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美股展望:政策博弈孕育新机遇
Group 1 - The report indicates that the U.S. stock market has shown resilience despite significant volatility since the beginning of 2025, with major indices recovering from earlier declines caused by tariff policies [5][6][7]. - The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices have largely regained their losses, reflecting investor confidence in the U.S. economic fundamentals and adaptability to policy adjustments [6][7]. - The report anticipates a volatile upward trend for the U.S. stock market in the second half of 2025, driven by economic fundamentals and policy benefits, particularly from the "Beautiful Bill" tax cuts [14][26]. Group 2 - The "Beautiful Bill" tax plan is expected to be a key driver for the U.S. stock market, with projected tax cuts amounting to $3.8 trillion over the next decade, while also increasing the fiscal deficit by approximately $2.5 trillion [17][18]. - The report highlights that the tax cuts will create structural opportunities in traditional energy, high-tax state consumption, and domestic automotive sectors, while clean energy and healthcare sectors may face challenges [26]. - The performance of various sectors has been uneven, with industrials, utilities, and consumer staples leading gains, while non-essential consumer goods and healthcare lagged due to trade uncertainties and high valuations [9][14]. Group 3 - The technology sector, particularly the Magnificent 7 (Mag 7), has shown signs of recovery, with a significant rebound in stock prices following earlier declines due to tariff policies [21][22]. - The report notes that the Mag 7 companies have demonstrated strong earnings growth, with a 28% year-over-year increase in Q1, surpassing the S&P 500's 9% growth [22]. - The tax plan's provision allowing full deduction of domestic R&D and experimental expenses is expected to benefit technology companies heavily reliant on research and development [22][26].