Carter's (NYSE:CRI) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 27, 2026 08:30 AM ET Company ParticipantsDouglas C. Palladini - Director, President and CEOJay Sole - Managing DirectorJonathan Keypour - VP of Equity ResearchPaul Lejuez - Managing Director and Head of Consumer Discretionary ResearchRichard F. Westenberger - CFO and COOSean McHugh - VP and TreasurerConference Call ParticipantsChristopher Nardone - VP and Equity Research AnalystIke Boruchow - Managing Director and Senior Equity Consumer AnalystJim Chartier ...

近年来，无论是在二三线城市，还是在小县城、乡镇，量贩零食门店已成为除奶茶店之外在商圈最常见 的零售业态之一，这种模式也让不少传统的零食销售模式压力倍增。 传统零售往往遵循"货架思维"——门店是商品的容器，核心是"有什么卖什么"。作为行业代表，鸣鸣很 忙的第一步胜利，便是彻底跳出了这一窠臼，转向了"用户需要什么，我们提供什么"的用户中心主义。 1月28日，鸣鸣很忙登陆港交所。该股发行价区间为229.60至236.60港元，每手买卖单位100股。 在中国零售业的版图上，一个零食品牌用不到九年的时间，完成了从一家街边小店到拥有超两万家门 店、覆盖全国28个省份的商业传奇。鸣鸣很忙集团以其惊人的扩张速度与稳固的市场地位，不仅重塑了 中国量贩零食的行业格局，更是成为该细分领域的港股"第一股"。 "便宜有好货" 鸣鸣很忙的成功还有一个重要前提，是国内统一大市场建设带来的基础设施完善和流通效率提升。今天 的仓储、物流和数字化能力，已经能支撑全国范围内的统一管理，没有这些条件，就不可能发展到2万 多家门店，并把它管好、管稳。 两万家店背后的"数字心脏" 即使已经稳坐中国量贩零食市场第一位的交椅，鸣鸣很忙也没有停下来。 数据显 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rapid growth and innovative retail model of the snack brand "Ming Ming Hen Mang," which has transformed from a small street shop to a leading player in China's snack retail market with over 20,000 stores across 28 provinces in less than nine years, becoming the first stock of its kind listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1][12]. Group 1: Market Position and Strategy - The snack retail model has gained popularity in second and third-tier cities, becoming a common retail format alongside tea shops, putting pressure on traditional retail models [3]. - Ming Ming Hen Mang has shifted from a traditional "shelf thinking" approach to a user-centered model, focusing on what consumers need rather than merely what is available [3][4]. - Approximately 59% of Ming Ming Hen Mang's stores are located in county towns and rural areas, strategically tapping into a vast and underserved market [4]. Group 2: Cost Efficiency and Consumer Experience - The brand achieves competitive pricing not by sacrificing quality but through enhanced efficiency in its value chain, including direct connections with manufacturers and large-scale centralized purchasing [5]. - Ming Ming Hen Mang's products are, on average, about 25% cheaper than similar products in offline supermarkets, providing significant savings to consumers [5]. - The company creates an engaging shopping environment that enhances the emotional value of snack consumption, transforming the shopping experience into a joyful activity [5]. Group 3: Digital Infrastructure and Innovation - The success of Ming Ming Hen Mang is supported by improved infrastructure and logistics efficiency in China's unified market, enabling the management of over 20,000 stores [6]. - The company utilizes a digital system for inventory management and store operations, which enhances control and efficiency as it scales [8]. - Continuous product innovation is a key focus, with hundreds of new products launched monthly, keeping the consumer experience fresh and exciting [8]. Group 4: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The rise of domestic brands in the snack sector is supported by changing consumer preferences, particularly among younger generations who prioritize taste and experience over brand names [12]. - The snack retail market is expected to see significant growth, particularly in lower-tier markets, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 6.8% from 2024 to 2029 [12]. - Ming Ming Hen Mang aims to expand its presence across all areas in China, aligning its growth narrative with national industrial upgrades and the transition from "Made in China" to "Brand from China" [14].

Core Insights - The implementation of visa facilitation policies in 2025 has significantly boosted China's inbound tourism market, with a 27.2% year-on-year increase in foreign visitors, totaling 40.6 million [1] - The growth in visa-free transit has seen a 60.8% increase in passenger flow, with major cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou benefiting from over 55% of inbound travelers enjoying visa-free access [1] - The influx of foreign visitors has led to a substantial increase in consumer spending, with a 300% rise in related project bookings and over 20.89 million foreign visitors recorded in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a growth of over 50% [1] Group 1: Structural Changes in the Tourism Industry - Three structural "watersheds" have emerged in the tourism market, indicating a shift towards a service-oriented economy, moving from a "tourism powerhouse" to a "service powerhouse" [2] - The engine for inbound tourism has shifted from primarily relying on nearby Asian markets to a rapid increase in visitors from Europe and America, creating a new dynamic of "Asian base + European and American new engine" [7] - The role of platforms has evolved from merely selling products to acting as industry coordinators, connecting various stakeholders in the tourism ecosystem [7] Group 2: Experience and Standards - The concept of "dual-directional travel" reflects a change in travel motivations, where travelers seek immersive experiences rather than just sightseeing, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [3] - The demand for high-quality experiences has led to the establishment of stringent quality standards, such as "Trip Select," which has improved user satisfaction by 15 percentage points [5] - The industry is now required to provide immersive experiences rather than just basic services like flight and hotel bookings [4] Group 3: Addressing Industry Bottlenecks - The rapid growth in tourist numbers has outpaced the industry's ability to upgrade, particularly affecting smaller hotels and local businesses that lack the capacity to serve international visitors [8] - Solutions include providing AI-powered tools for real-time translation and enhancing the capabilities of local businesses to cater to foreign tourists [8] - Initiatives like one-stop service counters at major airports aim to streamline the arrival experience for international visitors, addressing payment and communication challenges [9] Group 4: Cultural and Product Innovation - Transforming intangible cultural heritage and local culture into marketable experiences requires innovative product development, as demonstrated by immersive dining experiences that combine food, performance, and cultural elements [10] - Innovative marketing strategies, including social media engagement and incentive mechanisms, are crucial for promoting cultural products and attracting global audiences [10] - A tourism innovation fund has been established to support successful cultural transformation projects, highlighting the importance of creativity in the tourism sector [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant impact of visa facilitation policies on China's inbound tourism market, leading to a robust increase in foreign visitors and consumer spending, marking a transition from a "one-way flow" to a "two-way interaction" in the tourism industry [1][2]. Group 1: Inbound Tourism Growth - In 2025, the number of inbound foreign visitors reached 40.6 million, a year-on-year increase of 27.2%, with 240-hour visa-free transit visitors growing by 60.8% [1]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, visa-free inbound foreign visitors totaled 20.89 million, up over 50%, significantly boosting related project bookings by 300% [1]. - The optimization of the departure tax refund policy and the nationwide promotion of "buy and refund immediately" services have created a stimulating "golden combination" for consumer spending [1]. Group 2: Structural Changes in the Industry - Three structural "watersheds" have emerged in the tourism market: a shift in inbound tourism sources, a change in the role of platforms, and the integration of AI in demand creation [2][6]. - The engine of inbound tourism has shifted from primarily Asian markets to a rapid increase in visitors from Europe and America, indicating a broader global appeal of Chinese tourism [7]. - Platforms are evolving from mere sales channels to industry coordinators, utilizing technology to enhance operational efficiency and connect various stakeholders [8]. Group 3: Enhancing Visitor Experience - The focus has shifted from merely selling tickets and hotels to providing immersive experiences, reflecting a change in travelers' motivations [4]. - The introduction of AI in travel planning is transforming how itineraries are created, allowing for personalized and innovative travel experiences [8]. - The industry is addressing the "last mile" challenges by providing tools and support to local businesses, enabling them to better serve international tourists [9]. Group 4: Cultural and Product Innovation - The transformation of intangible cultural heritage into experiential products is crucial for attracting tourists and generating revenue [12]. - Innovative product offerings, such as immersive dining experiences that combine food, performance, and cultural elements, have proven effective in engaging global audiences [12]. - A tourism innovation fund has been established to reward successful cultural transformation cases, promoting the development of marketable cultural experiences [12]. Group 5: Global Service Integration - The trend of "Chinese tourism services going global" reflects the natural process of capability overflow, enhancing the global tourism experience for Chinese travelers [13]. - Chinese platforms are becoming co-builders of new global standards, promoting payment interoperability and service quality systems, which contribute to the overall upgrade of the tourism industry [13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the stock index has broken through key levels and still has some upward potential in the short term, but the focus should shift from short-term index movements to structural performance and growth themes [1][2][3] - The article highlights that the decline in the risk-free interest rate in China is a significant driver for the stock market's upward movement, as it reduces the opportunity cost for investors and encourages capital inflow into equities [3] - It notes that the economic outlook is undergoing a positive transformation, driven by supply-side innovations and macro policies that support consumption and long-term growth, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [2][3] Group 2 - The report indicates that the Chinese stock market's valuation logic for 2025 will be driven by domestic industrial innovation and a systematic reduction in the discount rate, which will facilitate new capital entering the market [1][2] - The article mentions that the expectation of the Chinese yuan stabilizing or slightly appreciating is a crucial factor for the revaluation of Chinese assets, further supporting the market's positive outlook [1] - It discusses the historical context of the stock market's performance, noting that significant market rallies have typically coincided with declines in risk-free interest rates, which have occurred twice in the past decade and are expected to happen again [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - First quarter net sales increased by 1% year over year to $778 million, with wholesale net sales up 2% and direct-to-consumer sales flat [21][22] - Gross margin expanded by 30 basis points to 50.9%, while SG&A expenses increased by 1% [21][22] - Diluted earnings per share rose by 6% year over year to $0.75 [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Columbia brand net sales increased by 3%, while Mountain Hardwear net sales decreased by 14% and SOREL net sales decreased by 8% [30][35][37] - Direct-to-consumer net sales in the US declined by low single digits, with e-commerce sales down by high single digits [22][23] - International markets showed strong performance, with LAAP net sales up 14% and EMEA net sales up 7% [24][28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - US net sales decreased by 1%, with the wholesale business relatively flat [22] - China net sales increased by low teens percent, driven by strong e-commerce growth [24] - Japan net sales increased by mid-teens percent, benefiting from strong demand for late season and winter products [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on mitigating the impacts of US tariff increases and has a diversified supply chain to navigate uncertainties [9][14] - Columbia plans to increase investment in demand creation and launch a new global marketing platform starting in August [15][17] - The company aims to preserve capital and mitigate tariff impacts while seeking opportunities to gain market share from competitors [14][54] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed uncertainty regarding consumer behavior in the second half of the year due to tariff impacts and economic conditions [20][108] - The company has withdrawn its full-year 2025 outlook due to heightened uncertainty but anticipates net sales growth of 1% to 5% for the second quarter [18][108] - Management remains optimistic about international markets, particularly in China and Japan, where growth opportunities are strong [24][26] Other Important Information - The company has identified cost savings and profit-enhancing opportunities beyond the $150 million target established in 2024 [19] - Columbia's marketing spend as a percentage of sales for the first quarter was 6.4%, indicating a commitment to increasing marketing investments [58] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the outlook for wholesale in the second half? - Management indicated that the wholesale order book has not changed meaningfully and expects similar growth to earlier projections [41][45] Question: Are there opportunities to take market share due to private label offerings from China? - Management believes there are opportunities to gain market share from smaller brands and private label businesses affected by tariff challenges [43][54] Question: How will the company manage the $40 million to $45 million in incremental costs due to tariffs? - Management stated that these costs are direct and will be absorbed primarily in the second half of the year, with potential for some costs to carry into 2026 [48][92] Question: What are the expectations for demand creation and marketing spend? - Management plans to increase marketing investments and improve efficiency in spending, with a focus on new campaigns starting in August [56][58] Question: What is the current state of the business in China? - Management noted strong growth in China and plans to continue investing in localized design and production to capitalize on market opportunities [66][68]