9 月非农数据点评 迟来的指引，摇摆的降息 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 美东时间 11 月 20 日，美国劳工部（BLS）补发 9 月非农就业报告。9 月新增非农就业人数 11.9 万，远高 于预期的 5.0 万，失业率小幅上行至 4.4%。 证券研究报告 | 2025年11月24日 评论： 图1：9 月非农数据总览 | | | | | 2025年9月 非农数据总览表 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

美国劳工部一份迟来两个半月的就业报告，勾勒出初秋时节美国劳动力市场的复杂图景，也为美联储年底最后一场利率会议埋下了争论的引线。 本文来源：根据CNBC、路透社、智通财经等官方资讯综合撰写 美国劳工部周四（11月20日）发布的数据显示，美国9月非农就业人数增加11.9万，远超市场预期的5万，显示就业市场在政府停摆前仍保持韧性。 然而，这份迟来的报告同时显示失业率升至4.4%，创下2021年10月以来最高水平，而8月份数据更是被大幅下修至减少4000个岗位。 这种矛盾的组合——就业增长超预期但失业率上升，为美联储12月的利率决策带来了前所未有的复杂性。 01 延迟数据解读 这份原定10月3日发布的就业报告，因创纪录的44天政府停摆而推迟至今，打破了自9月初以来关键经济数据的真空状态。 报告显示，9月非农就业增加11.9万人，显著高于市场预期的5万人，且创下自4月以来最大增幅。 不过，前两个月的数据遭遇大幅下修：7月非农就业从7.9万下修至7.2万；8月从原先的增加2.2万被修正为减少4000，这是2024年1月以来首次出现负值。 经过这些修正后，7月和8月的就业增长总数比先前报告的低了3.3万个岗位。 02 关键 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for September was released after a one-month delay, showing better-than-expected employment data, which reduces the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates [1][3] - The report indicated an increase of 119,000 jobs in September, significantly higher than the Dow Jones estimate of 50,000 [4] - The unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.4%, the highest level since October 2021, while average hourly wages increased by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year [5] Group 2 - The labor market data release ended a 44-day period during which the U.S. government was "shut down," preventing the collection and publication of labor statistics [5] - The initial jobless claims for the week ending November 15 were reported at 220,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week, which was below market expectations [6] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meetings in December will assess overall employment conditions, with the October and November employment reports to be released simultaneously on December 9 [7] - There is a strong division among Federal Reserve officials regarding the appropriateness of a rate cut in December, with some members supporting a cut while others prefer to maintain stable rates through 2025 [8] Group 4 - Concerns about core inflation remain high, with some members indicating that tariffs are pushing up prices, counteracting declines in housing service prices [9] - Some officials believe that productivity gains from artificial intelligence may help alleviate some inflationary pressures, while others express uncertainty about the timing and extent of tariff impacts on prices [10]

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for September was released after a one-month delay, showing data that exceeded market expectations, indicating reduced urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates [1][3] - The report revealed an increase of 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, significantly higher than the Dow Jones expectation of 50,000 [4] - The unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.4%, the highest level since October 2021, while average hourly wages increased by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year [5] Group 2 - The labor market data release followed a record 44-day government shutdown, which prevented the collection and publication of labor statistics [5] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending November 15 were reported at 220,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week, below the market consensus of 227,000 [6] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meetings in December will assess overall employment conditions, with the October and November employment reports to be released simultaneously on December 9 [7] - There is a strong division among Federal Reserve officials regarding the appropriateness of a rate cut in December, with some members supporting a cut while others prefer to maintain rates stable through 2025 [8][9] - Concerns about core inflation remaining high were noted, with some members indicating that tariffs are pushing up prices, counteracting declines in housing service prices [9][10]

Core Insights - The ADP employment report for October shows an increase of 42,000 jobs, the largest gain since July 2025, surpassing the market expectation of 28,000 jobs [1][2] - The report alleviates concerns from the Federal Reserve regarding labor market deterioration and reverses a two-month decline in employment figures [2] Employment Sector Analysis - Job growth is concentrated in labor-intensive sectors such as trade, transportation, public utilities, and education and health services, while knowledge-intensive sectors like information services and professional services are experiencing job losses [2][3] - Specifically, trade, transportation, and public utilities added 47,000 jobs, education and health services added 26,000 jobs, and financial activities added 11,000 jobs [2] - Conversely, the information services sector lost 17,000 jobs, professional and business services lost 15,000 jobs, other services lost 13,000 jobs, and manufacturing lost 3,000 jobs [2][3] Manufacturing Sector Challenges - The decline in manufacturing jobs is attributed to economic slowdown and weak demand, with the manufacturing PMI remaining below the growth threshold for eight consecutive months [3] - High inventory levels in sectors like consumer electronics and automotive have led to production cuts and layoffs, compounded by increased investment in automation technologies [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - Despite the positive employment data, the Federal Reserve is expected to continue its interest rate cuts, with a 62.5% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December [5] - The focus on employment over inflation suggests that economic downturn risks are currently prioritized, although concerns about inflation due to tariffs remain [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the labor market in the United States, specifically focusing on the revisions to payroll employment growth as announced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) [2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Preliminary Revision of Jobs**: The BLS announced a preliminary revision of -911,000 jobs to payroll employment growth between April 2024 and March 2025, indicating a significant downward adjustment [2][3]. - **Impact on Job Growth**: The revision suggests that job growth averaged only 71,000 jobs per month during the period, compared to the previously reported 147,000 jobs per month [6]. - **Sector Distribution**: The downward revision was broad-based across industries, with the largest impacts seen in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, manufacturing, and trade sectors. Transportation and utilities were the only sectors not experiencing downward revisions [11]. - **Small vs. Large Businesses**: The slowdown in job growth was more pronounced in small- and medium-sized businesses, which saw near-zero payroll growth, while large businesses experienced a 1.7% year-over-year payroll growth [20]. Additional Important Insights - **Productivity Growth**: The revisions are expected to lead to upward adjustments in productivity growth estimates, with nonfarm productivity growth likely revised to 1.7% year-over-year [40]. - **Labor Market Tightness**: Other indicators suggest that the labor market has softened significantly, with the underlying pace of job growth estimated to have decelerated to about 25,000 jobs per month, below the breakeven rate of 70,000 jobs per month needed to stabilize the unemployment rate [43][49]. - **Birth-Death Model Concerns**: The BLS's birth-death model, which estimates job creation from business openings and closings, is likely overstating payroll growth by about 30,000 jobs per month [24]. - **Future Revisions**: The BLS will incorporate these revisions into the establishment survey with the January employment report released in February, which will also revise job growth estimates for the remainder of 2025 [32]. Conclusion - The significant downward revision in payroll employment growth highlights potential weaknesses in the labor market, particularly among small and medium-sized businesses. The implications for productivity growth and economic indicators such as GDP and GDI are noteworthy, suggesting a need for careful monitoring of labor market trends moving forward [36][40].

Employment Data - In August, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, significantly below the expected 75,000 and the previous value of 79,000[3] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.3%, matching expectations but up from 4.2%[3] - The Labor Department revised the non-farm employment data for June and July, resulting in a total downward adjustment of 21,000 jobs[3] Sector Performance - The goods-producing sector saw a job loss of 25,000, continuing a downward trend, while the service sector added 63,000 jobs, down from 85,000 in the previous month[4] - Notably, the manufacturing sector lost 12,000 jobs, and government employment decreased by 16,000[11] Market Implications - Following the employment data release, the market anticipates a 25 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September and October, with some speculation about a potential 50 basis points cut in September[3] - The short-term U.S. Treasury yields have declined rapidly, while long-term yields have remained relatively stable[5] Economic Outlook - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, but the unemployment rate has not increased significantly, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may not act too quickly on rate cuts[4] - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming CPI data on September 11, which will provide further insights into inflation trends[5] Risks - There are risks associated with the U.S. economy potentially declining more than expected, as well as uncertainties surrounding monetary and fiscal policies[51]

Group 1 - The market's expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September remains unchanged despite potentially strong employment data, primarily due to underlying weakness signals in the labor market and the Fed's recent dovish stance [1][5] - The forecast for August indicates an increase of 90,000 non-farm jobs, surpassing July's 73,000 and the market's expectation of 75,000, supported by stable initial jobless claims and a decline in continuing claims [3] - The focus will be on the revision of July's data, as previous months' non-farm data have been adjusted downwards, raising the possibility of a significant downward revision for July, which could indicate a more persistent weakness in the labor market [3] Group 2 - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference has set the tone for a potential policy shift, with a strong data requirement to prevent a rate cut in September, despite the official forecast suggesting rates will remain unchanged [5] - The unemployment rate will be a critical variable in assessing the rate cut threshold; a drop to 4.1% would lower the job growth requirement, while a rise to 4.3% would necessitate stronger job data to alleviate rate cut expectations [5] - The August employment market is expected to show mixed results, with public sector jobs anticipated to slightly recover after a loss of 10,000 in July, and improvements expected in the tourism and hospitality sectors [5][7] Group 3 - Certain sectors are still showing signs of weakness, particularly in professional and business services, which may continue to experience hiring challenges due to the accelerated application of AI technology and reduced labor market fluidity [7] - Manufacturing employment is expected to remain sluggish due to labor supply shocks and tariff uncertainties [7] - Wage growth is projected to remain stable, with an expected month-over-month increase of 0.3% in average hourly earnings and average weekly hours stable at 34.3 hours, indicating no overheating in the labor market [7]

Group 1: Core Strategy of the UK Modern Industrial Strategy - The UK Modern Industrial Strategy is a ten-year plan aimed at overcoming growth barriers and making the UK a preferred destination for global investment and development [1] - The strategy focuses on making investment quicker and easier, supporting eight high-potential industries, and enhancing economic security and resilience [1][3] - By 2035, the goal is for the UK to become the most trusted advisor in global industries and maintain its position as the second-largest exporter of professional and business services [1][3] Group 2: Innovation and Technology Adoption - Innovation, particularly through artificial intelligence and digital advancements, is central to the strategy, with the professional and business services sector projected to contribute £300 billion to the UK economy by 2024 [3] - The government has committed over £150 million to support technology adoption and innovation in the professional and business services sector [5][6] - New initiatives include the establishment of AI skills centers and the launch of transformative projects to address innovation barriers [6][10] Group 3: Support for SMEs and Export Financing - The strategy includes a "smart manufacturing" digital adoption project aimed at expanding innovation in professional and business services across five high-potential cities [6] - The UK Export Finance early project service guarantees will support professional and business services firms in securing international contracts [11] - The establishment of a trade digitization working group aims to accelerate the digitalization of trade documents and processes [9] Group 4: Global Market Opportunities - The UK possesses world-leading capabilities in legal, accounting, tax, and consulting services, providing a strong foundation for Chinese enterprises seeking international expansion [12] - The UK is highlighted as a key player in infrastructure and real estate investment, particularly in logistics, R&D, and technology parks [14] - The UK will showcase its professional and business service capabilities at the CIFIT, emphasizing collaboration with Chinese enterprises [15]

Employment Data - In July, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000, significantly below the expected 106,000 and the previous value of 14,000[3] - The unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.2%, with the previous value at 4.1% and the forecast at 4.3%[3] - The Labor Department revised the non-farm employment data for May and June, with May's initial value of 139,000 adjusted down to 19,000 and June's from 147,000 to 14,000, totaling a downward revision of 253,000[3] Labor Market Trends - The average monthly job growth over the past three months is now only 35,000, a sharp decline from the first quarter's average of 111,000, indicating a potential overestimation of previous employment strength[3] - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.2%, contributing to the stability of the unemployment rate despite job losses[10] - The number of foreign-born workers decreased by 1.241 million from January to July, while the domestic-born workforce increased by 3.073 million, affecting overall labor supply[12] Market Reactions and Federal Reserve Implications - Following the employment data release, U.S. stock markets fell, bond yields declined, and the dollar weakened, reflecting heightened market risk aversion[5] - The disappointing employment figures have led to increased market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and October[5] - Key factors for the Fed's decision will include inflation data for July and August and the potential impact of political pressures from the Trump administration[15]