Summary of the Conference Call on the Infant Formula Industry Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **infant formula food industry in China**, particularly following the implementation of the new national standards for infant formula in February 2023, which provides a regulatory framework for formula registration [1][3] - The new standards emphasize nutritional requirements, product safety, and production process regulations, prompting companies to reapply for formula registration to comply with these standards [1][4] Key Insights and Arguments - The report includes sections on **industry overview, supply chain analysis, competitive landscape, and company profiles** [2] - A comparison between the new national standards and EU standards highlights differences in mandatory vitamins and minerals, indicating varying safety and quality requirements across regions [3] - The market demand for infant formula is declining due to a decrease in birth rates, with the birth rate dropping from **1.0% in 2019 to 0.64% in 2023**, resulting in a reduction of newborns from **14.67 million to 9.02 million** [4][6] - The market size for the infant formula industry decreased from **197.29 billion yuan in 2019 to 176.08 billion yuan in 2023**, with a projected decline to **112.86 billion yuan by 2028**, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of **-2.8%** and **-8.5%** respectively [6] Market Dynamics - The demand for infant formula is expected to drop below **350,000 tons** due to the shrinking population of infants, which will negatively impact market growth [7] - The pricing structure of infant formula is categorized into three segments: - Ordinary formula (below 300 yuan) - High-end formula (300-400 yuan) - Super high-end formula (above 400 yuan) - High-end and super high-end products account for **50.5%** of the overall market despite only holding **35%** of the market share [7] Supply Chain Analysis - The supply chain consists of upstream raw material suppliers, midstream manufacturers, and downstream sales channels, including both online and offline platforms [8] - The number of dairy cows in China is increasing slowly, impacting the supply of milk, which is a primary ingredient in infant formula [9] Competitive Landscape - The competition between foreign and domestic brands is intensifying, with foreign brands like **Mead Johnson and Wyeth** holding over **75%** of the market share, especially in first-tier cities [12] - Domestic brands are increasing their investment in research and quality control to improve their product offerings and adapt to market demands [13] - The new national standards require different stages of formula to have independent standards, affecting the formulation of proteins, fats, and carbohydrates [13] Future Outlook - The market is expected to see a significant shift as nearly one-third of brands may exit the market, solidifying the dominance of leading domestic brands [14] - The concentration of production facilities is skewed towards northern regions, with **119 domestic factories** registered compared to **35 foreign factories** [14] - Leading companies like **Feihe, Junlebao, and Yili** are expanding their production capabilities and product lines to capture market share [15] Conclusion - The infant formula industry in China is facing challenges due to declining birth rates and increasing competition, but there is potential for growth in high-end product segments as consumer preferences shift towards quality and safety [11][16]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the infant formula industry Core Insights - The infant formula market in China has undergone significant changes, with a market size of 1,957.92 billion RMB in 2019, which decreased to 1,768.75 billion RMB in 2023 due to declining birth rates [7] - The new national standards for infant formula, effective from February 22, 2023, emphasize safety and quality, requiring companies to submit formula registrations that comply with these standards [4][17] - The market is expected to stabilize, with a projected size of approximately 1,128.85 billion RMB by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of -8.85% [7] Market Background - Infant formula is designed to meet the specific nutritional needs of infants and young children, mimicking breast milk or adjusting formulas for special medical needs [4][5] - The evolution of the infant formula market in China can be divided into four key stages, from initial development to rapid growth and diversification [6] Market Status - The supply of infant formula is supported by a steady increase in the number of dairy cattle, with the number of cows rising from 91.38 million in 2019 to 105.09 million in 2023 [8] - The demand for infant formula is declining due to a decrease in the birth rate, with 9.02 million newborns in 2023, leading to a reduced consumer base [9][10] Market Competition - The competition in the infant formula market is intensifying, with domestic brands like Feihe and Yili gaining market share against international brands like Mead Johnson and Wyeth [16] - The report identifies ten leading brands in the market, including Wyeth, Nestlé, and Mead Johnson, evaluated based on product approval, financing progress, market penetration, innovation, and compliance [11][12][13][15] Development Trends - The industry is moving towards innovative formulations that enhance the nutritional profile of infant formula, focusing on multi-component synergy rather than single-component additions [32] - Technological advancements in production processes are ensuring the stability and bioactivity of nutrients in infant formula [33] - There is a growing emphasis on clinical evidence and research to validate the effectiveness of infant formula in real-world settings [34] - The industry is also focusing on providing comprehensive nutritional support for infants with special medical needs, reflecting a commitment to social responsibility [35]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the infant formula food industry Core Insights - The infant formula food market is experiencing significant changes due to the implementation of new national standards, which emphasize nutritional safety and production process standardization [9][10] - Domestic brands dominate the market, with approximately 80% of new formula registrations being from local companies, reflecting a shift in consumer trust towards domestic products [10][24] - The market size of the infant formula food industry has been declining, with a compound annual growth rate of -2.51% from 2019 to 2023, and projections indicate a further decline from 2024 to 2028 [27][28] Industry Definition - Infant formula food is designed for infants aged 0-3 years, aiming to meet their specific nutritional needs through a combination of dairy and plant-based ingredients [1][2] - The products are categorized based on the age of the infant, including infant formula (0-6 months), follow-up formula (6-12 months), and toddler formula (12-36 months) [3][4][6] Industry Characteristics - The industry is characterized by a unified core standard between China and Europe, with specific details varying [7] - The new national standards have ushered in a new era of balanced nutrition for infant formula, prompting companies to invest in research and development [9][10] - The market is witnessing a significant shift towards high-quality, high-value products, particularly in lower-tier cities where consumer demand is growing [26][30] Industry Development History - The infant formula food industry has evolved through several phases, including foundational development, the introduction of foreign technology, and recent innovations [11][12][13] - The industry has seen increased regulation and standardization, particularly following the melamine scandal in 2008, which led to a focus on quality and safety [15][16] Industry Chain Analysis - The industry chain consists of raw material suppliers, manufacturing enterprises, and distribution channels, forming a complete ecosystem [17][18] - Key players in the upstream supply chain include companies that ensure high-quality milk sources through controlled farming practices [18][21] - The midstream sector has seen a significant shift, with many older factories exiting the market and new entrants emerging under the new standards [19][20] Market Size and Trends - The market size for infant formula food has decreased from 195.792 billion RMB in 2019 to 176.875 billion RMB in 2023, with projections indicating a further decline [27][28] - The decline in birth rates has directly impacted the market, with fewer infants leading to reduced demand for formula [28] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is increasingly concentrated, with domestic brands like Feihe and Yili gaining market share against foreign brands [34][36] - The new national standards are expected to further elevate the market entry barriers, leading to a consolidation of brands and an increase in market share for leading domestic companies [37]