以下文章来源于投中网 ，作者纪佳文 投中网 . 投中网是领先的创新经济信息服务平台，拥有立体化传播矩阵，为创新经济人群提供深入、独到的智识 和洞见，在私募股权投资行业和创新商业领域拥有权威影响力。官网：www.chinaventure.com.cn 本文来自微信公众号： 投中网 （ID：China-Venture） ，作者：纪佳文，编辑：刘燕秋，题图来 自：AI生成 王宁刚拿到麦刚那200万元天使投资时，曾经激动地对麦刚说，"如果我是周杰伦，你就是吴宗宪"。 麦刚是不是吴宗宪我不知道，但那时王宁可能还是对周杰伦有些误解，因为他不会想到周杰伦在抖音 只是简单地开个账号，能让周母亲叶惠美是实控人的港股巨星时代，一天翻倍收盘超过百亿市值，能 让A股的"周杰伦"概念股集体躁动。 王宁的泡泡玛特、蜜雪和老铺集团，也在各个资本市场拥有自己的拥趸和概念股。"港股三姐妹"崛起 的故事，想必大家都耳濡目染一阵子了。 但我还一直特好奇一个事，新崛起的"港股三姐妹"为什么不是"三兄弟"？如果说是源自美股的"七姐 妹"，那她们一开始为什么不叫"七兄弟"？语言是思维的外放，甚至一想到如果有人把这三家崛起的 新消费公司称作"三兄弟"，我 ...

张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 从苏超、Labubu 等爆品看提振消费 ——关于提振消费问题的再思考 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观专题 宏观专题 证券分析师 2025 年 07 月 02 日 当前市场对消费领域较为关注：1）经济短期面临经贸斗争扰动，中长期面临低通 胀挑战，临近 7 月政治局会如何进一步提振消费值得关注。2）今年消费数据表现 强势离不开以旧换新及财政政策的支持，政策力度若边际下降是否会再次出现消 费不足的特征？3）今年以来新消费百花齐放，苏超、Labubu、哪吒 2 等均有现象 级表现，与传统消费有一定分化，如何理解这一现象的宏观逻辑，对后续提振消费 有何启示？ 我国已经进入品质消费时代，当前市场对消费领域较为关注。我们在 2 月外发《关 于提振消费问题的一些再思考》报告中通过对居民消费行为的划分，详细介绍了中 国消费市场的变化，在经历了三轮模仿型排浪式消费浪潮、2010 年后的消费升级 时代后，如今我国逐 ...

以下文章来源于二鸟说 ，作者二鸟说 二鸟说 . 专注于基金投资，秉承长期投资，价值投资，稳健投资的原则，合理进行大类资产配置，科学的择基，适当择时，实现资产长期稳健增值。 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：二鸟说 来源：雪球 2024年以来，大消费板块内部的"温差"非常大，潮玩、即食茶饮、国潮金饰等为代表的新消费表现强势，白酒、调味品、休闲食品等为代表的旧消 费表现比较平淡。 新消费被赋予"悦己、社交、治愈、陪伴"等标签，相关企业通过抓住新消费人群、进入新渠道、开拓新市场等手段，获得比旧消费企业更快的业绩 增速，展现出高成长、高弹性的特征。截至6月20日，新消费领域的代表泡泡玛特自2024年1月1日以来涨幅达到1098.66%，老铺黄金自2024年6月 28日上市以来涨幅达到1084.46%，均完成十倍之旅。（来源：Choice，截至2025.6.20） 一、消费投资逻辑变迁的背后 从趋势来看，当前消费股的投资逻辑正从"含酒量"转向"含新量"，引发这种变迁的原因有很多。 1、支付意愿：不同时代有不同的需求 马斯洛需求层次理论将人类需求划分为五个层次，从 ...

Industry Overview - China's cross-border e-commerce export scale has surpassed 2 trillion yuan, reaching 2.15 trillion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, accounting for 8.5% of total goods trade exports [1] - The total cross-border e-commerce import and export scale is approximately 2.71 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 14%, which is 9 percentage points higher than the overall goods trade growth rate [1] - The micro-short drama market in China has reached a scale of 50.5 billion yuan in 2024, surpassing annual box office revenue for films for the first time [3] - Over 30,000 pet merchants participated in Tmall's 618 overseas promotion, with more than 1,000 merchants seeing their cross-border transaction volume double year-on-year [4] Company Developments - The Export-Import Bank of China has introduced a special work plan to enhance financial support for foreign trade, focusing on helping enterprises "go global" and improving financial services for small and micro foreign trade companies [2] - Alibaba International Station reported a 42% year-on-year increase in platform orders since June, with GMV maintaining nearly 30% strong growth [10] - JD Logistics launched a new self-operated B2C express brand "JoyExpress" in Saudi Arabia, offering fast delivery services and local customer support [12] - SHEIN has implemented over 650 energy-saving measures, helping suppliers reduce carbon emissions by over 75,000 tons [13] - Meitu Xiuxiu has achieved significant success in the European market, topping the App Store category charts in Italy, Russia, and Turkey [14] - Anker Innovations has initiated a recall of certain batches of power bank products due to safety risks, following quality checks that revealed issues with a supplier's battery cells [17] - Laopuyuan has opened its first overseas store in Singapore, marking a key step in its global expansion strategy [18]

Group 1: Tesla and New Energy Vehicles - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other government bodies, has launched a campaign for new energy vehicles to enter rural markets, with 124 models including Tesla's Model 3 and Model Y being selected [1] - Tesla's entry into the rural market is driven by increasing demand for quality, performance, and environmental attributes among rural consumers, supported by improved infrastructure and stable electricity coverage [1] - Tesla's pricing strategy aligns well with the needs of rural consumers, providing an attractive purchasing option and enhancing its competitive edge in this market [2] Group 2: Luxury Car Market Dynamics - The automotive industry is experiencing a price war, with traditional luxury brands like Mercedes-Benz and BMW facing declining sales, prompting them to seek partnerships with local Chinese companies [4][5] - In 2024, the combined global investment of luxury brands (BBA) is projected to exceed €35 billion (approximately ¥270 billion), indicating their commitment to maintaining competitiveness in the Chinese market [4] - The ongoing price reductions by luxury brands create challenges for new entrants in the automotive market, suggesting that the competition is far from over [5] Group 3: Consumer Trends and Product Categories - During the 618 shopping festival, sunscreen clothing emerged as a hot-selling category, with various subcategories being highlighted on e-commerce platforms [7] - The UPF (Ultraviolet Protection Factor) is a critical factor for consumers when purchasing sunscreen clothing, but the increasing number of small and unregulated manufacturers has led to inconsistent UPF labeling [7][8] - The high-end ice cream market in China is becoming increasingly competitive, with Häagen-Dazs facing challenges from brands like DQ, which offers lower prices and a larger number of stores [10] Group 4: Digital Transformation in E-commerce - Digital influencers have transitioned from being supplementary to primary figures in live-streaming sales, with a penetration rate exceeding 60% in the market [13] - JD.com's digital influencers have shown a significant impact on sales, with an average conversion rate increase of 30% during the 618 shopping festival [14] - The ability of digital influencers to operate continuously without downtime provides a competitive advantage in the e-commerce landscape [14] Group 5: Consumer Behavior and Market Impact - The national subsidy program has stimulated consumer spending in various categories, but its recent tapering has led to a split in consumer behavior, with some rushing to purchase before the subsidy ends [16][17] - The subsidy program has primarily benefited larger brands and distributors, exacerbating the market divide and impacting smaller players negatively [17] - The emotional consumption trend among younger consumers is driving significant market growth, with the emotional consumption market projected to reach ¥1.2 trillion this year [19]

当部分传统品牌增长乏力之际，一批"新锐"消费品牌却逆势创出新高，业绩持续超预期。 2025年，新消费企业在资本市场异军突起。其中，泡泡玛特、蜜雪集团、老铺黄金三家公司市值均已突破千亿港元，被业内冠以"新消费三朵金花"之称， 股价年涨幅均超100%，分别引领了IP潮玩、平价茶饮、古法黄金三大消费热潮。 差异化、提供情绪价值、性价比高成为这批新消费赛道黑马异军突起的密码。但是，要想从现象级爆款成为"百年老店"，还需跨越多重门槛。 现象： 蜜雪冰城的走红更是堪称意外。数据显示，截至2024年底，其全球门店数量已超4万家，日售饮品近2500万杯，全年终端零售额高达583亿元。 当市场还在热议"消费降级"、探讨年轻人把钱花向何处时，一批具备新消费特质的国产品牌已然突围，成为消费者追捧的"新宠"。 新消费品牌引发消费者抢购 "根本抢不到！"作为泡泡玛特的忠实粉丝，刘雨婷每天紧盯社群里的 LABUBU搪胶毛绒玩偶放货通知。一旦收到不定期的"上新"提醒，她便会立刻放下 手头所有事，疯狂刷新购物页面，只为等待"购买"按钮亮起的那一刻。然而即便如此，成功抢到 LABUBU 依然难如登天。在局外人看来，这样的抢购近 乎"疯狂"，但 ...

5月21日，"全球品牌中国线上500强榜单"（CBI500）发布，这是首个基于消费者实际购买行为的 品牌榜单。同时发布的还有"中国线上消费品牌指数"（CBI）和"线上品牌购买力指数"（BPI）。 从行业看，3C与家电行业消费品质最高，消费品牌指数均高于75分，显示出行业头部品牌占据较大 市场份额。2023年以来，宠物用品、家装家具、服饰（女装）行业的消费品牌指数增幅均超过5 分，显示出消费者对该品类的品牌意识逐渐增强，消费向高评分品牌集中。 中国线上消费品牌指数CBI的基期对比（以2023年一季度为基期，基期指数=100） 从季度环比看，中国线上消费品牌指数具有线上市场的季度波动特点。在有"6·18"的二季度、 有"双11"的四季度，电商促销活动有力拉动品牌消费，指数均出现显著上升。 中国线上消费品牌指数CBI季度环比（2023年和2024年） "中国线上消费品牌指数"（CBI）是以真实消费大数据为基础、聚焦高质量发展的线上消费指数，不 仅在全国层面提供各季度的总指数，还为各地级市、各行业提供细分指数。 过去两年我国消费品质显著回暖 据了解，该指数和榜单由北京大学国家发展研究院、北京大学数字金融研究中心、中山 ...

Core Insights - Richemont Group reported a 4% year-on-year increase in sales for the fiscal year 2025, reaching €21.399 billion, with all regions except Asia Pacific showing double-digit growth [4][9] - The jewelry segment, including brands like Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels, generated €15.33 billion in revenue, growing 8% at constant exchange rates, while the watch segment saw a significant decline of 13% to €3.28 billion [4][6] - The emergence of Chinese jewelry brand Laopuhuang poses a competitive threat to established luxury brands, benefiting from cultural confidence and a unique market positioning [10][14] Financial Performance - Richemont's operating profit for the fiscal year was €3.76 billion, a slight decline of 1%, with an operating margin of 20.9%, down 240 basis points from the previous year [4] - The fourth quarter sales increased by 8% year-on-year to €5.17 billion, exceeding market expectations [4] - The jewelry division's operating profit grew by 4% to €4.9 billion, while the watch division's operating profit plummeted by 69% to €175 million [6] Regional Analysis - The Asia Pacific market experienced a 13% decline in revenue, primarily due to a 23% drop in sales from mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau [8][9] - The Americas and Japan markets showed strong growth, with revenues increasing by 15% and 30% respectively, while Europe and the Middle East remained stable [9] - The contribution of the Asia Pacific market to total sales decreased from 40% to 33%, although it remains the largest regional market for Richemont [8] Brand Performance - Cartier accounted for over half of Richemont's sales and more than 70% of its profits, with its performance in China being a significant concern for the group [4][6] - Laopuhuang achieved remarkable growth, with a 166% increase in revenue to ¥9.8 billion and a 254% rise in net profit to ¥1.48 billion, positioning itself as a strong competitor in the luxury jewelry market [13][14] - The average sales per store for Laopuhuang reached ¥328 million, surpassing established international brands [13] Market Trends - The luxury jewelry market is characterized by a low level of branding, with new players emerging and capturing market share [14] - Laopuhuang's success is closely tied to Chinese cultural confidence, filling a market gap for high-end yet affordable jewelry [10][14] - Richemont's management is considering various strategies to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariff policies while maintaining a unified global pricing strategy [14]

「 趟过坑、走过弯路，庆祝过，也怅然过。 」 这当然有着他对他作为一个消费投资人的自我保护，但不可谓不是一种定力。 Part 01 文 ｜ 刘旌 如今再谈新消费，似乎太不与时俱进。 上一轮热火朝天的讨论，已经是三四年前，而后便是漫长的沉寂。这一段的盛极而衰里，黑蚁资本是最 有代表性的基金——或许没有之一。 2020年底，伴随着上市即千亿市值的泡泡玛特，黑蚁来了一次惊艳亮相。紧接着，这家机构又募到了一 支人民币新基金和一支美金新基金，合计约40亿。这也是当年消费行业最大的一笔募资。 然而，消费行业快速陷入低迷，消费投资更是逐渐被遗忘。直到2024年6月，老铺黄金登陆港交所，股价 涨了20多倍，市值一度逼近1500亿港币。在老铺上市的半年前，也是这家公司成立15年来唯一的一次融 资中，黑蚁是领投方。 对黑蚁来说，两场IPO之间的四年，是五味杂陈的。 他们趟过坑、走过弯路，庆祝过，也怅然过。"但从来没有想过离开，"黑蚁资本管理合伙人何愚说，所 幸最终回到了正确的道路上来。 最近，「暗涌Waves」访谈了何愚。我们的话题始于老铺，但也花了相当长的时间去回溯这家基金沉寂的 四年，以及更久远的陈年往事。这其中，你能少有地 ...