2025 年中报点评：提质增效效果显著，业绩 基本符合市场预期 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 11,463 | 14,600 | 18,034 | 20,366 | 22,770 | | 同比（%） | 25.99 | 27.38 | 23.51 | 12.93 | 11.80 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,904 | 2,260 | 2,511 | 3,063 | 3,783 | | 同比（%） | 100.79 | 18.69 | 11.14 | 21.98 | 23.50 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.35 | 1.61 | 1.79 | 2.18 | 2.69 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 18.20 | 15.34 | 13.80 | 11.31 | 9.16 | [关键词： Table_Tag#业绩符合预期 ] 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电网设备 三星 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's consolidated revenue grew nearly 5% to $1.3 billion, and adjusted EBITDA increased to $125.4 million from $124.7 million in the prior year [9] - Earnings per common share from continuing operations rose 88% to $0.32 from $0.17 per share in the same quarter prior year [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Inpatient rehab hospital division revenue rose 17% year over year to $313.8 million, with adjusted EBITDA increasing nearly 15% to $71 million [10] - Outpatient rehabilitation division revenue increased 3.8%, driven by a corresponding 3.8% increase in patient volume [11] - Critical illness recovery hospital division revenue was $601.1 million, a decline of 1% from the same quarter last year [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The occupancy rate for inpatient rehab hospitals was lower than the prior year at 82%, while the same store occupancy rate remained stable at 86% [10] - The critical illness recovery hospital division's occupancy rate improved to 69% from 67% in the prior year [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to add 382 rehab beds by the end of 2027, with a focus on markets with strong volume and occupancy rates [6] - Upcoming openings include a 45-bed hospital in Temple, Texas, and a 30-bed critical illness recovery hospital in Memphis, Tennessee [6][7] - The company remains committed to delivering value to shareholders through stock repurchases and dividends [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the development pipeline and growing demand for inpatient rehab services [6] - The company is optimistic about the outpatient division's prospects, expecting improvements in EBITDA margins [29] - Management noted ongoing challenges with the LTACH reimbursement system but is hopeful for positive changes through dialogue with regulators [12][39] Other Important Information - The company repurchased over 5.7 million shares at an average price of $14.86, totaling $85.1 million [9] - A cash dividend of $0.0625 per share was declared, payable on August 28, 2025 [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: How did EBITDA per segment come in line versus internal expectations? - Management indicated that critical illness came in slightly lower than expectations, while inpatient rehab exceeded expectations, and they are comfortable with the reaffirmed guidance [22] Question: What is the strategy in states with favorable environments for inpatient rehab? - The company plans to engage with major systems in states like North Carolina to grow their post-acute network without immediate construction [24][26] Question: How is outpatient rehab expected to evolve throughout the year? - Management expects outpatient rehab to improve, with initiatives in scheduling expected to enhance EBITDA margins towards 10% [28][29] Question: What is the impact of the outlier threshold? - Management noted that the final rule for LTACHs included a slight improvement in the rate, but challenges remain with the reimbursement system [30][40] Question: What is the supply-demand picture in the critical illness recovery hospitals? - Management stated that demand for services remains strong, driven by demographics and medical technology, despite challenges with reimbursement [44] Question: What are the trends in labor costs across business lines? - Management reported improvements in employee rate increases, with a decrease in pressures from agency costs compared to previous years [48]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Samsung Medical with a "Buy" rating and a target price of RMB 30.00 [1][4][5]. Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic manufacturer of medium and low voltage electrical equipment, primarily producing distribution transformers and smart meters. Despite a 25% decline in stock price year-to-date, the report anticipates a recovery in smart meter demand starting in 2026 due to a new replacement cycle. Additionally, strong overseas demand for distribution transformers may mitigate cyclical risks [1][12][45]. - The report projects a 27% CAGR for EPS from 2025 to 2027, with a 16% growth rate expected in 2025. The current stock price corresponds to a 9x PE for 2026E, below the historical average of 13.4x. The company maintains a stable dividend payout ratio of 55%, with expected dividend yields of 5-6% for 2025-2026 [1][4][12]. Summary by Sections Smart Meter Concerns - The report acknowledges concerns regarding smart meter demand in 2024 due to high base effects but expects a rebound in 2026. Historical data indicates that new standards typically lead to a drop in demand in the year of implementation, followed by growth in subsequent years. The company is also positioned to benefit from increasing market share in overseas smart meter and distribution transformer markets [2][13][16]. Medical Services Profitability - Approximately 20% of the company's revenue comes from rehabilitation hospitals. The average length of hospital stays in tertiary hospitals has decreased significantly, indicating a rising demand for rehabilitation services. The company’s bed occupancy rate is below the national average, suggesting potential for improvement in profitability [3][31]. Valuation - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, arriving at a 12-month target price of RMB 30.00. The power equipment segment is valued at 11.5x forward PE, while the healthcare services segment is valued at 18x, aligning with industry averages. The target price implies a 12.4x PE for 2026E, with an expected EPS CAGR of 23% from 2024 to 2027 [4][46]. Revenue Growth Projections - The report forecasts a 26% CAGR for power equipment revenue from 2024 to 2027, driven by strong growth in distribution equipment (38% CAGR) and smart meters (8% CAGR). The overall revenue growth for the power equipment segment is expected to be supported by a 26% increase in orders [8][23][24]. Dividend and Cash Position - The company is in a net cash position, which supports its ability to pay dividends. The report anticipates a stable dividend payout ratio of at least 45% from 2025 to 2027, with an average payout ratio of 54% from 2020 to 2024 [38][41].