SHMET 网讯：美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）上周日表示，美国在2026年不存在陷 入经济衰退的风险，并宣称民众将很快从特朗普政府在贸易和税收方面的经济政策中获益。 在接受NBC新闻《会见新闻界》（Meet the Press）节目采访时，贝森特表示："我对2026年非常、 非常乐观。我们已经为实现强劲且非通胀性的经济增长奠定了基础。" 贝森特称，共和党大规模支出计划——《大而美法案》（One Big, Beautiful Bill Act）的部分内容 仍在逐步生效，其经济效果尚未完全显现。这项新法律将特朗普2017年的减税政策永久化，同时包括用 于抵消社会保障税的老年人"奖金"，以及更大的州和地方税收抵扣。该计划还为小费收入、加班工资和 汽车贷款提供了税收减免。 贝森特补充说，医疗保健成本也有望变得更加可负担。这位财长表示，特朗普政府本周将在该议题 上发布更多消息。目前，由于与《平价医疗法案》市场补贴延期相关的国会僵局，数百万人的医疗成本 预计将被推高。 贝森特指出，限制加班费税收、削减小费税和部分人群的社会保障税，以及使汽车贷款可抵扣等政 策变化，将提高美国工薪阶层的实际收入水 ...

CBO在20日发布的文章中预估，2025年-2035年这11年内将总共结余3万亿美元，低于8月份的4万亿美元 估算值。CBO曾在7月份表示，特朗普的减税法案将在未来十年（截至2034年）内使财政赤字增加3.4万 亿美元。 CBO主任斯瓦格尔（Philip Swagel）在文章中表示："大约三分之二的下调是由于对新数据的调整。"他 还表示，自8月份以来关税税率的调整"也降低了对赤字的预估影响"。 近几个月来，特朗普政府与多个贸易伙伴达成协议，降低了年初加征的关税税率。CBO目前估计，实 际关税税率比一年前的2.5%高出约14个百分点，该机构在8月份曾测算实际税率高出18个百分点。 特朗普政府近期一直在调整关税水平，以降低一些商品的成本。 当地时间20日，美国国会预算办公室（CBO）将特朗普政府关税政策带来的长期财政结余预期下调了1 万亿美元，加剧外界对美国借贷需求的担忧。统计数据显示，关税结余不足以完全抵消特朗普政府减税 政策的影响。 少了1万亿美元 在截至9月份的本财年，美国财政赤字为1.78万亿美元，2024年为1.82万亿美元。 CBO也认为，与美国政府原本的预算赤字相比，更高的关税收入将在2025年-2 ...

特朗普提出的向美国公民发放2000美元关税"分红"支票计划遭遇现实挑战，财政部长贝森特表示该方案 需要国会立法批准。 当地时间周日，贝森特在接受媒体采访时被问及该计划时，他回应称："我们拭目以待。我们需要为此 立法。"这一表态，是特朗普政府核心成员首次就该计划的实施路径做出明确说明，无异于向市场的乐 观预期泼了一盆冷水。 贝森特的言论与特朗普近期的积极宣传形成鲜明对比。上周五，特朗普在"空军一号"上对记者表示，这 些支票将于明年某个时候发放给"除富人以外的每一个人"。他强调："这是一大笔钱，但我们从关税中 也获得了大量资金。关税让我们能够支付股息。"特朗普甚至称，此举还将有助于削减债务。 然而，贝森特也暗示了另一种可能性，即所谓的"股息"或许只是对现有减税政策的"重新包装"。他在另 一场合称，2000美元的"股息"可以有多种形式，可能包括总统议程中的减税措施，例如对小费、加班费 和社保收入免税等。 从财政角度看，"关税股息"计划面临最直接的挑战是其庞大的成本与实际收入之间的巨大鸿沟。 根据中间派监督组织"尽责联邦预算委员会"（Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget ...

Core Insights - The total U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, marking a new record high, with a rapid increase from $36 trillion in November 2024 to $37 trillion in August 2025, and then to $38 trillion just two months later [1][2] Group 1: Historical Context of Debt Increase - The expansion of U.S. debt is historically linked to continuous tax cuts since the 1980s, starting with the Reagan administration's Economic Recovery Tax Act, which significantly reduced tax rates and led to substantial budget deficits [2] - Subsequent administrations, including those of Bush and Trump, implemented further tax cuts that collectively reduced government revenue by approximately $10 trillion, contributing significantly to the rising national debt [2] Group 2: Interest Burden - The interest payments on the national debt are projected to reach $1.4 trillion by 2025, accounting for 26.5% of federal revenue, which translates to over $1 billion in interest payments each month [4][6] - The increasing interest costs are consuming a significant portion of federal spending, with mandatory expenditures like Social Security, Medicare, and interest payments now comprising 73% of total federal spending [4][6] Group 3: Political and Economic Implications - The U.S. government is facing a precarious situation where it struggles to manage its debt while engaging in political maneuvers that may exacerbate the debt crisis, such as imposing tariffs and undermining the independence of the Federal Reserve [7][9] - The potential for a government default poses significant risks not only to the U.S. economy but also to global financial markets, highlighting the urgent need for responsible fiscal management [6][9]

Group 1 - The market is showing strong performance as it approaches the second-to-last trading day of the quarter, with investors ignoring a slight pullback from historical highs [1] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) remains below 16, indicating a bullish sentiment among traders despite potential market catalysts in the coming days [1] - Analyst Seth Basham from Wedbush notes that investor sentiment is optimistic, supported by expectations of AI monetization and a potential interest rate cut cycle [1] Group 2 - The real estate market is showing signs of vitality, with a significant increase in refinancing activity due to declining mortgage rates, leading to a 20% rise in new home sales in August [1] - The implementation of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" tax reduction policy is expected to improve consumer spending, potentially increasing tax refund levels by at least 5% by 2026 [2] - Many sectors in the U.S. stock market, including healthcare, consumer staples, real estate, and materials, are currently valued below historical levels [2] Group 3 - Concerns about the current market resembling the internet bubble era are addressed, with Basham noting that the proportion of loss-making IPOs is below 50%, unlike the 75% seen in 1999 [2] - There have not been significant merger deals comparable to the $350 billion merger between AOL and Time Warner, which could raise concerns about value destruction [2] - The Federal Reserve's policy shift has amplified speculative behavior in the market, with a tendency towards liquidity expectations rather than fundamentals [2] Group 4 - A notable increase in high short-interest stocks has been observed, which is seen as a classic catalyst for speculative behavior, although it may not be sustainable [2] - The strong performance of high-momentum stocks reflects retail investor enthusiasm, but there are signs that this speculative surge may indicate a potential market top [2] - The acceleration of speculative bets has increased as the Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates, although the momentum has shown signs of weakening in recent days [2]

Group 1 - The article discusses the long-term global peace since World War II, leading to significant population growth and economic expansion, but also highlights the rising issues of wealth disparity, environmental pollution, and increasing national debts [1] - Global macro leverage ratios have been increasing, primarily driven by government borrowing, with government debt levels reaching historical highs post-2008 financial crisis [2][5] - The article notes that the macro leverage ratio in China has surpassed 300%, exceeding that of the US and developed countries, indicating a trend of increasing government debt [2][14] Group 2 - The structure of leverage in major economies shows that government sectors are increasing leverage while corporate and household sectors are stabilizing or reducing their leverage [5][10] - The article explains that only governments are willing to increase leverage counter-cyclically, as they can coordinate fiscal and monetary policies to create favorable borrowing conditions [7][10] - It highlights that during significant economic events, government deficits and debts tend to spike, as seen during the COVID-19 pandemic [16][19] Group 3 - The article discusses the challenges of tax reforms, noting that high-income countries tend to maintain stable tax revenues while facing pressures to reduce corporate tax rates [22][24] - It points out that the US has seen a decline in corporate tax burdens while increasing payroll taxes, potentially exacerbating wealth inequality [24][25] - Japan's tax structure has shifted towards consumption taxes, which disproportionately affect lower-income groups [27][28] Group 4 - The article emphasizes the need for increased government spending on social security due to aging populations, with the US seeing a significant rise in mandatory spending related to social welfare [31][34] - China's government has been increasing subsidies to social insurance funds significantly, indicating a growing fiscal burden due to demographic changes [37][38] - The article warns of diminishing returns on debt-driven growth, suggesting that the efficiency of using debt to stimulate economic growth is declining [49][51] Group 5 - The article suggests that China should focus on demand-side strategies to address overcapacity and low inflation, advocating for increased consumption from both government and households [51][58] - It discusses the importance of improving the efficiency of fiscal spending, shifting from construction-focused investments to social welfare and public services [54][58] - Recommendations include enhancing transparency in public debt, reducing local government hidden debts, and improving the overall fiscal framework to support sustainable growth [59][60]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the U.S. economy, suggesting that it has been in a "rolling recession" for the past three years, but is now entering a new bull market phase, as indicated by recent market performance [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - Mike Wilson from Morgan Stanley claims that the significant market sell-off in April marked the end of the bear market, and the current market is experiencing a healthy gradual rise rather than a sharp increase [1]. - The S&P 500 index has shown a V-shaped recovery, rising 30% since its April low, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 9% [1]. - Wilson predicts that the S&P 500 could reach 7,200 points by mid-2026, driven by strong earnings, AI applications, a weaker dollar, tax cuts, pent-up demand, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Wilson advises investors to buy on dips, emphasizing that the current bull market is still in its early stages [3]. - Despite the cautious approach of institutional investors during market downturns, retail investors continue to buy stocks, contributing to the market's rapid recovery [5]. - The article highlights the risks associated with the buy-the-dip strategy, as investors may end up buying at unfavorable prices if the market continues to decline [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in the US dollar index, highlighting its decline to below 96 and subsequent recovery to around 100, driven by changes in US trade policy and economic indicators [1][3]. Group 1: US Dollar Index and Economic Indicators - The US dollar index experienced its worst half-year performance since 1973, dropping to below 96 before rebounding in July, marking the first monthly increase of the year [1]. - In July, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices reached new highs, while the 10-year US Treasury yield stabilized below 4.5% [1]. Group 2: Trade Policy Changes - The rebound in the dollar index is attributed to the rising influence of Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, who shifted trade policy from aggressive tariffs to a more systematic approach, including differentiated tariff rates and investment incentives [3]. - The new trade strategy includes a framework agreement with the UK and a "truce" with China, allowing for substantive negotiations while maintaining a tough stance on other countries like Brazil and Canada [3][4]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Economic Risks - The implementation of the "Great American Act" has led to a projected increase in the US fiscal deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about the sustainability of US fiscal policy [5]. - The Federal Reserve's policy effectiveness is declining, with recent meetings showing internal disagreements and external pressures from the Trump administration, which could impact market sentiment [8][9]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Stock Performance - Despite the dollar's rebound, underlying vulnerabilities remain, including uncertainties surrounding new tariffs and the potential for a market correction, particularly in meme stocks that have shown volatility [9]. - Recent adjustments in non-farm payroll data indicate a potential increase in unemployment rates, suggesting that the labor market may be reaching a tipping point, which could further affect economic stability [12].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Department announced a significant increase in net borrowing for Q3 2025, projecting over $1 trillion, up from the previously expected $554 billion, aligning with Wall Street analysts' forecasts [1][3] - This announcement follows the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" Act on July 4, which raised the total borrowing limit by $5 trillion, allowing the Treasury to issue new debt [3] - As of July 3, government cash reserves were only $313 billion, less than half of the amount from the previous year, highlighting the need for increased borrowing [3] Group 2 - The Treasury expects net borrowing for Q4 2025 to reach $590 billion, indicating ongoing pressure on the U.S. government's ability to service debt and maintain spending [3] - The upcoming financing announcement from the Treasury will detail the structure of this borrowing, including the timing and distribution of bond issuances, which is anticipated to significantly impact the bond market [3] - There is a general expectation that the Treasury will keep long-term bond issuance stable while increasing short-term Treasury bill sales, which may lead to greater volatility in short-term interest rates [3] Group 3 - The tax cuts implemented during the Trump administration have resulted in reduced federal tax revenues, creating long-term pressure on fiscal income [3] - Although recent increases in tariff revenues have somewhat alleviated this pressure, the sustainability of high tariff income remains uncertain due to changes in international trade agreements [3]

Core Insights - The actual economic impact of Trump's tariff policy has diverged significantly from initial predictions, leading to unexpected consequences for the dollar and inflation [1][5][9] - The anticipated "stagflation" effect has not materialized, as the U.S. economy remains resilient despite rising tariff revenues [4][6][9] Group 1: Tariff Policy and Economic Impact - Trump's tariff policy was expected to strengthen the dollar and induce stagflation, with economists estimating a 0.1% reduction in economic growth and a 0.1% increase in inflation for every 1% rise in tariff rates [5][9] - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. has increased from 2.5% to 15%, yet the dollar has weakened, experiencing its most severe decline in half a century [5][6] - Tariff revenues are growing at an annualized rate of $300 billion, approximately four times higher than the previous year, but the economy continues to show resilience [4][6] Group 2: Factors Mitigating Negative Effects - The surge in artificial intelligence investments and ongoing government fiscal stimulus have countered the negative impacts of the tariff policy [4][6][9] - Projected annual spending on AI infrastructure by tech giants has increased by $60 billion since January, reaching $350 billion, which has bolstered economic growth [6][9] - Trump's tax cuts have allowed U.S. companies to absorb much of the tariff costs, with an estimated savings of $100 billion in 2023, primarily through tax reductions [7][9] Group 3: Complexity of Economic Systems - The current economic situation illustrates the limitations of simplistic economic models that attribute outcomes to single factors, as the economy is influenced by multiple variables [8][9] - Despite the potential for stagflation to emerge if average effective tax rates continue to rise, the current tariff rates have not overwhelmed the larger forces supporting growth and controlling inflation [9][10]