a 25% year-on-year increase, with cumulative installations surpassing 26GW [1] - Energy storage installations are projected to be 543MW/1013MWh this year, reflecting a 102%/131% year-on-year growth [1] - The five-year CAGR for Poland's energy storage installations from 2026 to 2030 is anticipated to be 27.85%, with average storage hours for commercial, residential, and centralized systems expected to double [1] Group 2: Project Returns and Profitability - Household solar storage projects (5KW+5KWh) have an IRR of approximately 15.71% over a 25-year lifecycle, with payback periods of 5-8 years without government subsidies [2] - Current subsidies reduce the payback period for household investors by about one year, enhancing project attractiveness [2] - In the commercial storage sector, Polish energy storage projects rank highly in profitability within the European market, with a 31% quarter-on-quarter revenue increase for 1MWh systems, reaching €41,985, and a 35% increase for 2MWh systems, reaching €55,319 [2] Group 3: Competitive Advantages of Chinese Manufacturers - Chinese inverter manufacturers hold a competitive edge in distribution coverage, product power range, and system compatibility [3] - Analysis shows that Chinese inverter brands account for approximately 75% of the inventory categories of major distributors, while storage PCS brands from China dominate with a 90% share [3] - The influence of Chinese storage PCS in the Polish market is notably stronger compared to inverters [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing a clear trend of international expansion, with overseas orders contributing to sustained performance improvement [1] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.773 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.23%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 419 million yuan, an increase of 46.49% year-on-year [5] - The company's gross margin improved to 22.92%, up 3.69 percentage points year-on-year, indicating enhanced profitability [5] - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 739 million, 881 million, and 1.041 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 14, 11, and 10 times [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 831 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.78%, and a net profit of 88 million yuan, up 71.56% year-on-year [6] - The company's inverter business generated revenue of 2.75 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 22.55%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.3 percentage points [6] - The company’s overseas revenue reached 1.16 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 69% [6] Business Segments - The energy storage PCS business generated revenue of 1.93 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 21.98%, up 5.81 percentage points year-on-year [9] - The company is transitioning from a domestic leader in PCS to a global specialized leader, indicating significant growth potential in overseas markets [9] Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 6.879 billion, 8.166 billion, and 9.395 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 44.1%, 18.7%, and 15.0% [10] - The projected gross margins for the next few years are expected to remain stable around 24.3% [10]