智通财经APP获悉，华尔街最爱用首字母缩写词来描述交易主题，包括FANG、FOMO/YOLO和TACO 等。现在，Ned Davis Research首席美国策略师Ed Clissold提出一个新的交易概念——"Big MAC"，这是 对"中期选举大戏即将到来"(Big Midterms Are Coming)的巧妙运用。Clissold旨在捕捉他认为2026年的投 资主题：今年秋季国会选举前后政策的影响。 特朗普年初发布的一系列准政策声明——大多通过社交媒体发布，几乎没有任何立法效力——表明他专 注于改善共和党在11月大选中的政治前景。这位美国总统正着力迎合精英阶层对美国"负担能力问题"的 解读。 这对股市的影响可能非常深远。以过去一周为例，特朗普要求信用卡发行商将利率上限设定在10%，甚 至不到当前平均利率的一半，此举导致银行股暴跌。特朗普还要求军工承包商停止派发股息并将资金投 入生产，也令这些公司遭受重创。周一，在特朗普政府再次攻击美联储独立性之后，美国股市震荡。 Clissold说："特朗普总统在中期选举前将重点放在了民众的负担能力上，这导致了一系列针对油价、抵 押贷款利率、信用卡利率和联邦基金利率的 ...

Group 1 - The "Big and Beautiful" Act is expected to increase the U.S. deficit by over $3 trillion in the next 10 years and reduce tax revenue significantly, raising concerns about a potential debt crisis [3][4] - The Act includes a permanent tax cut from 2017, substantial cuts to Medicaid, and a one-time increase in the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, which will worsen the fiscal outlook for the U.S. [4][5] - The Act is seen as benefiting certain industries, including fossil fuel companies, semiconductor manufacturers, and defense contractors, while negatively impacting the renewable energy sector [6][6][6] Group 2 - The Act allows for new oil and gas lease auctions in federal lands and waters, restoring lower royalty rates and increasing subsidies for carbon capture projects [6] - Tax credits for semiconductor manufacturers will increase from 25% to 35%, incentivizing domestic production of key technologies [6] - The Pentagon plans to allocate approximately $150 billion over five years for large projects, which may benefit companies like Lockheed Martin and Palantir Technologies [6]