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三大人民币汇率指数全线上行,多重利好因素或支撑人民币走强
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-10-13 03:29
Currency Exchange Rates - The three major RMB exchange rate indices all rose during the week of October 10, with the CFETS RMB index at 97.32, up 0.55, reaching a new high since April 2025 [1] - The BIS currency basket RMB index rose to 103.43, up 0.78, also a new high since April 2025 [1] - The SDR currency basket RMB index increased to 91.89, up 0.66, marking a new high since April 2025 [1] USD Performance - The US dollar index continued its strong performance, breaking the 99 mark and reaching a two-month high, closing at 98.82 with a cumulative increase of 1.13% [5] - Non-USD currencies, including the Japanese yen, British pound, euro, and Australian dollar, all depreciated against the USD, with the euro down 1.01% [5] RMB Exchange Rate Outlook - The onshore RMB closed at 7.1360 against the USD, while the offshore RMB closed at 7.1232, with the RMB central parity rate at 7.1048, up 54 basis points from the previous trading day [5] - Analysts expect the RMB central parity rate against the USD to stabilize between 7.10 and 7.11 in the short term, with the central bank focusing on the performance against a basket of currencies [5] RMB Appreciation Drivers - The current RMB appreciation cycle is primarily driven by the US Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy, which is expected to continue until mid-next year [6] - The recent rebound of the USD is seen as a passive reaction to the weakness of the euro and yen due to political instability, with further USD strength dependent on the recovery of the US labor market [6]