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国泰海通|策略:7月金股策略:金融行情未结束,成长题材轮动
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-07-02 14:16
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the stock index has broken through key levels and still has some upward potential in the short term, but the focus should shift from short-term index movements to structural performance and growth themes [1][2][3] - The article highlights that the decline in the risk-free interest rate in China is a significant driver for the stock market's upward movement, as it reduces the opportunity cost for investors and encourages capital inflow into equities [3] - It notes that the economic outlook is undergoing a positive transformation, driven by supply-side innovations and macro policies that support consumption and long-term growth, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [2][3] Group 2 - The report indicates that the Chinese stock market's valuation logic for 2025 will be driven by domestic industrial innovation and a systematic reduction in the discount rate, which will facilitate new capital entering the market [1][2] - The article mentions that the expectation of the Chinese yuan stabilizing or slightly appreciating is a crucial factor for the revaluation of Chinese assets, further supporting the market's positive outlook [1] - It discusses the historical context of the stock market's performance, noting that significant market rallies have typically coincided with declines in risk-free interest rates, which have occurred twice in the past decade and are expected to happen again [3]