Core Insights - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June 2025 is at 49.7%, indicating a slight improvement but still within a downward trend [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.5%, showing continued expansion [1] - The central bank's monetary policy committee suggests increasing regulatory intensity to maintain ample liquidity and support key sectors [1] Manufacturing Sector - The production and new orders indices are at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, reflecting a rise of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points [1] - The purchasing volume index increased to 50.2%, up by 2.6 percentage points [1] - Price indices for major raw materials show a rebound, with purchasing and factory gate price indices at 48.4% and 46.2%, rising by 1.5 percentage points [1] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The construction business activity index is at 52.8%, up by 1.8 percentage points, indicating high activity in civil engineering [1] - The service sector business activity index is stable at 50.1%, with some industries experiencing high activity while others see a decline [1] - The business activity expectation index is in a high range, suggesting optimism among enterprises [1] Monetary Policy - The central bank announced a 300 billion MLF operation on June 25, with a net injection of 118 billion, marking four consecutive months of excess renewal [1] - The monetary policy is expected to expand domestic demand and stabilize growth in the second half of the year, with MLF likely to continue increasing [1] - The focus is on supporting private and small enterprises, revitalizing existing resources, and stabilizing the real estate market [1]

Economic Indicators - The US Services PMI unexpectedly contracted in May, dropping from 51.6 in April to 49.9, below market expectations of 52[2] - The Manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.2 to 48.5, also below the expected 49.5, indicating a continued contraction in the manufacturing sector[2] - The New Orders Index for services plummeted from 52.3 to 46.4, reflecting a significant decline in demand[2] Inflation and Price Pressures - The Prices Index for services surged from 65.1 to 68.7, marking the highest expansion rate since late 2022, indicating inflationary pressures[2] - The Manufacturing Prices Index remained high at 69.4, despite a slight decrease from 69.8, suggesting persistent inflation in goods[2] Economic Growth Projections - The projected GDP growth rates for the US are expected to decline from 2.1% in Q1 to 1.8% in Q2, 1.3% in Q3, and 1% in Q4 of this year[2] - The PCE inflation rate is anticipated to rise from 2.5% in Q1 to 3% in Q3 and 2.9% in Q4[2] Policy Environment - The policy environment is expected to remain unfavorable in the next three months, with the White House likely to continue pressuring trade partners and the Federal Reserve possibly pausing interest rate cuts[1] - Improvement in the policy environment is anticipated in Q4, with potential agreements with major trading partners and a return to interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the monitoring framework for assessing the economic impact of tariff shocks in the U.S., focusing on trade, prices, and risk preferences [3][27] - As of mid-May, the average tariff rate on U.S. imports has decreased to around 16%, but it remains at a historical high, with potential GDP decline of 0.65% and inflation increase of 1.7% due to tariffs [4][13][10] - The article emphasizes that the current economic condition is characterized by "stagflation," which is the baseline assumption for the short term [18][19] Group 2 - In the short term, key economic indicators to monitor include imports, inventory levels, and inflation pressures, with a notable increase in imports and stable inventory turnover ratios [4][39] - The article highlights that the inflation effects of tariffs may be delayed but are expected to manifest, impacting consumer demand [4][58] - The U.S. economy is likely to follow a dynamic path from "stagflation" to "slowdown" or "recession," depending on how tariff conflicts evolve [5][105] Group 3 - The article notes that the U.S. has experienced a significant "import rush" in the first quarter, with a stable inventory-to-sales ratio, indicating robust domestic demand despite tariff impacts [4][39] - Tariffs have led to a shift in U.S. import patterns, with increased imports from countries with lower tariff rates, such as Canada and Mexico, while imports from China have decreased significantly [36][30] - The article suggests that certain U.S. export sectors, particularly oil, coal, and basic metals, may face significant challenges due to retaliatory tariffs [47][5] Group 4 - The inflation effects of tariffs are becoming evident, with U.S. retail prices starting to reflect the impact of tariffs on imported goods [58][61] - The article indicates that the inflationary pressures may suppress consumer spending, as observed in the correlation between inflation and consumer behavior [69][61] - The financial market's volatility and increased financial pressure could further suppress investment and consumer sentiment in the U.S. economy [75][88]

Inventory Analysis - As of February, the overall actual inventory-to-sales ratio in the U.S. manufacturing and trade sectors is approximately 1.5 months, with manufacturers at 1.9 months, wholesalers at 1.3 months, and retailers at 1.4 months, all at low percentiles since the pandemic[2] - If assuming that the inventory of manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers only serves domestic retail sales, the overall inventory could cover about 4.2 months of sales[2] - The low inventory-to-sales ratio may indicate limited buffer space against supply-demand imbalances, potentially leading to upward pressure on inflation[2] Industry-Specific Insights - In the retail sector, the actual inventory-to-sales ratio for furniture, appliances, and consumer electronics is low at only 1 month, placing it in the 6.5% percentile since the pandemic[3] - Conversely, the inventory-to-sales ratio for motor vehicles and parts, as well as building materials, exceeds 2 months, with motor vehicles at approximately 2.5 months (88.5% percentile) and building materials at about 2 months (85.2% percentile)[3] - In manufacturing and wholesale, machinery, textile raw materials, and related products have higher inventory-to-sales ratios, all exceeding 2 months, with machinery at 2.9 months (83.6% percentile) and textile raw materials at 2.8 months (70.4% percentile)[3] PMI and Inventory Trends - As of April, the ISM manufacturing PMI inventory index decreased to 50.8% from 53.4% in March, indicating a cooling in pre-tariff stockpiling behavior[4] - The customer inventory index remains low at 46.2%, suggesting concerns about the sustainability of overall manufacturing inventory levels[4] - Among 18 manufacturing sectors, 5 reported increased inventory in April, while 8 sectors, including textiles and transportation equipment, saw declines[4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent competitive tender offers for ST Xinchao by Zhejiang Jindi Petroleum and Inner Mongolia Yitai Coal represent a first in A-share market history, creating complex decision-making scenarios for investors [1][2]. Group 1: Competitive Tender Offers - Zhejiang Jindi Petroleum's offer includes a purchase of 20% of ST Xinchao's total shares at a price of 3.10 yuan per share, with a tender period from April 8, 2025, to May 7, 2025, requiring a minimum acceptance of 8% of total shares [1]. - Inner Mongolia Yitai Coal's offer is for 51% of ST Xinchao's total shares at a price of 3.40 yuan per share, with a tender period from April 23, 2025, to May 22, 2025, requiring a minimum acceptance of 28% of total shares [1][3]. - As of April 18, ST Xinchao's stock price was 2.84 yuan, indicating potential for price appreciation compared to the tender offers [2]. Group 2: Investor Considerations - Investors may prefer Yitai's offer due to its higher price and larger share acquisition, but the acceptance conditions are more stringent compared to Jindi's offer [3]. - Jindi Petroleum has only deposited 20% of the required guarantee, raising questions about its financial capability to fulfill the offer [3][4]. - Regulatory improvements are suggested, including a full guarantee deposit system to mitigate risks associated with incomplete funding for tender offers [4]. Group 3: Regulatory Framework - The "Management Measures for the Acquisition of Listed Companies" stipulates that if a competitive offer arises, the initial offer must be extended if less than 15 days remain until its expiration [2]. - Enhanced information disclosure regulations are recommended to ensure clarity in the tender process, especially when multiple offers exist for the same stock [4].

以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者申万宏源策略 申万宏源策略 . 我们强调体系性、实战性 目录 价换量为主。 6）周期：石油煤炭供需压力导致价格继续承压，贵金属景气高位波动，工业金属供给格局改善、价格有望延续上行。 这些方面没有明显乐观预期，若关键验证期平稳度过，价值和核心资产可能演绎补涨行情。 场大幅调整之际，中国资产再次回到相对全球具备良好性价比的估值位置：（1）经过市场急速深度调整后，当前A股大盘宽基指数估值仍然远低于美股，与欧洲和东南亚相当，而港股 一周回顾 专题研究 ，可能开启新一轮 AI 全面扩散行情。 本订阅号仅面向申万宏源客户中的专业投资者及风险承受能力为C3、C4、C5的 普通投资者(以下简称"可接收本订阅号推送信息的投资者"),仅供在新媒体 背景下的研究信息、观点的及时沟通。因本订阅号受限于访问权限的设置,任何 不符合前述条件的订阅者,敬请自行评估接收本订阅号推送信息的适当性,申万 宏源研究不因订阅人收到本订阅号推送信息而视其为可接收本订阅号推送信息的 投资者。 本订阅号不是申万宏源研究的研究报告发布平台。本订阅号推送信息均基于申万 宏源研究已正式发布的研究报告进行编写,相关研究观点均是基 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the systematic and practical analysis of various industrial sectors, highlighting opportunities for investment in pharmaceuticals, food and beverage, and textile sectors while noting challenges in other areas [2]. Group 1: Industrial Sector Monthly Tracking - Revenue, industrial added value, product price (PPI), and profit growth rates were matched across various industrial sectors, identifying high-growth sectors such as non-ferrous metal mining, transportation equipment manufacturing, and machinery repair [2]. - Sectors facing profit growth pressure include coal, black metal mining, pharmaceuticals, food and beverage, textiles, and light industry manufacturing [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - As of March 2025, the overall manufacturing PMI is at 50.5%, with strong performance in equipment manufacturing (52%) and strategic emerging industries (59.6%) [3][11]. - Consumer demand remains resilient, with durable goods showing a decline in external demand but stable internal demand [4]. Group 3: High-Frequency Indicators - In the automotive sector, sales showed significant recovery in February 2025, supported by policies and a low base from the previous year [4]. - The white goods sector is expected to see stable production in Q2 2025, although external demand is weakening due to increased tariffs and previous export surges [4]. Group 4: Advanced Manufacturing - The photovoltaic and lithium battery sectors are experiencing price recovery, with engineering machinery sales improving both domestically and internationally [5][6]. - Industrial robot production has accelerated, indicating a positive trend in the machinery sector [6]. Group 5: Financial Sector - Banks are maintaining stable net interest margins and non-performing loan ratios, with Q1 2025 showing active loan issuance despite pressures on retail lending [6][7]. - Insurance premiums are under pressure due to demand front-loading and weak acceptance of new product structures [7]. Group 6: Real Estate and Construction - Real estate prices and sales are stabilizing, with a slight recovery in the second-hand housing market [7]. - The construction materials sector is benefiting from increased demand, with cement prices continuing to rise [7]. Group 7: Commodity Markets - Oil and coal prices are under pressure due to supply-demand imbalances, while precious metals are experiencing high volatility [8]. - Industrial metals are expected to see price increases due to tightening supply conditions [8].