周一，美国国债收益率上行引发市场对房贷利率进一步上升的担忧，房屋建筑及家装相关股票普遍承 压，拖累整个房地产板块下行。分析人士指出，若收益率持续攀升，抵押贷款成本可能上扬，从而令美 国房地产市场的低迷态势延续。 根据道琼斯市场数据，截至周一收盘，美国两大追踪房屋建筑行业的ETF，iShares美国房屋建筑 ETF(ITB.US)与SPDR标普房屋建筑商ETF(XHB.US)均下跌约2.1%，双双创下自9月下旬以来的最低收盘 水平。 市场压力的核心在于，美债收益率上行。10年期美国国债收益率周一上升4.3个基点至4.16%，为9月26 日以来最高水平，同时也是自9月中旬以来的最大单日涨幅。当前，由于美国政府仍处于停摆状态，市 场对财政与经济前景的担忧正在推高债券收益率。 家居建材零售巨头同样受到拖累。家得宝(HD.US)股价下跌1.45%，劳氏(LOW.US)下跌1.9%，两者均有 望录得自8月11日以来的最低收盘价。 抵押贷款利率通常会追随美债收益率变动。收益率上升意味着潜在购房者的融资成本将增加，这不仅可 能让租房者延迟置业计划，也让现有房主更不愿出售换房，从而抑制市场交易量。 为刺激购房需求，房屋建筑商不 ...

本报驻美国特约记者 冯亚仁 戴润芝 本报记者 李迅典 徐嘉彤 编者的话：查理·柯克遇刺事件过去几周在美国持续发酵，并加剧社会撕裂。作为美国总统特朗普的盟 友、"让美国再次伟大"（MAGA）阵营最具影响力的网红之一，柯克18岁便创立保守派青年活动家组 织"美国转折点"，通过线上病毒式视频传播和线下校园辩论，在全美大学推广保守主义。该组织已拥有 800多个分会、25万学生会员和全网上千万社交媒体追随者，连白宫助理新闻秘书泰勒·罗杰斯都坦 言："正是'美国转折点'让我走进政治，它塑造了我的职业方向。"透视该组织的壮大过程，我们可以看 到其背后由保守派基金与富豪金主构筑的资金链条，以及其如何娴熟运用社交媒体、文化战争等手段， 影响着美国年轻一代的政治观念。这些都是未来数年值得特别关注的美国政治与社会现象。 十年募资3.89亿美元，金主是谁？ 查理·柯克以强大的募资能力闻名。美国《福布斯》杂志援引美国国税局的数据报道称，在"美国转折 点"2012年成立后的第一年，它仅获得了7.9万美元的捐款。而十年后，随着柯克个人影响力的提升，该 组织年度募资飙升至8000万美元，增长约千倍。 "美国转折点"的第一笔捐款为1万美元，来 ...

【环球时报驻美国特约记者 冯亚仁 戴润芝 环球时报记者 李迅典 徐嘉彤】编者的话：查理·柯克遇刺事 件过去几周在美国持续发酵，并加剧社会撕裂。作为美国总统特朗普的盟友、"让美国再次伟 大"（MAGA）阵营最具影响力的网红之一，柯克18岁便创立保守派青年活动家组织"美国转折点"，通 过线上病毒式视频传播和线下校园辩论，在全美大学推广保守主义。该组织已拥有800多个分会、25万 学生会员和全网上千万社交媒体追随者，连白宫助理新闻秘书泰勒·罗杰斯都坦言："正是'美国转折 点'让我走进政治，它塑造了我的职业方向。"透视该组织的壮大过程，我们可以看到其背后由保守派基 金与富豪金主构筑的资金链条，以及其如何娴熟运用社交媒体、文化战争等手段，影响着美国年轻一代 的政治观念。这些都是未来数年值得特别关注的美国政治与社会现象。 十年募资 3.89 亿美元，金主是谁？ 查理·柯克以强大的募资能力闻名。美国《福布斯》杂志援引美国国税局的数据报道称，在"美国转折 点"2012年成立后的第一年，它仅获得了7.9万美元的捐款。而十年后，随着柯克个人影响力的提升，该 组织年度募资飙升至8000万美元，增长约千倍。 "美国转折点"的第一笔捐 ...

Core Insights - The influence of Che Jianxing, the founder of Red Star Macalline, on the listed company Meikailong (601828.SH) is diminishing following his recent detention and resignation as general manager [2][3] - A new management team has been appointed to lead Meikailong under a "new five-year strategy" after Che Jianxing's departure [3][4] Company Developments - Che Jianxing received a salary of 5.2451 million yuan in 2024, ranking first among executives, despite being detained for two months earlier this year [3] - After Che Jianxing's detention, he resigned from his position as general manager on July 18, 2023, while still serving as an executive director [3] - The new general manager, Shi Yaofeng, has been appointed following Che Jianxing's resignation [3] Shareholding Changes - Xiamen Jianfa Group became the largest shareholder of Meikailong by acquiring 29.95% of its shares, while Che Jianxing's Red Star Group holds 24.9% [3] - The control of Meikailong is tightening under the major shareholder Jianfa Group following Che Jianxing's detention [3] Business Strategy - The new management team, led by Li Yupeng, aims to restructure the home furnishing business and ensure that core categories occupy at least 70% of the operational area [4] - The company has established a retail network covering 189 cities, with a total operational area of 19.36 million square meters [4] - The strategy emphasizes targeting the 400 million young consumers as a key driver for consumption upgrades and aims for a digital transformation [4] Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Meikailong reported a revenue of 3.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 21%, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 1.9 billion yuan [5] - The average occupancy rate for the 76 self-operated stores was 84.2%, while the 235 managed stores had an average occupancy rate of 81.3% [5] - The loss was primarily due to a 2.1 billion yuan fair value loss on investment properties [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the reliability of brokerage recommendations, particularly focusing on Home Depot (HD), and suggests that while the average brokerage recommendation (ABR) indicates a positive outlook, it may not be a reliable basis for investment decisions due to potential biases from brokerage firms [1][2][7]. Group 1: Brokerage Recommendations - Home Depot has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.66, indicating a consensus between Strong Buy and Buy, with 67.6% of recommendations being Strong Buy and 2.7% being Buy [2]. - The ABR is based on recommendations from 37 brokerage firms, but studies show limited success in using these recommendations to identify stocks with the best price increase potential [2][3]. - Brokerage analysts tend to exhibit a strong positive bias in their ratings, with five "Strong Buy" recommendations for every "Strong Sell" [3][7]. Group 2: Zacks Rank Comparison - Zacks Rank is a proprietary stock rating tool that categorizes stocks from Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) to Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell) and is based on earnings estimate revisions, which are correlated with near-term stock price movements [5][8]. - The Zacks Rank is more timely and reflects the latest earnings estimates, while the ABR may not be up-to-date [9]. - Home Depot currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating a cautious outlook despite the positive ABR [10][11]. Group 3: Investment Implications - The unchanged Zacks Consensus Estimate for Home Depot at $15.03 suggests that analysts have steady views on the company's earnings prospects, which may lead to performance in line with the broader market [10]. - Given the Zacks Rank and the cautious outlook, it may be prudent to be cautious with the Buy-equivalent ABR for Home Depot [11].

尽管股息持续增长，但该股的派息率约为62%，仍为未来的股息增长留下空间。虽然消费者支出在严峻 的经济环境下有所放缓，但家得宝预计，在截至明年1月的财年中，可比销售额仍将增长1%。除了稳健 的股息增长之外，家得宝强大的品牌、良好的财务状况同样令该股成为一个颇具吸引力的长期投资选 择。 智通财经APP获悉，有分析人士指出，对于持有家得宝(HD.US)股票的投资者来说，该股股息未来有望 持续增长。数据显示，家得宝一直在稳步提高股息，季度股息目前已升至每股2.30美元，较2020年的 1.50美元增长了53%。截至9月12日的数据显示，该股股息率为2.18%。 ...

Group 1 - The company, Fusenmei, has 12 self-operated stores located in Chengdu, covering a total area of over 1.25 million square meters [1] - The company also manages 4 franchised stores in Meishan, Luzhou, and Zigong, with a total area exceeding 300,000 square meters [1]

Core Insights - Arthur M. Blank, co-founder of Home Depot, has transitioned from retail to sports and investment, now focusing on his family office, AMBFO, which manages his wealth and business affairs [1][2][3] - The appointment of Andrea DeMarco as the new CEO of AMBFO signifies a commitment to professional management and the continuation of wealth growth and legacy for the Blank family [2][3] Company Overview - Home Depot, founded by Blank and Bernie Marcus, revolutionized the home improvement retail sector with its warehouse-style stores and a focus on DIY services, growing from $22 million in revenue in 1981 to $2.8 billion by 1990 [7][8] - The company currently operates over 2,300 stores in North America, with projected revenues exceeding $159.5 billion in 2024, maintaining its position as the largest home improvement retailer globally [8] Business Empire - The Blank family's business interests extend beyond Home Depot, encompassing sports teams like the Atlanta Falcons and Atlanta United, as well as various real estate and entertainment ventures [9][10][12] - The AMB Sports & Entertainment company, under Blank's leadership, has seen significant growth, with the Atlanta Falcons valued at approximately $2.2 billion [9] Philanthropic Efforts - The Arthur M. Blank Family Foundation, established in 1995, has donated over $1 billion to various causes, emphasizing education, healthcare, and community development [21][24] - Blank's commitment to philanthropy includes a pledge to donate at least 95% of his family's wealth to charitable causes, reflecting a strong focus on social responsibility [24]

Core Viewpoint - Home Depot's customers are postponing large home renovation projects due to economic and interest rate concerns, focusing instead on smaller projects [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Home Depot reported quarterly revenue of $45.28 billion, an increase from the previous year but slightly below analysts' expectations of $45.41 billion [4]. - The company's stock price rose by 3.17% during midday trading, making it a leading stock in the Dow Jones index [4]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are delaying large renovation projects that typically require financing, while smaller projects can be paid for in cash [2][3]. - Despite a slowdown in the real estate market, consumers are steadily pursuing small home improvement projects, supported by a relatively affluent customer base, with 80% being homeowners [3][4]. Group 3: Economic Context - The Federal Reserve has maintained high interest rates between 4.25% and 4.5% since late 2024, contributing to consumer hesitance regarding large projects [3]. - Inflation remains a concern, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 2.7% in July, and the threat of stagflation is growing [3].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The U.S. real estate market is currently experiencing historically low transaction volumes, approximately 4 million units, which is close to levels seen during the financial crisis, indicating a potential demand backlog [1][4] - Despite high interest rates, U.S. housing prices are expected to continue rising from 2023 to 2025, with a 50% increase compared to five years ago, suggesting a healthy real estate cycle [1][6] Company Insights: Home Depot (嘉德宝) - Home Depot's stock has increased 15 times since 2008, with recent financial reports showing a revenue growth of 2.8% and same-store sales growth of 1%, although net profit has slightly declined [1][7] - The company anticipates benefiting from continued interest rate cuts over the next decade, with a slow increase in small residential construction, but overall renovation volumes remain below average [1][8] - Home Depot currently holds over 30% market share in the U.S. home improvement retail sector, with expectations to exceed 40% in the next decade due to market expansion [1][9] Market Dynamics - The U.S. stock market has begun to speculate on real estate recovery stocks, including Home Depot, Lowe's, and Open Door, with Open Door's stock surging 40% following comments on interest rate cuts [1][10] - Companies in the tool chain and outdoor power equipment (OPE) sectors in China and Hong Kong, such as Giant Star Technology and Greebo, are expected to benefit from partnerships with Home Depot, leading to increased orders [1][11] Economic Context - High interest rates have raised concerns about a hard landing for the U.S. economy, but the Federal Reserve believes the impact on the economy and inflation is limited [1][5] - The current 30-year mortgage rate is at 7.3%, with potential for further decline, which could stimulate the housing market [1][3] Future Expectations - The upcoming quarters are expected to see strong performance in the home improvement retail sector, with Home Depot and Lowe's anticipating a 10% increase in procurement for the third quarter [1][12] - Companies are adapting to new tariffs by relocating production to avoid additional costs, with Stanley Black & Decker implementing a 20% price increase to offset impacts [1][13][14] Investment Considerations - Long-term investors are encouraged to consider entering real estate chain-related stocks, as the market is in the early stages of a significant upward cycle, with potential for profit margin recovery as demand increases [1][15]