SOTP估值法

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好未来(TAL):主业维持高增,季度利润超预期
HTSC· 2025-08-01 01:50
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][4][12] Core Views - The company reported Q1FY26 revenue of $575 million, a year-over-year increase of 38.8%, slightly below Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 39.8% [1][5] - Non-GAAP operating profit for Q1 was $25.11 million, corresponding to an operating profit margin (OPM) of 4.4%, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate by 2.3 percentage points [1][2] - The company announced a new stock repurchase plan, expecting to buy back up to $600 million of its common stock over the next 12 months [1][4] Summary by Sections Q1 Performance - Q1 learning service revenue is estimated at approximately $405 million, with a year-over-year growth of 40% in RMB terms [2] - The tutoring and online school business revenue is expected to grow by 46% and 50% year-over-year, respectively [2] - Overall gross margin for Q1 increased by 3.2 percentage points to 54.9%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate by about 3.5 percentage points [2] Future Outlook - Q1 deferred revenue grew by approximately 50.8% year-over-year but showed a sequential decline [3] - Q2 learning service revenue growth is expected to decline to around 25% year-over-year [3] - The company anticipates total revenue growth of 22% year-over-year for Q2, with a non-GAAP OPM of 8.57% [3] Financial Projections - Revenue estimates for FY26, FY27, and FY28 have been adjusted to $2.834 billion, $3.459 billion, and $4.075 billion, respectively [4][9] - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for FY26, FY27, and FY28 are projected at $220 million, $373 million, and $544 million, respectively [4][9] - The target price based on the sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method is set at $13.89, down from a previous estimate of $14.82 [4][12]
瑞银:三星医疗_ 寻找价值;首次覆盖,给予买入评级
瑞银· 2025-07-01 00:40
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Samsung Medical with a "Buy" rating and a target price of RMB 30.00 [1][4][5]. Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic manufacturer of medium and low voltage electrical equipment, primarily producing distribution transformers and smart meters. Despite a 25% decline in stock price year-to-date, the report anticipates a recovery in smart meter demand starting in 2026 due to a new replacement cycle. Additionally, strong overseas demand for distribution transformers may mitigate cyclical risks [1][12][45]. - The report projects a 27% CAGR for EPS from 2025 to 2027, with a 16% growth rate expected in 2025. The current stock price corresponds to a 9x PE for 2026E, below the historical average of 13.4x. The company maintains a stable dividend payout ratio of 55%, with expected dividend yields of 5-6% for 2025-2026 [1][4][12]. Summary by Sections Smart Meter Concerns - The report acknowledges concerns regarding smart meter demand in 2024 due to high base effects but expects a rebound in 2026. Historical data indicates that new standards typically lead to a drop in demand in the year of implementation, followed by growth in subsequent years. The company is also positioned to benefit from increasing market share in overseas smart meter and distribution transformer markets [2][13][16]. Medical Services Profitability - Approximately 20% of the company's revenue comes from rehabilitation hospitals. The average length of hospital stays in tertiary hospitals has decreased significantly, indicating a rising demand for rehabilitation services. The company’s bed occupancy rate is below the national average, suggesting potential for improvement in profitability [3][31]. Valuation - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, arriving at a 12-month target price of RMB 30.00. The power equipment segment is valued at 11.5x forward PE, while the healthcare services segment is valued at 18x, aligning with industry averages. The target price implies a 12.4x PE for 2026E, with an expected EPS CAGR of 23% from 2024 to 2027 [4][46]. Revenue Growth Projections - The report forecasts a 26% CAGR for power equipment revenue from 2024 to 2027, driven by strong growth in distribution equipment (38% CAGR) and smart meters (8% CAGR). The overall revenue growth for the power equipment segment is expected to be supported by a 26% increase in orders [8][23][24]. Dividend and Cash Position - The company is in a net cash position, which supports its ability to pay dividends. The report anticipates a stable dividend payout ratio of at least 45% from 2025 to 2027, with an average payout ratio of 54% from 2020 to 2024 [38][41].
索尼 (6758 JP):关税影响可控,游戏业务指引超预期
HTSC· 2025-05-22 01:35
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of JPY 4,400 [8][9]. Core Insights - The company's FY3/25 revenue is projected at JPY 12,957.1 billion, a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year, while operating profit is expected to grow by 16.4% to JPY 1,407.2 billion, exceeding the company's guidance of JPY 1,335 billion [1][2]. - The gaming and semiconductor businesses are anticipated to continue driving performance, with gaming business operating profit guidance exceeding expectations despite the delay of GTA6 [2][3]. - The impact of tariffs on operating profit is estimated at around 8%, but the actual effect may be more limited due to diversified production locations and increased inventory in the U.S. [3][4]. - The financial division spin-off is expected to be completed in October, which is viewed positively as it allows the company to focus more on its creative entertainment vision [4][5]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - For FY3/26, the company expects revenues of JPY 11,700 billion and operating profit of JPY 1,380 billion, with gaming and network services projected to grow by 15.7% year-on-year [2][3]. - The forecast for FY3/26 to FY3/28 net profit is JPY 10,743 billion, JPY 12,630 billion, and JPY 13,690 billion respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 11% and 2% for FY3/26 and FY3/27 due to tariff impacts [5][16]. Segment Performance - The gaming and network services segment is expected to generate significant revenue, with a projected operating profit of JPY 4,086 billion for FY3/26, driven by strong first-party game sales [17]. - The music segment is also expected to perform well, with an operating profit margin higher than comparable companies, projected at JPY 3,698 billion for FY3/26 [17]. - The imaging and sensing solutions segment is anticipated to see improvements in profit margins due to cautious investments and market share growth in the automotive sector [17].