Economic Indicators - The US Services PMI unexpectedly contracted in May, dropping from 51.6 in April to 49.9, below market expectations of 52[2] - The Manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.2 to 48.5, also below the expected 49.5, indicating a continued contraction in the manufacturing sector[2] - The New Orders Index for services plummeted from 52.3 to 46.4, reflecting a significant decline in demand[2] Inflation and Price Pressures - The Prices Index for services surged from 65.1 to 68.7, marking the highest expansion rate since late 2022, indicating inflationary pressures[2] - The Manufacturing Prices Index remained high at 69.4, despite a slight decrease from 69.8, suggesting persistent inflation in goods[2] Economic Growth Projections - The projected GDP growth rates for the US are expected to decline from 2.1% in Q1 to 1.8% in Q2, 1.3% in Q3, and 1% in Q4 of this year[2] - The PCE inflation rate is anticipated to rise from 2.5% in Q1 to 3% in Q3 and 2.9% in Q4[2] Policy Environment - The policy environment is expected to remain unfavorable in the next three months, with the White House likely to continue pressuring trade partners and the Federal Reserve possibly pausing interest rate cuts[1] - Improvement in the policy environment is anticipated in Q4, with potential agreements with major trading partners and a return to interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[1]