Core Insights - The report highlights the transformation of the Chinese consumer market, emphasizing that new consumption is centered around fulfilling consumer task needs rather than brand narratives [1][5] - The consumer demographic is experiencing "dual growth," with Generation Z focusing on individuality and social recognition, while lower-tier markets emphasize value-for-money [1][6] - The report indicates a significant upgrade in consumption structure, with a deepening integration of online and offline channels, and the rise of instant retail and social e-commerce [1][6][34] Group 1: Traditional Consumption Logic Decline - Traditional commercial strategies have focused heavily on first and second-tier cities, leading to a structural imbalance in resource allocation, neglecting the potential of lower-tier markets [17] - The consumer market in lower-tier areas has reached a scale of 20 trillion yuan, accounting for 59% of total consumption, with a growth rate of 17.6%, significantly outpacing first and second-tier cities [17] - Traditional brands have failed to meet the core demand for fair consumption in lower-tier markets, creating opportunities for new consumption brands to connect directly with consumers [17][18] Group 2: New Consumption Brand Emergence - New consumption brands are evolving from product providers to solution providers for consumer life tasks, focusing on specific scenarios to meet unmet needs [24] - Brands like Pinduoduo and Luckin Coffee have successfully tapped into lower-tier markets and social recognition tasks, respectively, demonstrating the shift towards user-driven consumption [24][25] - The report outlines a matrix of new consumption brands that effectively address consumer tasks, showcasing their performance metrics and target demographics [24] Group 3: Economic and Technological Drivers - The Chinese economy is transitioning, with consumption becoming a key growth engine, supported by government policies aimed at upgrading consumption infrastructure [34] - The rise of digital technology has expanded consumption scenarios from offline to online, with significant growth in e-commerce and instant retail, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [37] - The report notes that the application of big data and AI in the consumer sector has enhanced personalization and efficiency, leading to increased sales and market penetration [37] Group 4: Cultural and Social Changes - The younger generations (90s and 00s) are driving a shift in consumption values from materialism to self-expression and emotional value, favoring experiences and cultural resonance [40] - The rise of domestic brands reflects a growing cultural confidence among consumers, with significant increases in the sales of "new Chinese-style" products and traditional elements [40] - The report emphasizes that consumer choices are increasingly influenced by personal identity and social connections, marking a departure from traditional consumption patterns [40]

报告导读： 潮玩谷子赛道快速发展，一级市场相关项目投融资高峰期已过，当前仍保持相 对稳定的项目数量，二级市场龙头加大力度布局相关业务。 投资建议： 潮玩谷子赛道仍在快速发展，尽管自高峰期以来一级市场投融资项目数量有回落，但近年来仍保持相对稳定，且二级市场玩家加大力度布局相关 业务，包括部分文具文创企业、IP方等。我们认为随着相关产业的快速扩容和竞争加剧，有优质IP矩阵、供应链把控能力强、具备出色运营及渠道建设力的龙 头企业更能脱颖而出。 潮玩谷子投资在21世纪10年代中期达到顶峰，如今保持相对稳定。 根据IT桔子信息，2015-2018年随泡泡玛特盲盒产品的推出与文娱行业的高速发展，每 年潮玩谷子一级市场投资事件数超过40起；2022年后数量有所回落并逐步趋稳，2022-2024年分别为19/9/11起2025年截至7月10日已录得11起。 衍生品周边最受关注，投资机构所投相比占比逐步提升。 在潮玩谷子赛道的投资布局中，被投企业可清晰划分为三大核心方向：IP内容方向、衍生品周边方 向和平台型方向，其中衍生品周边方向企业最受关注，2024年衍生品周边/IP内容方/平台型被投项目占比分别为60%/40%/0%。投 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Since 2025, the bond market has shown a "mountain" - shaped trend, with various meta - stories attracting market attention. However, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield has been oscillating within a narrow range around 1.75%, and it is difficult for interest rates to break through previous lows due to multiple constraints [3][7]. - The market needs to reconstruct stories in several aspects, such as the decoupling of real estate and interest rates, explaining new consumption through structural "breakthroughs", the end of the global low - interest - rate era, focusing on the endogenous economic momentum, and the need for step - by - step verification from commodity supply - demand, PPI - CPI to interest rates [3]. - In the second half of the year, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to be between 1.6% and 1.9%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield between 1.8% and 2.1%. The funds will remain flat, the yield curve will steepen, and the long - end bond interest rate will be priced around the policy rate + funds rate weighted + 30/40BP, with the interest rate peak likely to occur in the fourth quarter [3][137]. - In terms of strategies, it is recommended to maintain a neutral duration. For credit bonds, look for opportunities in short - end credit sinking and long - end high - grade bonds; for interest - rate bonds, seek opportunities in old bonds, local bonds, and non - key - maturity Treasury bonds [138][143]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamentals: Growth without Real Estate, Desensitization of Commodities and Interest Rates - The influence of the real estate sector on the bond market and GDP has been declining. The trading volume proportion of real - estate - related stocks in the A - share market has decreased from 5.58% in 2015 to 1.04% in 2025, and its weight in the Shanghai Composite Index has dropped from 4.32% in 2016 to 1.17%. The impact of real estate fluctuations on GDP has also weakened [9]. - Commodity prices, represented by real - estate - related commodities such as rebar and glass, have continued to decline. The prices of rebar and glass futures have dropped by 9% and 24% respectively as of June 30 [16]. - By observing economic indicators excluding real estate and liquor, it can be found that the market risk preference has increased, and asset prices are decoupling from the real - estate chain and the liquor industry [18][23]. 3.2 Inflation: New Consumption "Everywhere", but "Invisible" in Prices - The CPI growth rate has been low this year, but there are some signs of new consumption, such as the popularity of premium blind boxes and high - end beauty products. The traditional inflation framework may have failed, and the re - inflation framework of optional consumption has emerged [26]. - The Lego price index shows that Lego investment has a high return rate, and its price increase is not in line with the global CPI trend. China's new consumption represented by trendy toys may be experiencing a "Lego moment" [30]. - The growth logic of trendy toys such as Lego and Pop Mart is similar, including first - level quantity control, second - level circulation platforms, emotional value provision, etc. The new consumption represented by trendy toys may be at the starting point of price increases, and the traditional inflation narrative is changing [33][37]. 3.3 Economic "Scar Effect" Integral Repair: Endogenous Growth Curve of Technology and Consumption Phenomena 3.3.1 Bottom - up Integration of Technology and Consumption - The development of the technology industry, such as the rise of DeepSeek, is the result of the overseas AI model impact - response structure. The development of the AI industry has promoted the growth of product performance and asset prices [38][40]. - The growth of new consumption is also the result of long - term "integration". The performance growth of new - consumption companies is not fully reflected in their stock prices. The popularity of trendy toys represented by Pop Mart is the response to the endogenous demand of new - consumption structure [41][45]. 3.3.2 Looking at Consumption through Subsidies: Is it Demand Front - loading or Release of Endogenous Momentum? - The national subsidy for trading in old products for new ones has boosted social retail sales. However, there are concerns about the continuation of the subsidy in the second half of the year. Even if the subsidy declines, consumption still has growth potential in non - subsidy commodities and service - based consumption [51][58]. 3.4 Global Interest - Rate Perspective: The Lagged Effect of China's Interest Rates Breaking out of the "ZLB" (Zero - Lower - Bound) Zone 3.4.1 Global Perspective: Quantitative Evidence of the Gradual Rise of the Interest - Rate Level - Most countries have basically emerged from the ZLB zone. The global interest - rate factor has shown an upward trend, and China's bond market has had an independent downward trend in the past three years, but the future interest - rate level may rebound with the global trend [68][71]. - Through principal component analysis of the policy rates of 39 major countries and regions, the first and second factors have an explanatory power of 66.81% and 23.29% respectively. China's interest - rate trend is relatively independent of these global factors [74]. 3.4.2 China's Interest Rates May be Experiencing the Lagged Conduction of the Global Interest - Rate Upturn - Most countries that entered the low - interest - rate zone did not stay there permanently. Japan, which has been in the low - interest - rate zone for the longest time, also had multiple interest - rate rebounds. China's interest - rate decline may be a lagged effect, and it is difficult for China's interest rates to remain low independently of the global trend for a long time [82][94]. 3.4.3 Internal Factors Determine the Direction, External Factors Determine the Fluctuation - Tariffs are not the decisive factor for asset prices and the economic fundamentals this year. The internal factors of consumption, such as the recovery of tourism consumption, the formation of new - consumption trends, and the increase in consumer - loan growth, are more important [104][106]. - A stable trading framework for dealing with external tariff events can be established in three steps: setting a baseline, making qualitative predictions, and adjusting the baseline according to market changes [110]. 3.5 Institutional Behavior: Liability Shortage under Sufficient Liquidity? - The characteristics of institutional behavior this year are limited allocation - disk funds and a decline in the winning rate of trading - disk operations. Insurance companies have shifted to equity assets, and banks have suffered from liability - end losses, while rural commercial banks, as the main trading - disk institutions, have a lower winning rate [111][114]. - The change from sufficient liquidity to liability shortage is mainly due to the transformation of deposits from time to demand and the transfer from bank deposits to non - bank deposits. This will bring problems such as pressure on bank certificate of deposit issuance, differences in the assets and liabilities of large and small banks, and banks' need to sell bonds to support profits [118][126]. - Insurance companies' bond - buying behavior has shown trading characteristics, and bank - wealth management growth has been relatively weak [128][130]. 3.6 Changes are Brewing in the Quietness - The stock, bond, and commodity markets have shown seemingly contradictory trends this year. The equity market is relatively strong, the bond market is average, and the commodity market is weak. The pricing of the equity market is more leading and sensitive [134]. - In the second half of the year, the central bank's total - volume monetary policy is not expected to be overly loose. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to be between 1.6% and 1.9%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield between 1.8% and 2.1%. The yield curve will steepen, and the interest - rate peak may occur in the fourth quarter [136][137]. - Technically, the Treasury - bond futures price is in a volatile market, and there are still cautious factors in the medium term. In terms of strategies, it is recommended to maintain a neutral duration and look for opportunities in credit and interest - rate bonds [138][143].

Group 1: Market Trends - The micro-drama market in China is projected to reach 50.5 billion yuan in 2024, surpassing annual box office revenue for the first time, with expectations of 63.43 billion yuan in 2025 and 85.65 billion yuan in 2027 [1] - Xiaomi's YU7 SUV, launched on June 26, achieved over 200,000 pre-orders in just 3 minutes and 289,000 in 1 hour, priced at 253,500 yuan [1] - The popularity of plush toys like the Labubu has seen prices soar to over 10,000 yuan, indicating a trend in collectible and emotional purchases [1] Group 2: "She Economy" Concept - The "She Economy" is identified as a driving force in the market, with women increasingly becoming key decision-makers in household purchases, including cars and real estate [3][4] - Data shows that women aged 18-45 contribute 71% of fast-moving consumer goods spending, 68% of beauty product purchases, and 63% of education spending, highlighting their significant economic influence [6] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - There is a shift from rational to emotional consumption, with women leading this trend by purchasing items based on emotional value rather than just functionality or price [7][9] - Brands that understand and cater to women's emotional needs and aesthetic preferences are more likely to succeed in the current market [10][11] Group 4: Brand Marketing Strategies - Successful brands are shifting their focus from product functionality to emotional resonance, creating narratives that align with women's experiences and aspirations [10][12] - The ability to "create dreams" and connect with consumers on an emotional level is becoming a core competitive advantage for brands [11][12] Group 5: Future Implications - The evolving role of women as not just consumers but as trendsetters and decision-makers in the market is reshaping the landscape of brand marketing and product development [12][13] - Companies that can effectively engage with and understand the "She Economy" will have a strategic advantage in capturing market share and driving growth [13]

Group 1 - The article discusses the unique and humorous nature of Japanese gacha machines, particularly the "wanted criminal gacha" that dispenses figurines of fictional criminals, which has gained popularity online [1][3][5] - The developer of the gacha machine, Hiroki Terai, revealed that the criminals depicted are fictional and based on acquaintances, leading to a lighthearted reception from consumers [5][7] - The gacha machine has expanded in Japan, selling over 30,000 capsules and generating approximately 9 million yen in revenue, showcasing the commercial success of this novelty [9][49] Group 2 - Japan's gacha market is extensive, with over 500 billion yen (approximately 3.2 billion USD) in market size, having doubled since 2010, indicating a strong growth trend [49][63] - The gacha machines are prevalent across various locations, with an estimated 500,000 machines in Japan, selling nearly 300 million capsules annually [47][49] - Despite the popularity of gacha machines, the market size is significantly smaller than that of the Chinese blind box company Pop Mart, which is projected to exceed 13 billion yuan in sales in 2024 [63][72] Group 3 - The article highlights the creativity and diversity of gacha products, ranging from food items to absurd concepts, reflecting a culture of innovation in Japan [11][25][27] - Gacha machines have evolved from simple toy dispensers to complex marketing tools for popular IPs, with major companies like Bandai dominating the market [45][68] - The competitive landscape for smaller gacha manufacturers has become challenging, with many struggling to achieve significant sales volumes, indicating a saturated market [70][72]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent enhancements in China's departure tax refund policy aimed at boosting inbound consumption and facilitating foreign tourists' shopping experiences [1][6]. Group 1: Departure Tax Refund Policy Enhancements - The departure tax refund limit will increase from 10,000 RMB to 20,000 RMB, and the minimum purchase amount for refunds will decrease from 500 RMB to 200 RMB starting in April 2025 [1][6]. - The "immediate refund" service will be gradually promoted, making the refund process more straightforward and appealing to tourists [1][6]. Group 2: Impact on Retail and Consumption - Wangfujing Group reported a 67% increase in departure tax refund business volume in the second half of 2024 compared to the first half, with a staggering 633% year-on-year growth during the May Day holiday in 2025 [2]. - The optimization of departure tax refund policies is expected to unleash the potential of inbound tourism consumption, promoting "secondary consumption" and "related consumption" [2]. Group 3: Growth in Domestic Products and International Appeal - Domestic products, including traditional crafts and electronics, are gaining popularity among foreign tourists, with many expressing interest in unique Chinese goods [3][4]. - The structure of products eligible for departure tax refunds is continuously improving, with a focus on including more categories such as traditional Chinese medicine and robotics [4]. Group 4: Market Potential and Future Directions - The share of inbound consumption in China's GDP is approximately 0.5%, significantly lower than the 1% to 3% seen in major global economies, indicating substantial growth potential [5][6]. - The government aims to increase the number of departure tax refund stores and enhance service levels to better meet the needs of foreign tourists [6].

Core Insights - The article discusses the launch of POPOP, a jewelry brand under Pop Mart, and its initial performance in Beijing and Shanghai, highlighting consumer behavior and market positioning [1][3][20] Group 1: Store Performance and Consumer Behavior - POPOP's first store in Beijing experienced moderate foot traffic during its opening week, with no stock shortages reported, indicating sufficient inventory levels [1] - In Shanghai, the store saw long queues, with consumers willing to spend significant amounts on jewelry, reflecting strong initial interest [3][5] - The customer demographic primarily consists of couples and affluent individuals, with many purchasing items priced from hundreds to thousands of yuan [5][6] Group 2: Product Offering and Pricing Strategy - POPOP's jewelry is primarily made from S925 silver, featuring designs inspired by popular IPs like MOLLY and LABUBU, with prices ranging from 319 yuan to 2,699 yuan [14][17] - The brand employs a pricing strategy that includes high-end products as anchors to stimulate mid-range product sales, similar to its blind box strategy [16][20] - Despite higher pricing compared to similar products on platforms like Taobao, POPOP maintains a significant brand premium, with a markup of 300% to 500% [17] Group 3: Brand Positioning and Market Strategy - The launch of POPOP represents a strategic shift for Pop Mart from a toy company to an IP-driven brand, aiming for diversification beyond traditional product lines [20][21] - The brand's focus on emotional value and unique design over material cost aligns with consumer preferences, particularly among younger demographics [13][24] - Experts suggest that Pop Mart's approach to jewelry is distinct from traditional brands like Pandora and Swarovski, positioning itself as a cultural IP brand [21][23] Group 4: Challenges and Consumer Sentiment - Initial consumer feedback indicates concerns about product quality and supply chain management, with reports of quality issues shortly after purchase [24][25] - The brand's operational maturity is questioned, with reports of inadequate staffing and supply issues affecting customer experience [25] - Despite these challenges, consumers express a willingness to purchase for emotional value, indicating a potential for sustained interest if quality issues are addressed [24][27]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant divergence in performance between new and old consumption sectors in 2024, highlighting the strong growth of new consumption brands like Pop Mart and Lao Pu Gold compared to the stagnation of traditional sectors like liquor and condiments [4][5]. Group 1: Changes in Consumption Investment Logic - The investment logic in consumer stocks is shifting from "alcohol content" to "new content," driven by evolving consumer needs and preferences [5]. - As material needs are met, consumers are increasingly seeking products that fulfill psychological and social desires, leading to the rise of new consumption brands that cater to younger demographics [6]. - Economic conditions influence consumer spending power, with current trends favoring value-driven purchases as consumers prioritize cost-effectiveness amid economic uncertainty [9][10]. Group 2: New Consumption Investment Opportunities - New consumption companies have shown remarkable stock performance, with Pop Mart and Lao Pu Gold significantly contributing to the growth of various funds [12]. - As of Q1 2025, 207 funds held Pop Mart shares worth approximately 9.928 billion yuan, with notable funds achieving net value growth rates of 61.6% and 58.74% [12][13]. - The emergence of new consumption has been characterized by a mix of market replacement and cultural expansion, indicating higher growth potential compared to traditional sectors [11]. Group 3: Reasons for Missed Investment Opportunities - Different responses and strategies among fund managers have led to varied outcomes in capitalizing on new consumption trends, influenced by their understanding and investment frameworks [15]. - Older fund managers may struggle to grasp the appeal of new consumption products, while younger managers are more attuned to these trends, impacting their investment decisions [16]. - Regulatory constraints and the structured investment process in public funds can limit the ability to invest in emerging new consumption stocks, which may not fit established investment criteria [17]. Group 4: New Consumption vs. Old Consumption - The valuation of new consumption stocks has surged, with high price-to-earnings ratios indicating potential risks if growth expectations are not met [20]. - In contrast, traditional consumption stocks like Kweichow Moutai and Haitian Flavoring have seen valuation compression, presenting a more stable investment opportunity [21]. - The article suggests that while new consumption is currently favored, traditional sectors are adapting and may present future opportunities as they innovate and enhance shareholder returns [24]. Group 5: Conclusion - Investors are advised to choose between new and old consumption based on their risk tolerance, with a focus on long-term value and growth potential [25].

Core Insights - The article highlights the emergence of a youth-driven consumption trend in Jiangsu, particularly in Nanjing, where new retail brands are proliferating to meet the demands of young consumers [4][5] - The concentration of new consumption brands in core urban areas is driven by market potential, resource aggregation, and efficient operations, enhancing competitive advantages [5][6] - As the market saturates, brands are shifting focus to less developed urban and county markets, tapping into a large, youthful consumer base that craves diverse fashion options [7][9] Group 1: Market Dynamics - New consumption brands are clustering in core urban areas due to high population density and strong purchasing power, which provide a rich pool of potential customers [5][6] - Data from a report indicates that Nanjing has the highest number of new retail brand stores, with eight districts ranking in the top 15 in Jiangsu [5] - The shift towards county markets is seen as a response to the saturation in major cities, with brands finding new opportunities in previously overlooked areas [7][11] Group 2: Consumer Experience - The influx of new brands has significantly improved the shopping experience for young consumers, offering a wider range of products from high-end to niche brands [9][10] - Specific examples include the successful opening of popular brands like Heytea in smaller cities, which has created a buzz among local youth [7][10] - The introduction of diverse retail options has transformed county areas into fashionable destinations, enhancing their urban image and cultural atmosphere [11] Group 3: Employment and Entrepreneurship - The growth of new consumption brands has generated numerous job opportunities for local youth, from retail staff to management positions [10] - Young entrepreneurs are also emerging, inspired by the new market dynamics, leading to the establishment of unique local businesses [10] - The article cites a local coffee shop founded by a young entrepreneur as an example of how new consumption trends are fostering creativity and cultural engagement in the community [10]

Group 1: Tesla and New Energy Vehicles - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other government bodies, has launched a campaign for new energy vehicles to enter rural markets, with 124 models including Tesla's Model 3 and Model Y being selected [1] - Tesla's entry into the rural market is driven by increasing demand for quality, performance, and environmental attributes among rural consumers, supported by improved infrastructure and stable electricity coverage [1] - Tesla's pricing strategy aligns well with the needs of rural consumers, providing an attractive purchasing option and enhancing its competitive edge in this market [2] Group 2: Luxury Car Market Dynamics - The automotive industry is experiencing a price war, with traditional luxury brands like Mercedes-Benz and BMW facing declining sales, prompting them to seek partnerships with local Chinese companies [4][5] - In 2024, the combined global investment of luxury brands (BBA) is projected to exceed €35 billion (approximately ¥270 billion), indicating their commitment to maintaining competitiveness in the Chinese market [4] - The ongoing price reductions by luxury brands create challenges for new entrants in the automotive market, suggesting that the competition is far from over [5] Group 3: Consumer Trends and Product Categories - During the 618 shopping festival, sunscreen clothing emerged as a hot-selling category, with various subcategories being highlighted on e-commerce platforms [7] - The UPF (Ultraviolet Protection Factor) is a critical factor for consumers when purchasing sunscreen clothing, but the increasing number of small and unregulated manufacturers has led to inconsistent UPF labeling [7][8] - The high-end ice cream market in China is becoming increasingly competitive, with Häagen-Dazs facing challenges from brands like DQ, which offers lower prices and a larger number of stores [10] Group 4: Digital Transformation in E-commerce - Digital influencers have transitioned from being supplementary to primary figures in live-streaming sales, with a penetration rate exceeding 60% in the market [13] - JD.com's digital influencers have shown a significant impact on sales, with an average conversion rate increase of 30% during the 618 shopping festival [14] - The ability of digital influencers to operate continuously without downtime provides a competitive advantage in the e-commerce landscape [14] Group 5: Consumer Behavior and Market Impact - The national subsidy program has stimulated consumer spending in various categories, but its recent tapering has led to a split in consumer behavior, with some rushing to purchase before the subsidy ends [16][17] - The subsidy program has primarily benefited larger brands and distributors, exacerbating the market divide and impacting smaller players negatively [17] - The emotional consumption trend among younger consumers is driving significant market growth, with the emotional consumption market projected to reach ¥1.2 trillion this year [19]