板块整体涨幅达14%。 作者 | 白猫 编辑 | 小白 今天，逆变器行业大爆发，市值风云逆变器行业涨幅14.07%。板块中股票全部上涨，其中锦浪科技 （300763.SZ）"20cm"涨停，德业股份（605117.SH）"10cm"涨停，阳光电源（300274.SZ）涨超1 6%。 | < 用 | 戊文衛 | | C Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1280.89 +14.07% | | | | 讨论 成分股 | 关联基金 | 资讯 | 研报 | | 名称 | 价格 = | | 涨跌幅 * 成交额 * | | 锦浪科技 | | 89.24 +19.99% | 44.32 亿 | | sz 300763 | | | | | 阳光电源 | | 135.34 +16.67% 217.11 亿 | | | sz 300274 | | | | | 固德威 | | 58.50 +11.75% 11.36 亿 | | | SH 688390 | | | | | 德业股份 | 75.55 | | +10.00% 32.74 亿 | | SH 605117 | | | | | 首航新能 | ...

泰康碳中和ETF（560560）紧密跟踪中证内地低碳经济主题指数，该指数由清洁能源发电、能源转换及 存储、清洁生产及消费与废物处理等公司组成，全面反映低碳经济主题上市公司证券的整体表现。 我国新能源汽车和锂电池产业在全球具备显著竞争优势，2024年新能源汽车销量达1285.9万辆，连续10 年稳居全球第一，锂电池关键材料全球出货占比超过70%。然而，行业也面临盈利水平偏低、产能过剩 等问题。近期政策持续加码，重要会议等多次强调整治"内卷式"竞争，推动行业高质量发展。在政策引 导下，新能源汽车和锂电池产业有望进一步优化竞争格局，提升全球竞争力。 2025年1-7月，我国逆变器出口金额同比增长9%，其中欧洲、澳洲市场表现尤为亮眼。出口欧洲金额达 146亿元，同比增长7%；出口澳洲金额14亿元，同比增长32%。欧洲大储、工商储需求潜力可期，2025 年欧洲储能装机预计达29.7GWh，同比增长36%。澳洲单月出口金额同比激增207%，成为我国逆变器 出口第二大市场。海外非美大储市场有望成为国内企业新的增长点。 截至2025年9月3日 11:25，碳中和ETF泰康(560560)上涨1.43%，跟踪指数中证内地低碳经 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the supply-side reform across various industries, highlighting a slower capacity reduction compared to previous reforms. The overall capacity and inventory cycles for non-financial enterprises in the second quarter remain at the bottom, indicating a need for time and policy accumulation for recovery [3][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Supply Capacity Assessment**: Analysts evaluate supply capacity using three dimensions: current supply capacity (capacity utilization rate and inventory), future supply changes (expansionary capital expenditure), and industry profitability (gross margin and proportion of loss-making enterprises) [4][5]. - **Manufacturing Sector**: - Industries such as construction, chemicals, and coke are categorized as "three lows" (low capacity utilization, low inventory, low expansionary capital expenditure), indicating low production willingness and limited future production capacity, accelerating capacity clearance [6]. - In contrast, cyclical products like textile chemicals, glass fiber, and fluorochemicals show profit growth, particularly fluorochemicals [6]. - Manufacturing areas like inverters, silicon materials, and silicon wafers are performing well, while lithium batteries and photovoltaic cell components are at the left-side bottom [6]. - **Consumer Goods Sector**: Chemical pharmaceuticals and clothing/home textiles are performing well, while traditional Chinese medicine is positioned in the middle to later stages of the left side [6]. - **TMT Sector**: Electronic chemicals, integrated circuit manufacturing, and security equipment are in relatively good positions, with no observed left-side bottom industries [2][6]. Additional Important Insights - The current supply-side framework is based on listed company data, reflecting the latest industry conditions as of the second quarter. The introduction of anti-involution policies has led to some positive factors across industries, but the overall situation remains at the bottom, requiring further time and policy efforts for noticeable changes [3]. - The assessment of supply capacity includes measuring capacity utilization through fixed asset turnover ratios and inventory through cumulative year-on-year comparisons over the past decade [4][5]. - Continuous tracking of data across different sectors is essential for making accurate judgments regarding potential investment opportunities and risks [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment and new energy sector [1] Core Insights - In the first seven months of 2025, China's inverter export value increased by 9% year-on-year, with a total of 37.1 billion yuan exported [2][14] - Europe, Asia, and Latin America are the top three markets for China's inverter exports, accounting for 39%, 36%, and 10% of the total export value respectively [2][14] - The report highlights significant growth in the Australian market, with a 207% year-on-year increase in July 2025, making it the second-largest market for single-month exports [2][25] Summary by Sections Inverter Export Overview - In July 2025, China's inverter export value was 6.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 16% [14] - The total export value for the first seven months reached 37.1 billion yuan, with Europe, Asia, and Latin America showing varying growth rates [14][20] Regional Performance - **Europe**: In the first seven months, exports to Europe totaled 14.6 billion yuan, a 7% increase year-on-year, with Germany showing a remarkable 55% growth [2][20] - **Asia**: Exports to Asia reached 13.4 billion yuan, up 17% year-on-year, with significant contributions from the Middle East and Southeast Asia [2][32] - **Latin America**: Exports to Latin America decreased by 19% year-on-year, totaling 3.7 billion yuan, primarily due to a decline in the Brazilian market [2][20] Market Opportunities - The report identifies emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and Africa as having strong potential for distributed energy storage solutions [2][48] - It recommends leading companies in non-American markets and emerging markets for energy storage, highlighting Haibo Sichuang and Sunshine Power as key players [2][48] Demand Drivers - The report outlines various demand drivers in emerging markets, including high electricity prices, unreliable power supply, and supportive government policies for solar and storage solutions [4][5][48]

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved robust growth in H1 2025, with revenue of 5.535 billion yuan, up 16.58% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.522 billion yuan, up 23.18% year-on-year [5] - The company's inverter business generated revenue of 2.644 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.90%, while the energy storage battery pack business saw a significant revenue increase of 85.80% year-on-year [6] - The company is expected to benefit from strong demand in emerging markets, particularly in the industrial storage sector, which is anticipated to be a key growth driver [7] Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company reported a net profit of 1.522 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 27.5% [5] - The company forecasts net profits of 3.550 billion yuan and 4.394 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a projected P/E ratio of 16x for 2025 [8] - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 11.206 billion yuan in 2024 to 21.203 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.4% [11] Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a strong presence in emerging markets, particularly in Africa and Southeast Asia, with a focus on modular energy storage solutions [7] - The company is actively expanding its production capacity in Malaysia to mitigate uncertainties related to U.S. trade policies [7] - The company’s product offerings include a comprehensive range of solutions for residential, industrial storage, and large-scale energy storage applications [6]

Core Insights - The company reported Q2 2025 revenue of 2.969 billion yuan, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 3.7% and 15.7% respectively, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 817 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.7% [1] - The company is optimistic about its emerging market strategies and the contribution of industrial storage to performance growth, maintaining a "buy" rating [1] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, inverter revenue reached 2.64 billion yuan, up 13.9% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 47.83%, an increase of 0.82 percentage points from the previous year [1] - The company shipped 763,800 inverters in H1 2025, with 315,600 being energy storage inverters, including 272,700 household storage units and 42,900 industrial storage units, the latter showing a remarkable year-on-year growth of 213% [1] - The market distribution for inverters in H1 2025 was as follows: Asia 58%, Europe 20%, Africa 12%, South America 4%, and North America 5% [1] Market Outlook - The European market is showing signs of recovery, with the completion of household storage inventory reduction and increased industrial storage demand, particularly in Eastern Europe where policy subsidies are favorable [2] - The company has tailored its 400V low-voltage system products for the Indonesian market, addressing the unique challenges of its geography, and has seen rapid growth in Australia following subsidy implementation [2] - A new commercial energy storage system solution was launched in H1 2025, featuring modular design that reduces costs by 30% [2] Employee Incentives - The company announced an employee stock ownership plan, allowing up to 800 employees to subscribe to 0.21% of the share capital at a price of 30.19 yuan per share, with performance targets set for 2025 [3] - The plan aims to enhance team cohesion and motivate core employees, with a target of achieving a net profit of 3.1 billion yuan in 2025 [3] Investment Rating - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, now expecting net profits of 3.573 billion, 4.436 billion, and 5.287 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a downward revision of 10%-12% [4] - The target price for the company's shares is set at 82.95 yuan, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 21 times for 2025, maintaining a "buy" rating [4]

Core Insights - In July 2025, China's inverter export amount was 6.505 billion yuan, showing a month-on-month decrease of 1.08% but a year-on-year increase of 16.02%, indicating a slight month-on-month adjustment while maintaining high year-on-year growth [2][3] - From January to July 2025, the cumulative inverter export amount reached 36.971 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.63%, demonstrating stable market performance [2][3] Regional Performance - **Asia**: In July 2025, inverter exports to Asia amounted to 2.054 billion yuan, with a month-on-month decrease of 22.84% and a year-on-year increase of 1.69%. The Middle East performed well, while demand from India and Pakistan declined [4] - **Europe**: Exports to Europe totaled 2.831 billion yuan in July 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 15.70% and a year-on-year increase of 28.13%, indicating stable performance [4][5] - **North America**: Exports to North America reached 235 million yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 6.27% and a year-on-year increase of 31.93%, showing a positive trend as tariff impacts stabilize [6] - **Oceania**: Exports to Oceania hit a record high of 397 million yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 60.89% and a year-on-year increase of 188.80%, indicating strong growth [6] Export Performance by Province - In July 2025, Guangdong's inverter exports were 2.441 billion yuan, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.93% and a year-on-year increase of 10.38%, while Jiangsu's exports decreased slightly due to high base effects from June [7] Investment Outlook - Long-term growth in global renewable energy installations and increasing demand for energy storage are expected to drive market expansion. Key regions include: - Europe, where large-scale storage installations are expected to accelerate [8] - The U.S., where demand for large storage projects is significant and tariff impacts are diminishing [8] - Emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and South America, which present substantial growth opportunities [8] - The Middle East, where renewable energy investments are increasing [8]

市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 08 月 28 日 星期四 [Table_Summary] 概览 策略：市场情绪受提振，风险偏好回升 电力设备：电力设备出口：变压器、开关表现亮眼，电表、电缆环比 回调 计算机：国务院印发《关于深入实施"人工智能+"行动的意见》，AI 应 用及终端落地有望提速 核心观点 【市场回顾】周三 A 股三大指数集体下跌。截至收盘，上证综指跌 1.76%，深成指跌 1.43%，创业板指跌 0.69%。全市场成交额 31,978 亿元，较上日增加 4,880 亿元。全市场超 4,700 只个股下跌。板块题 材上，CPO、稀土永磁、半导体板块涨幅居前；服装家纺、房地产、 白酒、创新药、教育板块跌幅居前。 3200 【重要新闻】 【国新办举行新闻发布会 介绍中国服务贸易发展和 2025 年服贸会 筹备工作进展情况】国务院新闻办公室于 2025 年 8 月 27 日举行新 闻发布会，介绍中国服务贸易发展和 2025 年服贸会筹备工作进展情 况。据介绍，9 月 10 日至 14 日，2025 年中国国际服务贸易交易会 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company achieved significant growth in its inverter and energy storage battery segments, with a notable increase in sales and revenue [2][3] - The company reported a revenue of 5.535 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.58%, and a net profit of 1.522 billion yuan, up 23.18% year-on-year [1] - The inverter sales reached 763,800 units in H1 2025, with a revenue of 2.644 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.90% [2] - The energy storage battery segment saw a remarkable revenue increase of 85.80% year-on-year, totaling 1.422 billion yuan in H1 2025 [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company reported operating income of 5.535 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.58%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.522 billion yuan, up 23.18% [1] - The second quarter of 2025 saw operating income of 2.969 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.65% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.70% [1] Product Performance - The inverter segment showed stable growth, with significant sales in commercial storage products, particularly in overseas markets driven by policy support [2] - The company launched new products, including off-grid energy storage inverters and expanded its energy storage solutions [2] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 13.248 billion yuan, 15.975 billion yuan, and 18.937 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 18.2%, 20.6%, and 18.5% [3][4] - Net profit projections for the same years are 3.529 billion yuan, 4.206 billion yuan, and 4.982 billion yuan, with growth rates of 19.2% for both 2025 and 2026, and 18.4% for 2027 [3][4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][39]. Core Views - In July 2025, China's inverter export amount was 6.505 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 1.08% but a year-on-year increase of 16.02%, indicating a slight month-on-month adjustment while showing strong year-on-year growth [2][13]. - From January to July 2025, the cumulative inverter export amount reached 36.971 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.63%, demonstrating stable market performance [2][13]. - The report highlights that the global renewable energy installation is rapidly increasing, leading to sustained growth in energy storage demand [10][36]. Summary by Sections Global Overview - In July 2025, the overall inverter export amount showed a year-on-year increase, with a total of 6.505 billion yuan exported [13]. Regional Performance - **Asia**: In July 2025, inverter exports to Asia amounted to 2.054 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 22.84% but a year-on-year increase of 1.69%. The Middle East performed well, while India and Pakistan saw a decline in household storage demand [2][14]. - **Europe**: Exports to Europe reached 2.831 billion yuan in July 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 15.70% and a year-on-year increase of 28.13%. The UK and Netherlands showed strong performance [3][21]. - **North America**: Exports to North America were 235 million yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 6.27% and a year-on-year increase of 31.93%, indicating stabilization of tariff impacts [4][25]. - **Oceania**: Exports to Oceania reached a record high of 397 million yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 60.89% and a year-on-year increase of 188.80% [8][26]. Export by Provinces - In July 2025, inverter exports from Guangdong, Zhejiang, Anhui, and Jiangsu were 2.441 billion, 1.543 billion, 834 million, and 987 million yuan respectively, with Guangdong showing month-on-month growth [9][31].