固定收益专题报告 逻辑一：P/NAV 回归到均值附近，配置价值逐渐显现。 自去年年初以来，伴随二级市场的强劲上涨，全市场 P/NAV 估值水平已从 均值-2 倍标准差的低位，启动了一轮持续的修复行情。25 年 7 月以来随着 市场整体调整，P/NAV 震荡下行，目前已回落至历史均值+1 倍标准差以内 的合理区间，长期资金配置窗口已打开。 逻辑二：基本面仍是核心，估值修复阶段业绩好的板块反弹动能更强。 复盘 10 月 21 日以来的市场表现，涨幅领先的为数据中心（5.34%）、保租 房（3.81%）、消费（3.28%）和市政环保（3.02%）板块。这些板块在三季 度运营情况较为稳健，成为市场资金在估值修复过程中优先配置的重点。 REITs 配置窗口渐进，聚焦三季报韧性主线 核心结论 【核心结论】 当前 REITs 市场经历回调后估值趋于合理，对于长期配置型资金而言具备 较高的投资性价比，可把握优质项目的逢调整配置机会。建议以三季度业绩 为依据，沿两条主线布局：一是基本面韧性较强的板块，如数据中心、保租 房等；二是四季度业绩有望实现环比改善的 REITs，如受益于国庆假期及"双 十一"促销活动的奥莱项目。 此外， ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the stable profitability and cash flow improvement in the municipal environmental sector, driven by debt reduction and water price adjustments, leading to opportunities in high-dividend environmental assets. Recommended companies include Hanlan Environment, Xingrong Environment, Green Power, Junxin Co., Yongxing Co., Hongcheng Environment, Conch Venture, Everbright Environment, and Yuehai Investment [4][27]. - The transportation sector's carbon reduction initiatives are fully underway, with the biodiesel industry expected to benefit significantly from policies such as the EU RED3, which will increase demand for biodiesel in road transport, shipping, and aviation [4][33]. - AI empowerment is driving secondary growth in the municipal environmental sector, with significant potential in waste management and autonomous sanitation. The integration of AI in waste-to-energy projects can enhance profitability and cash flow, with examples showing net profit increases of 83% to 146% [4][27]. Group 2 - The report details the stable revenue and income from municipal water and solid waste services, which are essential for urban operations. The typical operating model involves exclusive rights for 25-30 years, ensuring long-term revenue stability [10][11]. - Water price adjustments are accelerating, with various regions implementing increases that can enhance the profitability of water companies. For instance, cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen have proposed significant price hikes, with increases ranging from 13% to 31% [19][21]. - The report provides a summary of high-dividend companies in the environmental sector, showcasing their market capitalization, PE ratios, net profits, and dividend rates, indicating a trend towards higher shareholder returns [9][24]. Group 3 - The report emphasizes the expected increase in free cash flow for municipal environmental companies due to a significant decline in capital expenditures (Capex), which is projected to enhance dividend rates over time [25][27]. - Specific companies are recommended based on their growth potential and dividend stability, including Hanlan Environment, Xingrong Environment, Junxin Co., Yongxing Co., and Hongcheng Environment, each with unique strengths in their respective markets [27][28]. - The biodiesel industry is set to expand significantly due to EU policies that broaden the scope of renewable energy requirements across various transport sectors, indicating a robust growth trajectory for companies involved in biodiesel production [33][34].

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of newly listed public REITs has significantly declined, contrasting sharply with the high subscription multiples during their issuance, with some even falling below their issue prices [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The overall public REITs market has been sluggish, with trading volume and turnover rates decreasing since August, leading to lower new issuance returns [4][5]. - As of November 10, the CSI REITs total return index has dropped by 5.32% in the second half of the year [2]. - Several newly listed REITs have shown poor performance post-listing, with some experiencing minimal price increases or even declines [3][4]. Group 2: Specific REIT Performance - A software park REIT listed on November 6 opened below its issue price and has remained in a state of decline, closing at 3.596 yuan, below the issue price of 3.66 yuan [2]. - Other newly listed REITs have also struggled, with one only achieving a 3.5% increase over its first seven trading days [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The sentiment in the REITs market is affected by the performance of underlying assets and the overall market conditions, leading to a "divided" situation in new issuance returns [5][6]. - Analysts suggest focusing on three main lines in the secondary market: stable anti-cyclical sectors, assets with marginal recovery in demand, and those with strong expansion demands from original equity holders [7].

Group 1: Report's Overall Situation - The report is a weekly review of public REITs from November 3 - 7, 2025, focusing on market trends, investment opportunities, and risks in the REITs sector [1][10] - The overall market is weak, with the China Securities REITs Total Return Index closing at 1041.51 points, down 0.40% for the week, affected by factors such as weak fundamentals, share unlocks, and secondary offerings [10] - As of Friday, the total market capitalization of 77 listed REITs in China was 220.6 billion yuan, with a floating market capitalization of 110.9 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Secondary Market Overall Performance - After the third - quarter reports, the REITs sector continued to show divergence, with 33 rising, 1 falling, and 43 falling. Industrial parks and warehousing logistics led the decline with a 1.8% drop, while the municipal environmental protection sector led the gain with a 0.65% increase [2][19] - REITs trading sentiment weakened, with average daily trading volume, average daily turnover, and average daily turnover rate decreasing by 13.43%, 10.45%, and 0.05 percentage points respectively compared to the previous period [22] Sub - sectors - **Industrial Parks**: The sector continued to face pressure in the third - quarter reports, with significant divergence in individual bond fundamentals. Some projects' occupancy rates dropped to 60 - 70%. The average distribution rate of the sector has increased to 4.60%. Consider playing the oversold opportunities of some individual bonds, such as CICC Liandong Kechuang REIT [28] - **Rental Housing**: The sector was dragged down by China Resources Youchao REIT, which fell 3.21% this week. The project plans to conduct a secondary offering through private placement to original holders, which may bring risks such as price decline and equity dilution. However, the sector's liquidity is good, and the distribution rate has increased from 2.83% at the end of June to 3.14%, so it is still worthy of attention [31] - **Transportation Facilities**: Continue to focus on road assets in the eastern regions such as Huatai Jiangsu Expressway, China Merchants Expressway, etc. Note that three highway REITs will have large - scale share unlocks in November, which may bring trading pressure [34] - **Consumer Infrastructure**: It is the golden season for consumer REITs in the fourth quarter. Focus on projects with high distribution rates, stable leasing performance, and large consumption potential, such as Shanghai Bailian Consumer, Beijing Wumei Consumer, and Capital Outlets [5][36] - **Municipal Environmental Protection**: Guotai Haitong Jinan Energy Heating REIT performed best this week, rising 2.25%. Pay attention to the heating duration and heat source procurement price adjustment during the heating season [38] Group 3: Primary Market Shan Zheng Jinzhong Public Investment Ruiyang Heating REIT - On November 6, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued a review opinion. Key concerns include heat source procurement (stability and unit price) and heating fee income (historical and predicted shutdown rates, "same - city, same - price" policy, etc.) [43] Other Upcoming Issuance Projects - As of November 7, 2025, there are about 3 potential issuance projects remaining this year. Currently, 1 is ready for sale after pricing (Huaxia Anbo Warehousing Logistics), 7 have received exchange feedback, and 1 has been accepted by the exchange [44] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - **Industrial Parks**: Consider the oversold opportunities of CICC Liandong Kechuang REIT, which has an occupancy rate of over 90% in the third - quarter report, and also pay attention to Guotai Haitong Dongjiu New Economy and Guotai Haitong Lingang Innovation Industrial Park [28] - **Rental Housing**: Focus on high - distribution - rate projects such as Shanghai Real Estate Rental Housing, Shekou Rental Housing, and Xiamen Anju, which fell significantly last week [4] - **Consumer Facilities**: In the fourth quarter, focus on high - distribution - rate, stable - leasing, and high - consumption - potential projects such as Shanghai Bailian Consumer, Beijing Wumei Consumer, and Capital Outlets [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the third-quarter performance of 73 REITs, highlighting the differentiated operational resilience across various sectors and regions, with a focus on short-term operational stability [2][4]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The industrial park sector shows structural resilience in core areas, while facing challenges in second-tier cities due to intensified market competition [4][8]. - The logistics and warehousing sector continues to exhibit operational resilience among projects linked to key tenants and leading operators [4][12]. - The rental housing sector maintains operational resilience, with some market-driven projects experiencing slight rental declines but improved occupancy rates [4][12]. - The consumer sector's listed REITs show stable performance, although some projects experience seasonal fluctuations [4][12]. - Data centers report high utilization rates, indicating stable short-term operational performance [4][12]. - Highway projects see increased traffic volumes in Q3, influenced by seasonal factors and ongoing network changes [4][12]. - Municipal environmental and energy projects generally report growth, with some experiencing challenges due to resource fluctuations and grid absorption pressures [4][12]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The overall distributable amount for Q3 increased by 19.6% quarter-on-quarter, although it declined by 1.2% year-on-year [5]. - The municipal environmental sector outperformed others, followed by energy, consumer, rental housing, highways, logistics, and industrial parks [5]. - The average completion rate for disclosed projects in 2025 is 28%, aligning with market expectations [5]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights Industrial Parks - Core area projects maintain high occupancy rates, while second-tier city projects face challenges, with Hefei High-tech REIT's occupancy rate dropping to 71.6% [8][10]. - Rental levels are under pressure, with significant declines in some projects, indicating a competitive environment [8][11]. Logistics and Warehousing - Projects with high proportions of related tenants show strong stability, while market-driven projects exhibit volatility [12][13]. - Some projects, such as Shunfeng REIT, report a decline in occupancy rates due to increased competition [12][13]. Municipal Environmental and Energy - Most municipal environmental projects report growth, with specific projects benefiting from price adjustments [4][12]. - Energy projects show mixed performance, with hydroelectric projects recovering while wind and solar face challenges [4][12].

Group 1 - The municipal environmental protection sector is characterized by stable profitability, improved cash flow, and opportunities in environmental dividend assets due to debt reduction and water price adjustments. High dividend stocks are emerging in the municipal water and solid waste sectors, with companies like Guangdong Investment, Yongxing Co., Hongcheng Environment, and others recommended for investment [4][30][28] - The integration of AI is driving secondary growth in the municipal environmental protection sector, particularly through solid waste management and AI Data Centers (AIDC). The collaboration between waste incineration and AIDC can significantly enhance profitability and cash flow for waste management companies [4][34][37] - The report highlights the acceleration of water price adjustments across various regions, with 17 areas having raised water prices since January 2024. This trend is expected to enhance the profitability of water service companies [18][20][21] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of stable revenue and income in municipal water and solid waste operations, which are essential for urban functioning. The cost structure primarily consists of depreciation, amortization, and labor costs, ensuring long-term profitability through a franchise model [17][9] - The report outlines a significant reduction in capital expenditures (Capex) within the municipal environmental sector, leading to improved free cash flow and dividend rates. This trend is expected to continue as the industry matures [23][25] - The introduction of a 12 trillion yuan debt reduction plan is anticipated to benefit the environmental protection sector, particularly companies with high dividend yields and significant accounts receivable, such as Hongcheng Environment and Yongxing Co. [27][28]

Group 1: Core Views - The macroeconomic environment in China is expected to remain under pressure in 2024, with a weak recovery phase, but there are structural resilience highlights in the REITs market [2][4] - The average performance completion rate of public REITs projects exceeded 100%, indicating stable performance realization [2][3] - The forced dividend characteristic of public REITs is emphasized, with an average of 2 dividend distributions expected in 2024 [2][3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The operating resilience of REITs projects is attributed to controllable asset supply-demand contradictions, alignment with policy directions, and stable payment terminal projects [2][4] - The average rental income of second-tier industrial park projects is projected to decline by 5.4% year-on-year, while first-tier parks are adopting strategies to maintain occupancy rates [5][6] - The logistics real estate market is experiencing a short-term adjustment, with average effective rent declining by 4.0% year-on-year [7][8] Group 3: Investment Structure - Institutional investor participation in public REITs reached a record high of 96.45%, with brokerage firms becoming a significant pricing force [3][4] - The insurance sector's participation remained stable compared to the previous year, indicating a cautious approach to incremental allocation [3][4] Group 4: Sector Performance - Retail properties are entering a phase of stock competition, with over half of key cities experiencing a decrease in vacancy rates, although rental prices remain under pressure [9][10] - The rental housing market is seeing increased supply, but listed projects are maintaining operational resilience, with overall income growth of 0.6% year-on-year [10][11] - Toll revenue for expressways is under pressure due to various factors, but there is a gradual improvement in performance observed in Q4 2024 [12][13]