Workflow
工业X射线检测装备
icon
Search documents
东兴首席周观点:2025年第32周-20250809
Dongxing Securities· 2025-08-09 13:14
Group 1: Gold Supply Dynamics - The global mined gold supply has shown a declining trend since 2013, with an average annual production of approximately 3,574 tons over the past decade[2] - The average growth rate of mined gold production from 2015 to 2019 was +2.0%, but it has slowed to +0.5% from 2020 to 2024[2] - In 2024, the global mined gold production growth rate is expected to rebound to 0.7%, still remaining at a low level compared to the past decade[2] Group 2: Gold Recycling and Costs - The average growth rate of recycled gold supply over the past decade is 2.3%, with the highest growth of 15.5% in 2016 and the lowest at -12.2% in 2021[3] - In 2024, recycled gold production is projected to increase by 10.9% to 1,369 tons, accounting for 27.5% of total gold supply[3] - The global gold mining total sustaining cost reached a historical high of $1,456 per ounce in Q3 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 9%[3] Group 3: Gold Demand Trends - Global gold consumption has risen to an average of 4,338 tons over the past decade, with a significant increase of 6.4% to 4,616 tons in the last three years[4] - In 2023, total gold demand reached a historical high of 4,951 tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.8%[4] - The top five gold-consuming countries account for over 70% of total demand, with China and India contributing approximately 30% and 24% respectively[5] Group 4: Central Bank and ETF Demand - Central bank gold purchases increased by 140% in 2022 to 1,080 tons, marking a historical high, and continued to exceed 1,000 tons in 2023[6] - By May 2025, global central bank gold reserves reached 36,234 tons, with China's reserves at 2,292 tons, representing 6.5% of its total foreign reserves[6] - The total holdings of gold ETFs reached 3,560.4 tons by April 2025, with a potential recovery in annual growth expected[7]