Employment Data - In November 2025, the U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected increase of 50,000 and recovering from a loss of 105,000 jobs in October[15] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, higher than the expected 4.4%[15] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.5% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 3.6%[15] Economic Insights - The rise in unemployment is attributed to a "technical" disruption from the government shutdown, which temporarily inflated the unemployment figures due to forced leave of federal employees[2] - Private sector employment remains resilient, with the goods-producing sector adding 19,000 jobs, the highest since May 2025[2] - Retail data for October showed stability, with core retail sales growth exceeding expectations, indicating that consumer spending, which accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. GDP, is stabilizing[2] Federal Reserve Outlook - Despite the unexpected rise in unemployment, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a cautious approach to interest rate cuts in the short term[5] - The market anticipates two rate cuts in 2026, with probabilities of 44.1% in April and 34.5% in July, while the probability of pausing rate cuts in January 2026 stands at 73.4%[24] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate increased to 62.5% in November, up from 62.4% in September, indicating a recovery in employment willingness among younger demographics[4] - The number of unemployed individuals rose by 228,000 in November, reflecting the impact of the government shutdown on temporary unemployment[4] Wage Growth and Inflation - Wage growth showed signs of slowing, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.1% in November, down from 0.4% in October[42] - Year-on-year wage growth also decreased to 3.5%, compared to 3.7% in October, suggesting reduced inflationary pressures[42]