旧消费

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新消费VS旧消费,消费投资风向“变天”的背后
雪球· 2025-06-24 07:29
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant divergence in performance between new and old consumption sectors in 2024, highlighting the strong growth of new consumption brands like Pop Mart and Lao Pu Gold compared to the stagnation of traditional sectors like liquor and condiments [4][5]. Group 1: Changes in Consumption Investment Logic - The investment logic in consumer stocks is shifting from "alcohol content" to "new content," driven by evolving consumer needs and preferences [5]. - As material needs are met, consumers are increasingly seeking products that fulfill psychological and social desires, leading to the rise of new consumption brands that cater to younger demographics [6]. - Economic conditions influence consumer spending power, with current trends favoring value-driven purchases as consumers prioritize cost-effectiveness amid economic uncertainty [9][10]. Group 2: New Consumption Investment Opportunities - New consumption companies have shown remarkable stock performance, with Pop Mart and Lao Pu Gold significantly contributing to the growth of various funds [12]. - As of Q1 2025, 207 funds held Pop Mart shares worth approximately 9.928 billion yuan, with notable funds achieving net value growth rates of 61.6% and 58.74% [12][13]. - The emergence of new consumption has been characterized by a mix of market replacement and cultural expansion, indicating higher growth potential compared to traditional sectors [11]. Group 3: Reasons for Missed Investment Opportunities - Different responses and strategies among fund managers have led to varied outcomes in capitalizing on new consumption trends, influenced by their understanding and investment frameworks [15]. - Older fund managers may struggle to grasp the appeal of new consumption products, while younger managers are more attuned to these trends, impacting their investment decisions [16]. - Regulatory constraints and the structured investment process in public funds can limit the ability to invest in emerging new consumption stocks, which may not fit established investment criteria [17]. Group 4: New Consumption vs. Old Consumption - The valuation of new consumption stocks has surged, with high price-to-earnings ratios indicating potential risks if growth expectations are not met [20]. - In contrast, traditional consumption stocks like Kweichow Moutai and Haitian Flavoring have seen valuation compression, presenting a more stable investment opportunity [21]. - The article suggests that while new consumption is currently favored, traditional sectors are adapting and may present future opportunities as they innovate and enhance shareholder returns [24]. Group 5: Conclusion - Investors are advised to choose between new and old consumption based on their risk tolerance, with a focus on long-term value and growth potential [25].