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固收+系列报告之九:公募 REITs2026 年投资展望:攻守之道与价值掘金
Guoxin Securities· 2025-12-30 05:26
证券研究报告 | 2025年12月29日 2025年12月30日 固收+系列报告之九 公募 REITs2026 年投资展望:攻守之道与价值掘金 市场复盘:自首批公募 REITs 2021 年上市以来,我国公募 REITs 一级认购 倍数呈现显著波动走势,整体波动由产品供给稀缺性、市场情绪及资产类型 收益预期共同驱动。二级市场收益表现介于沪深 300 与中证全债之间,与中 证转债的股债混合属性形成互补,不同年份收益位次因底层资产、利率、政 策及市场环境差异而显著分化。从长期特征看,REITs 波动率低于沪深 300 和中证转债,高于中证全债,且与其他资产收益相关度低,兼具债性稳定与 股性弹性,适合平衡组合波动。 机构配置:当前公募 REITs 流通盘的持有主体高度集中,机构投资者主导, 券商自营是绝对主力,占比达 51.3%;其次是保险资金(19.9%)和产业资本 (13.6%),以上三类机构投资者合计占比超 84%;私募基金(5.5%)、信托 (3.6%)、其他资管(3.7%)等占比相对较低,个人投资者、公募基金、券 商资管、银行理财的持有比例均不足 1%。不同类型公募 REITs 的流通盘持有 人结构呈现显 ...
公募REITs周度跟踪:超跌反弹,申报加速-20251227
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-12-27 08:20
2025 年 12 月 27 日 超跌反弹,申报加速 ——公募 REITs 周度跟踪(2025.12.22-2025.12.26) 相关研究 《中核水电 REIT 认购倍数续创新高 ——公募 REITs 周度跟踪 (2025.12.15-2025.12.19)》 2025/12/20 《板块分化调整,中核水电 REIT 即 将询价——公募 REITs 周度跟踪 (2025.12.8-2025.12.12)》 2025/12/13 《新版行业清单出炉,基础设施 REITs 再扩围!——公募 REITs 周 度跟踪(2025.12.1-2025.12.5)》 2025/12/06 债 券 周 评 ⚫ 事件扰动因素减弱。本周一、周二延续上周跌势,自上周一至本周二累计跌幅 4.35%;周 三、周四市场情绪反转,分别强势反弹 2.33%、0.99%,推动指数回升至上周二、三水平, 但未完全回补前期跌幅;周五则再度小幅回落。分板块来看,本轮事件冲击下的行情演绎 中,交通、能源、环保水务三类经营权 REITs 前期跌幅居前,修复后整体仍录得下跌,分 别-4.03%、-2.81%、-2.91%;而仓储、数据中心、产业园前期调 ...
北京甲级写字楼市场延续回暖态势,空置率持续回落
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-12-26 13:28
全联房地产商会写字楼分会执行会长、房讯指数CORC首席研究员刘凯认为,当前商业地产市场正站 在"内卷"与"进化"的十字路口,商业办公市场的企稳回升仍然需要一个过程。 刘凯提出,未来中国写字楼产业园行业需要六大范式变革:一是产品范式从"以产品为中心"到"以用户 为中心",二是经营范式从"增量扩张"到"存量优化",三是运营范式从"空间改造"到"城市更新",四是资 产范式从公募REITs到资产数字化,五是科技范式从"互联网+"时代到"AI+"时代,六是竞争范式从"内卷 式"竞争到"竞合式"共赢。 产业园领域的供需情况同样受到关注。根据房讯指数CORC统计,当前全国产业园区总建筑面积已突破 60亿平方米,每年新增供应量1.4亿平方米,实际需求增速低于供给扩张速度。目前全国省级以上开发 区平均空置率超35%,部分新建园区甚至达到60%。我国产业园市场需求开始从数量扩张向质量提升发 展,从城市功能区集聚向产业功能集聚发展,从传统行业导向向新质生产力导向发展。 21世纪经济报道记者李莎 北京报道 日前,中国写字楼产业园发展论坛第22届年会在北京举行,主题 为"内卷与进化:商业办公的范式变革"。 北京市投资促进服务中心党组成 ...
固定收益周报:REITs配置窗口渐进,聚焦三季报韧性主线-20251210
Western Securities· 2025-12-10 13:13
固定收益专题报告 逻辑一:P/NAV 回归到均值附近,配置价值逐渐显现。 自去年年初以来,伴随二级市场的强劲上涨,全市场 P/NAV 估值水平已从 均值-2 倍标准差的低位,启动了一轮持续的修复行情。25 年 7 月以来随着 市场整体调整,P/NAV 震荡下行,目前已回落至历史均值+1 倍标准差以内 的合理区间,长期资金配置窗口已打开。 逻辑二:基本面仍是核心,估值修复阶段业绩好的板块反弹动能更强。 复盘 10 月 21 日以来的市场表现,涨幅领先的为数据中心(5.34%)、保租 房(3.81%)、消费(3.28%)和市政环保(3.02%)板块。这些板块在三季 度运营情况较为稳健,成为市场资金在估值修复过程中优先配置的重点。 REITs 配置窗口渐进,聚焦三季报韧性主线 核心结论 【核心结论】 当前 REITs 市场经历回调后估值趋于合理,对于长期配置型资金而言具备 较高的投资性价比,可把握优质项目的逢调整配置机会。建议以三季度业绩 为依据,沿两条主线布局:一是基本面韧性较强的板块,如数据中心、保租 房等;二是四季度业绩有望实现环比改善的 REITs,如受益于国庆假期及"双 十一"促销活动的奥莱项目。 此外, ...
REITs三季报专题:REITs三季报综述:运营仍在分化,博弈预期改善
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2025-11-17 11:43
Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the REITs industry [1] Core Insights - The REITs industry is experiencing operational divergence, with varying performance across different sectors. The overall market sentiment is improving, creating potential investment opportunities despite ongoing pressures [5][6] - The total market capitalization of the REITs industry is approximately 2170.96 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 1109.16 billion yuan [1] Summary by Sections Industrial Park Sector - The industrial park sector faces significant pressure due to oversupply in major cities, leading to a general decline in rental rates and occupancy [5][12] - Increased competition and a rise in supply have resulted in a downward trend in revenue and EBITDA for many projects [12] - Some projects are adjusting strategies, such as lowering rents and offering customized services to attract tenants [5][12] Warehousing and Logistics Sector - Demand is differentiated, with essential industries like pharmaceuticals and e-commerce supporting occupancy rates, while small tenants show weak demand [5] - The sector is experiencing rental pressure due to increased supply in many regions [5] Affordable Rental Housing Sector - This sector remains the most stable, with occupancy rates consistently above 90% and minimal rental fluctuations [5] - Demand is driven by new citizens and corporate employees, providing strong resilience against market changes [5] Consumer Sector - The consumer sector shows stable occupancy rates above 90%, benefiting from asset upgrades and marketing strategies [5] - Rental income performance varies, with shopping centers seeing growth while outlet and farmer's market types face short-term fluctuations [5] Highway Sector - The highway sector has seen improved traffic volumes due to seasonal travel, although attention is needed on network diversion impacts [5] - Revenue growth is primarily driven by increased passenger traffic during peak travel seasons [5] Municipal Utilities Sector - Core indicators vary significantly due to industry characteristics, influenced by seasonal cycles and policy adjustments [5] Energy Sector - Performance heavily relies on resource endowments and policies, with national subsidy mechanisms being a key variable affecting distributable amounts [5] Data Center Sector - The customer base is primarily large enterprises, maintaining high occupancy and billing rates, indicating stable cash flow [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that despite ongoing pressures, there are structural opportunities for investment, particularly in fundamentally sound assets. It recommends considering projects with reasonable valuations and potential for recovery [5]
2026年公募REITs首发及扩募市场策略展望:洞悉分化常态,深耕价值本源
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-11-16 12:15
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the public - offering REITs market expanded in quality under normal - state issuance. With the dual - wheel drive of "first - offering + expansion - offering", the total market capitalization exceeded 220 billion yuan, and the market ecosystem became more mature. In 2026, it is expected to issue 20 - 30 projects, and the differentiation among projects will intensify [3][11]. - Expansion - offering is an inevitable path for the development of China's public - offering REITs market. In 2025, the expansion - offering channel reopened, and in 2026, with policy implementation and process optimization, it may become another main line in the market [3]. - The secondary market of REITs in 2025 showed a "rising first and then falling" trend. To improve liquidity, policy support is expected, such as including REITs in the Shanghai - Hong Kong and Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect, launching REITs - ETF and index fund products, and guiding long - term funds like annuities and pensions to enter the market [3]. - The fundamentals of different asset types of REITs have shown different trends. Investors should select Alpha assets to make investment decisions [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1.审度首发新常态,洞见估值新平衡 - **2025 First - offering Situation** - From January to October 2025, 19 REITs started the recruitment process, with an average of 2 per month, slower than in Q4 2024. The total first - offering scale was 38.7 billion yuan, about 40% less than in 2024. Two new IDC - REITs were added, enriching the asset types [3][11]. - The net - underwriting and online subscription yields of REITs were calculated. The net - underwriting yield was significantly higher than the online yield. The net - underwriting yield of 10 - 200 million yuan of funds was the highest, reaching 3.50% [13][15]. - The strategic placement of REITs in 2025 had a 100% winning rate and an average floating profit of 35%. The number of strategic investment institutions increased to 275, a 6% increase from 2024 [3]. - The number of new - offering products increased to nearly a thousand, and the winning rate dropped below 1%. In October, due to limited initial listing gains and overlapping fundraising periods, the enthusiasm for new - offering decreased, and the winning rate rebounded [20][22]. - In terms of institutional participation, 270 institutions participated in the net - underwriting inquiry, a 69% increase from 2024. Among them, the number of securities firms, insurance funds, private funds, and public funds increased significantly. Insurance funds led in terms of the proposed subscription amount, followed by securities firms [28]. - The strategic placement became more difficult for institutions to obtain. The number of strategic placement institutions per REIT reached a new high, indicating increased scarcity [34]. - **Valuation and Pricing** - From January to October 2025, the first - day and first - four - day closing cumulative increases of REITs reached new highs. However, since September and October, as the first - offering valuation increased, the initial listing gains narrowed, and the net - underwriting quotation became more cautious [39]. - From January to September 2025, the first - offering valuation had an average discount of 25%. Since October, the discount rate has significantly narrowed to less than 10%, and even less than 5% for some projects [40]. - **2026 First - offering Expectations** - Policy support is expected to expand the market and increase the number of asset types. The approval efficiency will be improved, and the average time from acceptance to registration will be shortened to 100 days [45][57]. - The expected number of first - offerings in 2026 is 20 - 30, with a relatively small average fundraising scale. The differentiation among projects will intensify, and the initial listing gains are expected to narrow to 5% - 10% [64][71]. - Under the neutral scenario, the net - underwriting and online new - offering yields of 10 - million - 100 - million - yuan funds are expected to be 3.21% and 0.61% respectively [75]. 3.2.扩募潮起谋新篇,资产混装开新局 - **Importance of Expansion - offering** - Due to high - dividend requirements and leverage limitations, expansion - offering is an important way for the external expansion of public - offering REITs. It can optimize the asset portfolio and improve the anti - risk ability [81]. - **Policy Changes** - In September 2025, the 782nd document shortened the expansion - offering threshold from 12 months to 6 months and supported cross - industry asset mixing, which is expected to shorten the expansion - offering cycle and enrich the asset types [86]. - **2025 Expansion - offering Situation** - After the first four REITs' expansion - offerings in 2023, the expansion - offering channel reopened in 2025. By October, 2 REITs' expansion - offering shares were listed, 3 were in the process, and 3 were under review. The issuance methods were diversified, including private placement and rights offering [90]. - The returns of investors participating in the expansion - offering mainly come from the market discount at the time of issuance and the increase in the dividend rate. The initial batch of expansion - offering projects had losses in the bidding and strategic placement, but 2 projects still had floating profits by the end of October [93][94]. - **Potential Expansion - offering Projects** - Many original equity holders of listed REITs hold potential expansion - offering assets. There are currently 5 expansion - offering projects in progress, and the AVIC Jingneng Photovoltaic REIT is the first project with mixed - asset expansion (photovoltaic + hydropower) [100][101]. - **Case Studies of Expansion - offering Projects** - The Beijing Affordable Housing REIT's expansion - offering assets are slightly inferior in quality to the first - offering assets, but the overall dividend rate is expected to increase [109]. - The AVIC Jingneng Photovoltaic REIT's expansion - offering of "photovoltaic + hydropower" is expected to significantly increase the net profit, EBITDA, and distributable amount in 2026, and the cash distribution rate will also increase [117]. - The Huaxia China Resources Commercial REIT plans to expand by purchasing the Suzhou Kunshan Mixc project. After the expansion, the 2026 combined predicted dividend rate is expected to increase by 0.23 pct [119]. 3.3.长钱定盘亦凝滞,活水破局方致远 - **2025 Market Review** - In 2025, the REITs market showed a "rising first and then falling" trend. The first half was supported by the low - interest rate environment, while the second half was affected by factors such as stock market diversion, rising interest rates, unlocking pressure, and weakening fundamentals. In Q4, some defensive assets' performance was excellent, and some configuration funds began to enter the market [122][124]. - **Investor Structure** - As of the first half of 2025, securities firms and insurance companies dominated the REITs market. Their "heavy - configuration, light - trading" strategy restricted the secondary - market liquidity. Different types of institutions had different configuration preferences [128]. - **Measures to Improve Liquidity** - Including REITs in the Shanghai - Hong Kong and Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect, launching REITs - ETF and index fund products, and guiding long - term funds like annuities and pensions to enter the market are expected to improve the market liquidity [131]. 3.4.基本面殊途已现,精选Alpha定乾坤 - **Affordable Housing REITs** - In the past five quarters, the affordable housing REITs showed a pattern of "stable quantity and differentiated price". In 2026, the rental market will be affected by factors such as supply and tenant preferences in different regions. Rents in first - tier cities are expected to decline slightly, while those in core second - tier cities may stabilize or rise slightly [137]. - **Consumption REITs** - In 2025, the consumption REITs' operation was stable. The rental rate and collection rate remained high, and the rental efficiency fluctuated seasonally. With the adjustment of the supply - demand relationship and the release of new consumption demands, the asset managers of REITs adjusted the tenant mix. The increase in CPI in October is expected to support the valuation of consumption REITs [140].
破发三天仍未“回正”,公募REITs打新不香了?
证券时报· 2025-11-11 05:02
Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of newly listed public REITs has significantly declined, contrasting sharply with the high subscription multiples during their issuance, with some even falling below their issue prices [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The overall public REITs market has been sluggish, with trading volume and turnover rates decreasing since August, leading to lower new issuance returns [4][5]. - As of November 10, the CSI REITs total return index has dropped by 5.32% in the second half of the year [2]. - Several newly listed REITs have shown poor performance post-listing, with some experiencing minimal price increases or even declines [3][4]. Group 2: Specific REIT Performance - A software park REIT listed on November 6 opened below its issue price and has remained in a state of decline, closing at 3.596 yuan, below the issue price of 3.66 yuan [2]. - Other newly listed REITs have also struggled, with one only achieving a 3.5% increase over its first seven trading days [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The sentiment in the REITs market is affected by the performance of underlying assets and the overall market conditions, leading to a "divided" situation in new issuance returns [5][6]. - Analysts suggest focusing on three main lines in the secondary market: stable anti-cyclical sectors, assets with marginal recovery in demand, and those with strong expansion demands from original equity holders [7].
公募 REITs 三季度报点评:分化加剧,博弈修复
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-11-06 07:51
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In Q3 2025, infrastructure REITs sectors showed a pattern of intensified differentiation, both between sectors and within different projects of the same sector [3]. - The affordable housing sector was the most stable, with most projects achieving positive revenue growth due to rising occupancy rates and rents. The municipal environmental protection sector also performed well, with overall revenue indicators rising year - on - year, showing a trend of increasing volume and price. In contrast, the industrial park sector continued to decline, with supply - demand imbalance remaining a major problem. The warehousing sector faced marginal pressure, and the energy sector's operating data in Q3 was also poor [3]. - After the release of REITs Q3 reports, the differentiation in operating performance was also reflected in the secondary - market. Pay continuous attention to the structural opportunities of high - quality targets supported by oversold repair and institutional allocation demand. Oversold repair and institutional allocation demand are still important supports for the REITs market, but opportunities are mainly concentrated in high - quality projects, and weak projects may face a supplementary decline. Also, pay attention to the rhythm of market repair and prevent the risk of oversold repair turning into over - rising [3]. Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs 1. Affordable Housing - The affordable housing sector maintained stable operations with strong bond - like attributes. Most projects achieved positive revenue growth, but some market - oriented rental projects had controllable performance fluctuations. For example, the Beijing affordable housing project's new expansion assets significantly increased revenue, while the Shenzhen Anju and Suzhou Hengtai projects saw a decline in EBITDA [6]. - Specific projects' data on revenue, EBITDA, distributable amount, occupancy rate, rent pricing, and other indicators are presented in detail in Figures 1, 2, and 3 [7][8][9]. 2. Warehousing - The warehousing sector faced marginal pressure. Projects with a high proportion of related - party transactions had relatively more stable operating performance, while market - oriented projects were affected by new warehouse entries. For example, in the CICC Puluosi, Huaxia Shenguoji, and Huatai Zijin Baowan projects, occupancy rates fluctuated due to new supplies [10]. - The SF project's operation was stable, but its profitability indicators weakened due to the cancellation of lease contracts by former tenants. The occupancy rate of the Hongtu Innovation Yantian Port REIT in Q3 2025 declined marginally due to a tenant's early termination of business [10]. - Figures 4, 5, 6, and 7 show detailed data on the profitability and operating indicators of warehousing projects [11][12][13][14]. 3. Consumption - The consumption sector remained stable overall, with most projects actively adjusting and reforming, and most revenue indicators rising. However, some projects with a high correlation between rent and performance had a slight decline in profitability due to seasonal factors. For example, the Shouchuang Outlet project had a slow - sales season in spring and summer, but its cumulative operating data in 2025 exceeded the comparable forecast data in the project's issuance - stage evaluation report [15]. 4. Industrial Park - Not provided in the given content 5. Transportation - Not provided in the given content 6. Energy - Not provided in the given content 7. Municipal Environmental Protection - Not provided in the given content 8. New Infrastructure - Not provided in the given content 9. Investment Suggestions - Not provided in the given content
季报凸显分化,市场放量反弹:公募REITs2025Q3业绩总结及10月市场分析
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-11-03 09:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q3 2025, utility - type assets performed best, rental - housing and consumer - type assets were stable, while warehousing & logistics and transportation - type assets were weak and differentiated, and the industrial park sector still had a large year - on - year decline, with only partial quarter - on - quarter decline narrowing; the energy sector also declined significantly overall [3]. - In October, the market rebounded with increasing trading volume, high - performance assets led the gains, the interest spread widened significantly, and the valuation recovered to above the 60th percentile [3]. - The premium rate space on the first - day listing narrowed, and the expansion and registration of Huaxia China Resources Youchao REIT were completed [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weak - cycle Performance is Robust and Strong - cycle Sector is Generally Under Pressure - Except for the energy sector, "weak - cyclical" varieties had overall stable performance in Q3. Utility, consumer, and rental - housing sectors achieved year - on - year positive growth in revenue, EBITDA, and distributable amount. The energy sector, affected by factors such as electricity price liberalization, seasonal fluctuations, and unit maintenance, generally saw a decline in performance (except for Huaxia TBEA New Energy REIT) [8]. - In contrast, "strong - cyclical" assets were generally under pressure. The industrial park sector had a significant decline in performance, with EBITDA and distributable amount declining by over 10% year - on - year, and over 80% of individual bonds experiencing performance decline. The transportation sector's overall performance decline widened, while the overall decline in revenue and EBITDA of the warehousing & logistics sector was small and showed a converging trend [8]. 3.2 Sub - sector Analysis 3.2.1 Rental - housing - Rental - housing rents had little overall fluctuation but were slightly differentiated; the occupancy rate and collection rate remained at a high level. Xiamen Anju had continuous quarter - on - quarter rent growth for 4 quarters, while Chengtou Kuanting Rental - housing and Shekou Rental Housing had continuous rent declines. Beijing Baozhangfang's overall rent declined after expansion, and its collection rate slightly decreased in Q3 2025 [12]. - Xiamen Anju had excellent performance, with revenue, EBITDA, and distributable amount showing year - on - year positive growth for 4 consecutive quarters, and its EBITDA profit margin was relatively high. Chengtou Kuanting had positive growth in revenue and EBITDA in the past 2 quarters, with a Q3 increase of 7% - 8%. Huaxia China Resources Youchao's revenue and EBITDA both declined year - on - year in Q3 [16]. 3.2.2 Utility - Shougang Biomass benefited from the expansion of kitchen waste sources and the improvement of power generation efficiency. The disposal volume of kitchen waste and the online power generation increased by 27.7% and 22.8% year - on - year respectively. Capital Water Service's Hefei project's sewage treatment fee increased by 2.9% year - on - year after the price adjustment approval. Shaoxing Water Supply's water supply in Q3 was significantly higher than that in Q1 - Q2 [17]. - Shougang Biomass's revenue, EBITDA, and distributable amount increased by 12.4%, 20.0%, and 97.4% year - on - year respectively. Capital Water Service's revenue, EBITDA, and distributable amount increased by 7.7%, 10.6%, and 30.1% year - on - year respectively. Except for Jinan Heating, which had no revenue in Q3, the financial indicators of Shougang Biomass, Capital Water Service, and Shaoxing Water Supply generally reached the highest levels in the past five quarters [22]. 3.2.3 Consumer - In the shopping mall segment, except for Bailian Consumer, whose rent declined by over 30% year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter in Q3 due to the low initial rent of the newly introduced anchor tenant, the rents of other shopping malls increased year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter. In the outlet segment, the off - season characteristics were obvious in Q3, and the overall associated income declined. In the community business segment, Wumei Consumer's operation was stable. Huawei Agricultural Market leased part of its roof for the construction of a distributed photovoltaic power station and introduced new types of merchants [26]. - In Q3 2025, the revenue and EBITDA of shopping malls increased quarter - on - quarter. JINMAO Commercial's revenue increased by over 10% year - on - year. Except for Huawei Agricultural Market, whose distributable amount declined significantly quarter - on - quarter (- 15.1%), the distributable amount of other consumer REITs generally increased or remained flat year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter [27]. 3.2.4 Warehousing & Logistics - In the market - oriented leasing segment, rents declined year - on - year across the board, and only Yantian Port and GLP improved quarter - on - quarter. Shenzhen International saw a decline in both volume and price. In the affiliated - party full - lease segment, rents and occupancy rates were relatively stable, and Jiuzhitong Medicine's pallet utilization rate improved quarter - on - quarter [31]. - Overall, the warehousing & logistics sector was cold, with only a few projects showing a slight quarter - on - quarter improvement. Only JD Warehousing and Jiuzhitong Medicine, which were affiliated - party full - lease projects, had a slight quarter - on - quarter increase in revenue and EBITDA. The EBITDA and distributable amount of Baowan Logistics, Waigaoqiao, and ESR Warehousing & Logistics declined by over 10% quarter - on - quarter [37]. 3.2.5 Energy - Except for TBEA New Energy, the settlement (online) electricity volume of the energy sector declined year - on - year in Q3. Different energy types had different reasons for the decline, such as the decrease in water inflow in the hydropower sector and the poor light resources in the photovoltaic sector in some regions [39][41]. - In terms of electricity price, the average settlement electricity price of Shenzhen Energy declined year - on - year in Q3. The electricity price of hydropower had large seasonal fluctuations. The electricity price of Jingneng Photovoltaic's Yulin project increased, while that of the Jingtai project declined. TBEA New Energy's electricity price remained stable. The electricity price of onshore wind power was differentiated [45]. - In Q3 2025, only TBEA New Energy achieved year - on - year growth in revenue, EBITDA, and distributable amount. The performance of State Power Investment New Energy was under pressure due to the significant decline in power generation, and its distributable amount was negative. Shenzhen Energy's performance also declined significantly due to the decline in both volume and price of power sales [49]. 3.2.6 Industrial Park - In Q3 2025, 47% of industrial park REITs' occupancy rates dropped to the lowest levels in the past five periods or since listing, but the decline was small. Some projects' strategies of trading price for volume were effective. Most REITs' collection rates increased year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter, with an average collection rate of 91.3% in Q3 [50]. - At the fund level, the revenue and EBITDA of industrial park REITs generally declined year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter in Q3. The distributable amount of industrial park REITs declined year - on - year across the board, and 44% increased quarter - on - quarter [52][57].
中金 • REITs | REITs三季报点评:波动分化仍是主旋律
中金点睛· 2025-11-02 23:41
Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the third-quarter performance of 73 REITs, highlighting the differentiated operational resilience across various sectors and regions, with a focus on short-term operational stability [2][4]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The industrial park sector shows structural resilience in core areas, while facing challenges in second-tier cities due to intensified market competition [4][8]. - The logistics and warehousing sector continues to exhibit operational resilience among projects linked to key tenants and leading operators [4][12]. - The rental housing sector maintains operational resilience, with some market-driven projects experiencing slight rental declines but improved occupancy rates [4][12]. - The consumer sector's listed REITs show stable performance, although some projects experience seasonal fluctuations [4][12]. - Data centers report high utilization rates, indicating stable short-term operational performance [4][12]. - Highway projects see increased traffic volumes in Q3, influenced by seasonal factors and ongoing network changes [4][12]. - Municipal environmental and energy projects generally report growth, with some experiencing challenges due to resource fluctuations and grid absorption pressures [4][12]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The overall distributable amount for Q3 increased by 19.6% quarter-on-quarter, although it declined by 1.2% year-on-year [5]. - The municipal environmental sector outperformed others, followed by energy, consumer, rental housing, highways, logistics, and industrial parks [5]. - The average completion rate for disclosed projects in 2025 is 28%, aligning with market expectations [5]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights Industrial Parks - Core area projects maintain high occupancy rates, while second-tier city projects face challenges, with Hefei High-tech REIT's occupancy rate dropping to 71.6% [8][10]. - Rental levels are under pressure, with significant declines in some projects, indicating a competitive environment [8][11]. Logistics and Warehousing - Projects with high proportions of related tenants show strong stability, while market-driven projects exhibit volatility [12][13]. - Some projects, such as Shunfeng REIT, report a decline in occupancy rates due to increased competition [12][13]. Municipal Environmental and Energy - Most municipal environmental projects report growth, with specific projects benefiting from price adjustments [4][12]. - Energy projects show mixed performance, with hydroelectric projects recovering while wind and solar face challenges [4][12].