出品：新浪财经上市公司研究院 作者：木 2025年上半年，贝因美提交了一份增利不增收的成绩单，公司营收为13.55亿元，同比下降4.37%；归母净利润为0.74亿元，同比增长43.68%。 这份不算理想的成绩单背后的根本原因，或是由于公司过度依赖奶粉产品，而奶粉产品销售承压，其他产品，如米粉、用品类产品销售额增速可观，但是销售占比较低，对整体业绩提振效果有限 值得关注的是，为助力降低家庭生育养育成本，国家宣布面向育儿家庭全国范围全面直接发放现金补贴，但随之而来的是消费者对于部分母婴品牌产品应声涨价的质疑，贝因美便是被质疑涨价的 主业承压、奶粉销售额下滑致营收下降 只赚5%背后公司营销费用率直逼30% 贝因美贝因美创立于1992年，主要从事婴幼儿配方奶粉、营养米粉和其他婴幼儿辅食、营养品的研发、生产和销售。作为曾经少数没有检测到"三聚氰胺"的国产奶粉，其市占率达到过国产奶粉 2025年上半年，公司营收同比下降4.37%至13.55亿元，分业务来看，公司营收下滑主要还是奶粉产品销售额下降所致，虽然米粉、用品类产品销售额增速可观，但是该两部分产品销售占比较 报告期内，公司奶粉类产品营收12.09亿元，同比下降4.4 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 出品：新浪财经上市公司研究院 作者：木 这份不算理想的成绩单背后的根本原因，或是由于公司过度依赖奶粉产品，而奶粉产品销售承压，其他 产品，如米粉、用品类产品销售额增速可观，但是销售占比较低，对整体业绩提振效果有限。除此之 外，我们看到公司营销开支进一步增长，销售费用率直逼30%，但依旧难拉动营收的同步增长。 值得关注的是，为助力降低家庭生育养育成本，国家宣布面向育儿家庭全国范围全面直接发放现金补 贴，但随之而来的是消费者对于部分母婴品牌产品应声涨价的质疑，贝因美便是被质疑涨价的品牌之 一。国家育儿补贴发布后，贝因美相关产品平台补贴退坡是否偶然之举尚未可知，但是通过此次事件或 也反映出贝因美终端定价方面的问题。 主业承压、奶粉销售额下滑致营收下降 只赚5%背后公司营销费用率直逼30% 贝因美贝因美创立于1992年，主要从事婴幼儿配方奶粉、营养米粉和其他婴幼儿辅食、营养品的研发、 生产和销售。作为曾经少数没有检测到"三聚氰胺"的国产奶粉，其市占率达到过国产奶粉第一，2011年 登陆资本市场成为"国产奶粉第一股"。但在中国飞鹤、达能及海外品牌 ...

Group 1: Business Focus and Strategy - The company will focus on core business areas, balancing both export and import operations while enhancing its own brand development and supporting brands on third-party platforms [1][2][11] - The company aims to maintain a prudent management strategy, optimize services, and continuously explore new marketing channels and models [1][2][11] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders was -5.88 million yuan, an improvement of 48.34% compared to -11.38 million yuan in the same period last year [11][37] - As of June 30, 2025, the net cash flow from operating activities was 59.53 million yuan [5][6] Group 3: Market and Revenue Breakdown - The company's revenue from cross-border import business was 2.428 billion yuan, accounting for 92.29%, while export business revenue was 190 million yuan, accounting for 7.23% [18] - Revenue by market region shows that Asia accounts for 92.77%, North America for 6.29%, Europe for 0.92%, and Oceania for 0.02% [10] Group 4: Shareholder and Stock Information - As of September 10, 2025, the total number of shareholders was 250,289 [7] - The company repurchased 10,298,800 shares in 2024, with a total expenditure of 15,096,950 yuan [3] Group 5: Future Outlook and Challenges - The company is exploring the integration of artificial intelligence and big data into its operations to enhance business capabilities [2][11] - The company is closely monitoring policy changes and their potential impacts on its business, particularly regarding currency fluctuations and tariffs [13][14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [8] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 9.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 9.15 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.03 billion yuan, down 46% [1][2] - The decline in revenue is attributed to competitive pressures in the industry, consumer subsidies for childbirth, and inventory reduction efforts [2] - The gross margin decreased to 61.6%, down 6.3 percentage points, primarily due to an increased proportion of sales from raw milk products [3] - The company has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, distributing a mid-term dividend of 1 billion yuan, representing a 100% payout ratio [4] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 19.04 billion, 19.99 billion, and 20.83 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -8.2%, +5.0%, and +4.2% respectively [5] - The forecasted net profit for the same period is 2.31 billion, 2.60 billion, and 2.98 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -35.4%, +13.0%, and +14.6% respectively [5] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 0.25 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.71 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The infant formula milk powder market in China is experiencing a significant transformation, with leading companies showing recovery in performance despite an overall decline in the domestic market [1][5]. Group 1: Market Trends - The domestic milk powder market is still in a downward trend, but top companies are seeing a rebound in their performance [1]. - The infant formula industry is showing signs of improvement, with a 1.5% year-on-year increase in sales from January to July 2025 [5]. - The market is becoming increasingly competitive, prompting domestic milk powder companies to explore international markets [2][4]. Group 2: Company Performance - Ausnutria Dairy (01717.HK) reported a 65.7% year-on-year increase in overseas revenue from its goat milk powder brand, with overseas revenue share rising from 16.1% to 25.9% [2]. - Yili (600887.SH) achieved a 14.3% year-on-year increase in revenue from its milk powder and dairy products, with infant formula sales also showing double-digit growth [5]. - China Feihe (06186.HK) expanded its presence in North America, with products now in over 1,500 large supermarkets, marking a 270% increase in store count [3]. Group 3: International Expansion - More domestic milk powder companies are joining the trend of international expansion, with Mengniu Dairy (02319.HK) reporting over 20% revenue growth from its Bellamy's brand in Southeast Asia [3]. - Ausnutria plans to enter new markets in Egypt and Iraq, as well as expand into high-birth-rate regions like India and Southeast Asia [3]. - The overseas business of Ausnutria is expected to maintain high double-digit growth, potentially exceeding 1 billion yuan in revenue [3]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Foreign brands are also experiencing significant growth, with Danone reporting an 11.3% year-on-year increase in sales in China, North Asia, and Oceania [6]. - The market is seeing a shift towards higher concentration, with leading brands gaining market share amid a backdrop of declining birth rates [7]. - Online sales of milk powder increased by 10.2% year-on-year, while offline sales decreased by 2.1%, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Mengniu Dairy's sale of its Yashili New Zealand factory to A2 Milk Company is part of a broader strategic adjustment among dairy companies in response to challenges such as oversupply in the Australian and New Zealand infant formula market and changes in the Chinese market structure [1][2][4] Group 2 - The Australian and New Zealand infant formula industry is facing significant oversupply pressures, driven by a declining birth rate in China and the rise of local milk powder brands, leading to reduced demand for imported products [2] - Several companies, including Synlait and A2 Milk, are proactively adjusting their strategies, with Synlait shifting its Pokeno factory to plant-based products and A2 Milk selling its loss-making Mataura Valley Milk nutrition factory [2] - Mengniu's sale of the Yashili New Zealand factory is seen as a strategic move to optimize its asset structure and improve resource allocation efficiency, recovering approximately NZD 282 million in cash [3] - Despite the sale, Mengniu maintains control over Yashili's operations in Asia, which are expected to show stronger growth potential due to more concentrated resources [3] - Mengniu's infant formula business is recovering, with double-digit sales growth reported for its Ruibaoen brand in China and over 20% growth for Bellamy's in overseas markets [3] - The article suggests that the ongoing industry adjustments will likely lead to more similar transactions, emphasizing the importance of timely decision-making and strategic focus for companies [4]

Core Viewpoint - China Feihe has demonstrated resilience in the face of industry challenges, maintaining its position as the leading player in both the Chinese and global infant formula markets, with a focus on quality and social responsibility [4][6][8]. Group 1: Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, China Feihe reported total revenue of 9.15 billion and a net profit of 1.033 billion [4]. - The company continues to hold the largest market share in the infant formula sector, achieving first place in both the Chinese and global markets for six and four consecutive years, respectively [7][8]. - Despite industry pressures, the company has not compromised on product quality, maintaining a strong brand trust among consumers [9]. Group 2: Quality Control and Production - China Feihe has established a complete industrial chain for infant formula since 2006, ensuring strict control over milk sources [10]. - The company operates 13 farms with over 100,000 cows located in the world's prime milk-producing region, ensuring high-quality milk supply [11]. - The production facilities adhere to stringent pharmaceutical-grade standards, with air purification levels comparable to those in hospital ICUs [12]. Group 3: Social Responsibility and Innovation - The company has proactively reduced channel inventory to maintain product freshness and has introduced a 1.2 billion yuan maternity subsidy plan to support families [13][14]. - China Feihe has invested nearly 100 million yuan over six years to establish the only industrial production line for lactoferrin in China, breaking foreign monopolies [15]. - The company has diversified its product offerings, launching adult milk powder and other health-focused products targeting various demographics [16][17]. Group 4: Financial Health and Shareholder Returns - China Feihe maintains a high asset ratio of fixed assets, which has historically been between 25% and 28% of total assets, indicating a robust operational leverage [22][24]. - As of June 30, the company reported cash reserves of 6.477 billion and structured deposits of 10.387 billion, with total bank borrowings under 1 billion, reflecting strong liquidity [24]. - The company announced a mid-year dividend of 0.1209 HKD per share, with total dividends expected to exceed 2 billion yuan annually, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [25][30].

Core Viewpoint - The competition for the title of "number one" in the infant formula market is intensifying between Yili and Feihe, with both companies claiming leadership based on different metrics and timeframes [2][5][8]. Group 1: Yili's Performance - Yili's market share in the infant formula segment reached 18.1% in the first half of 2025, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, marking a historic breakthrough for the company [2]. - Yili's total revenue from its milk powder business, including adult milk powder, was 16.578 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.26% [2]. - The company aims to leverage its growth in infant formula to create more consumer touchpoints through its recently launched fertility subsidy program [12]. Group 2: Feihe's Performance - Feihe reported a revenue of 9.151 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a decline of 9.36% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1 billion yuan, down 46.66% [9]. - The company attributed its performance decline to a strategy focused on reducing channel inventory and the impact of a 1.2 billion yuan fertility subsidy program launched in March 2025 [10]. - Feihe's market position remains strong in terms of overall channel sales and market share, but the recent performance indicates challenges ahead [5][10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The competition between Yili and Feihe has intensified, with both companies experiencing contrasting performance trends in the first half of 2025 [8][12]. - Feihe's previous dominance in the market, established through targeted marketing strategies, is now being challenged by Yili's aggressive growth tactics [8]. - Analysts predict that the impact of Feihe's fertility subsidy will be more pronounced in the second half of the year, complicating its ability to meet annual performance targets [12].

Core Viewpoint - HSBC Research projects that China Feihe (06186) will maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.4% in revenue and 5.5% in earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) from 2025 to 2028, driven by favorable government population policies [1][1][1] Financial Performance - For the interim period of 2025, China Feihe reported revenue of 9.15 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.03 billion yuan, with cash and cash equivalents amounting to 6.48 billion yuan, indicating a solid operational foundation [1][1][1] Shareholder Returns - Based on robust performance and strong cash flow, China Feihe plans to utilize no less than 1 billion yuan for share repurchases and anticipates distributing approximately 1 billion yuan in dividends for the interim period of 2025, with a total dividend distribution of no less than 2 billion yuan for the year 2025, enhancing earnings per share through active buybacks [1][1][1]

Core Viewpoint - HSBC Research projects that China Feihe (06186) will maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.4% in revenue and 5.5% in earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) from 2025 to 2028, driven by favorable government population policies benefiting the infant formula sector [1][1][1] Financial Performance - For the interim period of 2025, China Feihe reported revenue of 9.15 billion yuan and net profit of 1.03 billion yuan, with cash and cash equivalents amounting to 6.48 billion yuan, indicating a solid operational foundation [1][1][1] Shareholder Returns - Based on robust performance and strong cash flow, China Feihe plans to utilize no less than 1 billion yuan for share buybacks and anticipates distributing approximately 1 billion yuan in dividends for the interim period of 2025, with a total dividend distribution of no less than 2 billion yuan for the year 2025, enhancing earnings per share through active buybacks and significant financial leverage effects [1][1][1]