信用债周策略 20251117 地方盘活存量资产，稳固行业发展势头 2025 年 11 月 17 日 ➢ 扩内需政策及行业供需关系改善，部分行业价格出现了稳定增长趋势 2025 年 10 月份，随着扩内需等政策措施持续显效，叠加国庆、中秋长假带动， CPI 环比上涨 0.2%，同比上涨 0.2%；扣除食品和能源价格的核心 CPI 同比上涨 1.2%，涨幅连续第 6 个月扩大。受国内部分行业供需关系改善、国际大宗商品价 格传导等因素影响，PPI 环比由上月持平转为上涨 0.1%，为年内首次上涨；同比 下降 2.1%，降幅比上月收窄 0.2 个百分点，连续第 3 个月收窄。 各行业价格正在反复振荡中呈现有所回升趋势，部分行业出厂价格开始出现持续 修复迹象，例如煤炭、光伏、水泥、计算机、锂离子电池、集成电路等，这与近 期国家实施"反内卷"政策有关，也与各行业供需关系持续改善有关。同时，核 心 CPI 出现持续增长现象，目前已涨至 1.2%，且预计未来仍然存在进一步提升 的空间；此趋势若能延续至 2026 年，则 CPI 与 PPI 存在大幅度改善的可能性。 ➢ 地方政府正在积极盘活存量资产，拓展新的增量发展空间 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments regarding Country Garden, highlighting its challenges and attempts to recover from significant debt issues while being recognized as a major enterprise in the industry [3][10]. Group 1: Company Recognition and Challenges - Country Garden was praised by local leaders during the Shunde District Entrepreneur Conference, emphasizing its resilience and commitment to social responsibility despite facing financial difficulties [3]. - The company experienced a significant drop in its ranking on the Fortune Global 500 list, falling from 138th in 2022 to 460th in 2025 after a period of financial turmoil [4][6]. - Despite the recognition, Country Garden's debt situation worsened, with total liabilities reaching 885.4 billion and overdue debts exceeding 140 billion by June of this year [8]. Group 2: Debt Issues and Legal Challenges - The company has been involved in numerous legal disputes related to housing delivery, unpaid wages, property services, and financial product repayments, leading to a backlog of cases [9]. - A recent debt restructuring plan was announced, aiming to reduce 13.8 billion in domestic debt by half, which is seen as a critical step for the company's financial recovery [10]. - On the day of the conference, Country Garden faced additional legal challenges, including news of frozen shares and being listed as a defendant in two court cases [11].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance has exposed six typical cases of hidden debt, emphasizing the need for stricter management and accountability to prevent the increase of hidden debts in local governments [1][2] Group 1: Cases of Hidden Debt - Shenyang, Liaoning Province: New hidden debt of 520 million yuan incurred through state-owned enterprise financing for high-standard farmland renovation, leading to accountability for local officials [1] - Xiamen, Fujian Province: New hidden debt of 68.396 billion yuan from state-owned enterprise funding for land development and housing projects, resulting in accountability for senior city officials [1] - Lingcheng District, Dezhou, Shandong Province: New hidden debt of 14.5 million yuan from state-owned enterprise financing for farmland construction, with local officials held accountable [1] - East Lake High-tech Development Zone, Wuhan, Hubei Province: New hidden debt of 10.385 billion yuan from state-owned enterprise funding for public projects, leading to accountability for district leaders [1] - Wulong District, Chongqing: New hidden debt of 16 million yuan from borrowing by state-owned enterprises for infrastructure, with local officials facing accountability [1] - Chengdu, Sichuan Province: New hidden debt of 61.408 billion yuan from state-owned enterprise funding for urban renewal and public projects, resulting in accountability for the deputy mayor [1] Group 2: Ministry of Finance's Actions - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes the importance of preventing and resolving hidden debt risks as a political task, urging local governments to strengthen monitoring and accountability mechanisms [2] - The Ministry plans to rigorously enforce financial supervision and hold accountable any instances of new hidden debt or inadequate debt resolution efforts [2]

Group 1 - The municipal environmental protection sector is characterized by stable profitability, improved cash flow, and opportunities in environmental dividend assets due to debt reduction and water price adjustments. High dividend stocks are emerging in the municipal water and solid waste sectors, with companies like Guangdong Investment, Yongxing Co., Hongcheng Environment, and others recommended for investment [4][30][28] - The integration of AI is driving secondary growth in the municipal environmental protection sector, particularly through solid waste management and AI Data Centers (AIDC). The collaboration between waste incineration and AIDC can significantly enhance profitability and cash flow for waste management companies [4][34][37] - The report highlights the acceleration of water price adjustments across various regions, with 17 areas having raised water prices since January 2024. This trend is expected to enhance the profitability of water service companies [18][20][21] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of stable revenue and income in municipal water and solid waste operations, which are essential for urban functioning. The cost structure primarily consists of depreciation, amortization, and labor costs, ensuring long-term profitability through a franchise model [17][9] - The report outlines a significant reduction in capital expenditures (Capex) within the municipal environmental sector, leading to improved free cash flow and dividend rates. This trend is expected to continue as the industry matures [23][25] - The introduction of a 12 trillion yuan debt reduction plan is anticipated to benefit the environmental protection sector, particularly companies with high dividend yields and significant accounts receivable, such as Hongcheng Environment and Yongxing Co. [27][28]