智通财经获悉，招商证券发布研究报告称，9月或为人民币汇率升值的观察窗口。若反内卷政策陆续推 行、有效落实，中国企业竞争格局将得到显著改善；若人民币重回6时代叠加实际有效汇率升值将放大 中国权益资产吸引力，外资大概率流入并强化通胀、内需策略，中国资产进而迎来全面重估，龙头白马 标的尤其是消费等内需资产或已迎来配置窗口。 一、国内资产"PPI—流动性框架"：PPI决定大类资产风格，流动性决定β，实际上，该框架恰恰反映了 不同宏观经济周期阶段对各类资产的影响。 国内资产"PPI—流动性四象限框架"：以流动性为横轴，决定各类资产方向；以PPI为纵轴，决定各类资 产风格。进而，第一象限"流动性扩张+PPI上行"对应经济周期中的过热场景，顺周期资产强势，债券偏 弱；第二象限"流动性收缩+PPI上行" 对应滞胀场景，短久期资产有结构性行情；第三象限"流动性收缩 +PPI下行"对应衰退场景，股弱债强，哑铃型策略占优；第四象限"流动性扩张+PPI下行"对应复苏场 景，股债双牛，但仍是哑铃型策略。2024年924之前国内资产处于第三象限；924至今年上半年国内资产 处于第四象限。 中国作为生产国，PPI很大程度决定了国内企业盈利 ...

钛媒体App 8月24日消息，招商宏观报告称，9月或为人民币汇率升值的观察窗口。去年9月美联储降息 令人民币结汇规模大增。今年9月若美联储如期降息，只要央行顺势而为，人民币汇率即会升值。7月14 日央行副行长邹澜曾表示，市场对美联储重启降息的预期升温，中美货币政策周期的错位将得到改善， 中美利差趋于收窄。这一表述似乎也隐含了中国国债收益率回升与人民币汇率升值（实际有效汇率）的 前景。若反内卷政策陆续推行、有效落实，中国企业竞争格局将得到显著改善；若人民币重回6时代叠 加实际有效汇率升值将放大中国权益资产吸引力，外资（long only）大概率流入并强化通胀、内需策 略，中国资产进而迎来全面重估，龙头白马标的尤其是消费等内需资产或已迎来配置窗口。（广角观 察） ...

招商宏观报告称，9月或为人民币汇率升值的观察窗口。去年9月美联储降息令人民币结汇规模大增。今 年9月若美联储如期降息，只要央行顺势而为，人民币汇率即会升值。7月14日央行副行长邹澜曾表示， 市场对美联储重启降息的预期升温，中美货币政策周期的错位将得到改善，中美利差趋于收窄。这一表 述似乎也隐含了中国国债收益率回升与人民币汇率升值的前景。若反内卷政策陆续推行、有效落实，中 国企业竞争格局将得到显著改善；若人民币重回6时代叠加实际有效汇率升值将放大中国权益资产吸引 力，外资大概率流入并强化通胀、内需策略，中国资产进而迎来全面重估，龙头白马标的尤其是消费等 内需资产或已迎来配置窗口。 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题报告 2025 年 08 月 23 日 PPI、人民币汇率与中国资产重估 一、国内资产"PPI—流动性框架"：PPI 决定大类资产风格，流动性决定 β，实际上，该框架恰恰反映了不同宏观经济周期阶段对各类资产的影响。 二、PPI 何时转正？反内卷影响几何？ 三、若人民币汇率重回 6 时代，中国资产或迎全面重估 相关报告 宏观专题报告 1、《全球产能周期或已进入 "购设备"阶段》2025-08-18 2、《关税对美国经济的影响几 何？》2025-08-16 3、《央国企科技创新系列报告 之五———央国企产业布局与 "十五五"规划前瞻研究》 2025-08-03 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 王泺宾 S1090523070007 wangluobin@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 专题报告 ❑ 国内资产"PPI—流动性四象限框架"：以流动性为横轴，决定各类资产 方向；以 PPI 为纵轴，决定各类资产风格。进而，第一象限"流动性扩张 +PPI 上行"对应经济周期中的过热场景，顺周期资产强势，债券偏弱 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, which may improve the misalignment of monetary policy cycles between China and the U.S. and lead to a narrowing of interest rate differentials [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has not mentioned "timely reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate cuts" in the recent Politburo meeting, suggesting that China may not follow the Fed's rate cuts in the second half of the year [1] - Currently, the DR007 is at its lower limit, indicating potential short-term pressure on liquidity-sensitive assets [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Looking ahead, if the interest rate differentials between China and the U.S. narrow and the RMB appreciates, combined with a year-on-year bottoming out of the Producer Price Index (PPI), domestic assets may gradually shift from a "dumbbell strategy" to focus on inflation and domestic demand [1]

Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB central parity rate has shown a gradual appreciation since July, with the rate breaking 7.14, indicating a strong upward signal[2] - The USD/CNY exchange rate has fluctuated around 7.17, reflecting a "strong central rate, weak spot rate" dynamic[7] - The central parity rate has increased by 0.23% since July 1, 2025, reaching a low of 7.1385, the lowest since November 2024[7] Cross-Border Capital Flows - In the first half of 2025, the net inflow of foreign exchange was $30.89 billion, with a trade surplus of $43.57 billion from January to June[24] - The average active settlement rate for export enterprises was 47.13% in the first half of 2025, down from 48.37% in the same period of 2024[26] - The forward settlement scale increased by $44.33 billion from April to June 2025, indicating expectations of RMB appreciation[28] Foreign Investment and Market Sentiment - Foreign investment in domestic stocks and funds reached a net increase of $10.1 billion in the first half of 2025, reversing a two-year trend of net selling[34] - The net inflow from securities investment projects was $18.06 billion in the first half of 2025, with a surplus of $7.736 billion in June alone[38] Risk Factors - Potential risks include fluctuating U.S. tariff policies, unclear Federal Reserve interest rate paths, and the impact of non-U.S. currency movements on the RMB[40] - The average holding cost of the "waiting for settlement" funds is approximately 7.05, with a total scale of about $400 billion as of June 2025[32]

Domestic Economic Insights - High-frequency data indicates a year-on-year improvement in export volumes, but a potential slowdown is expected if the RMB appreciates in the second half of the year[2] - Industrial enterprise profit growth in June shows a narrowing decline, highlighting the need for structural adjustments[2] - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated, reaching a peak in June and July, preparing for a potential rise in interest rates and RMB appreciation[6] Factors Supporting RMB Appreciation - Economic growth exceeded targets in the first half, with a focus on structural adjustments in the second half[2] - Anticipated meetings between European and American leaders with Chinese counterparts in Q3 may influence market dynamics[2] - The depreciation of the USD could lead to increased domestic prices, making Chinese assets more attractive to foreign investors[2] International Trade Developments - Several countries have reached trade negotiation agreements with the US, with tariffs not exceeding 20%, which is more sustainable compared to previous threats[6] - The progress in tariff negotiations has alleviated some pressure on the US, allowing for greater leverage over countries that have not yet reached agreements[6] - The third round of US-China negotiations in Sweden is likely to pave the way for a future meeting between the two nations' leaders[6] Monetary Market Trends - The liquidity environment experienced fluctuations, with a shift from tight to neutral conditions, influenced by significant demand for funds and central bank operations[21] - The average weekly rate for DR001 decreased by 2.556 basis points to 1.443%, while DR007 increased by 0.226 basis points to 1.535%[21] - The net issuance of government bonds is projected to decrease significantly next week, with a planned issuance of approximately 517.75 billion CNY[22]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in the RMB to USD exchange rate have implications for individuals involved in studying abroad, traveling, or engaging in foreign trade [1] Group 1: Exchange Rate Changes - On July 24, the RMB appreciated slightly against the USD, with the central bank's midpoint rate rising by 46 basis points compared to the previous trading day [2] - The difference between onshore and offshore exchange rates narrowed to just 1.6 basis points, the lowest this year, indicating a convergence of domestic and international exchange rates [2][4] Group 2: Reasons for Appreciation - The appreciation of the RMB is attributed to stable domestic economic growth, strong export resilience, and increased foreign trade enterprise settlements, leading to a surplus of USD in the market [4] - Concurrently, adjustments in the USD index and fluctuations in US economic data have weakened the dollar's upward momentum, contributing to the RMB's appreciation [4] Group 3: Implications for Currency Exchange - The current slight appreciation of the RMB means lower costs for exchanging USD, making it a favorable time for those needing to pay tuition or make purchases in USD [4] - Individuals are advised to monitor the exchange rate trends around the Federal Reserve's meetings, as continued weakness in the USD could lead to further appreciation of the RMB [4] Group 4: Impact of Narrowing Exchange Rate Spread - The reduced spread between onshore and offshore rates suggests smoother cross-border capital flows and increased market stability, benefiting everyday consumers by minimizing exchange rate losses during overseas transactions [5] - This stability allows for more predictable costs in cross-border shopping, studying abroad, and foreign trade settlements [8] Group 5: Recommendations for Currency Exchange - It is crucial for specific groups, such as students studying abroad, tourists, and those with USD loans, to stay informed about exchange rate changes [7] - Individuals are encouraged to check the daily midpoint rate and bank exchange rates before converting currencies to secure better rates [7]

7月24日，人民币兑美元汇率中间价调升29个基点至7.1385，较月初累计调升149个基点，来到2024年11 月6日以来的最高水平。 7月以来，明显波动的美元指数走势，难以预测的美联储降息步调以及海外经贸形势变化，这些都未影 响到人民币汇率的平稳走势。美国经济数据的超预期表现并未扭转市场对"弱美元"预期的强化，我国在 持续向好的经济基本面支撑下，人民币汇率升值动能进一步积蓄。在受访专家看来，人民币汇率或稳中 趋升，应把握好人民币国际化的有利时机，进一步推进人民币的结算和计价功能。 "弱美元"预期持续强化 作为全球金融市场的风向标，美联储货币政策走向愈发扑朔迷离，但"弱美元"预期仍在强化。 美国经济数据的超预期表现并未有力推升美元升值——美元指数在7月上旬短暂反弹后，7月17日以来再 度走弱。截至7月23日，美元指数跌至97.20，相较年初累计贬值幅度接近11%。 关税政策对通胀的影响已成为掣肘美联储降息的主要因素之一。美联储6月发布的《货币政策报告》强 调，当前通胀压力仍存。美国国内钢铁和铝价相较于全球价格大幅上涨，关税政策带来的成本推动效应 是重要原因。 从美国与主要经济体的关税谈判近况看，虽然日美经贸谈 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the Hong Kong stock market and its potential for revaluation in the context of global economic conditions and fiscal policies [1][2][11]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Global Economic Support**: Global fiscal expansion is expected to support economic growth in the second half of 2025, despite trade headwinds from rising tariffs [1][4]. - **Tariff Impact**: The weighted average tariff in the U.S. rose to 10% in June 2025, with potential increases to 20% if new tariffs are fully implemented, which could marginally slow global trade [3][5]. - **Hong Kong Asset Appeal**: The expectation of a stronger Renminbi (RMB) is likely to enhance risk appetite for Hong Kong assets, benefiting from a weaker U.S. dollar [1][10]. - **Stablecoin Opportunities**: The development of stablecoins is anticipated to create new opportunities in Hong Kong's financial ecosystem, increasing market liquidity and product diversity [1][13]. - **Market Sentiment Recovery**: The Hong Kong stock market is expected to see reduced negative pressures in Q3 2025, with potential early market recovery driven by new tariff negotiations and the rise of competitive Chinese industries [1][15]. Additional Important Content - **Daily Trading Volume**: The average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is projected to approach HKD 250 billion, positively correlated with the strength of the RMB [3][26]. - **Foreign Capital Inflow**: There has been a notable inflow of foreign capital into the Hong Kong market, particularly in the context of AI and IPOs, although not as significant as in 2017-2018 [18]. - **Southbound Capital**: Southbound funds now account for 40% of trading in connect stocks, indicating a balanced importance of domestic and foreign capital in the Hong Kong market [19]. - **Banking Sector Recovery**: Major banks in Hong Kong are expected to see a recovery in performance, with valuations currently low compared to international peers [33]. - **Brokerage Sector Growth**: The brokerage sector has experienced significant growth in IPO and refinancing activities, with expectations of continued performance improvement [34]. - **Real Estate Trends**: The Hong Kong real estate market shows signs of stabilization after a prolonged downturn, with recent increases in transaction volumes and rental prices [36][40]. Conclusion - The Hong Kong stock market is entering a new phase of revaluation, supported by global fiscal policies, potential currency appreciation, and the development of new financial products. The outlook for various sectors, including banking, brokerage, and real estate, appears positive, with significant opportunities for investors to capitalize on emerging trends and market dynamics [1][11][24].