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亚马逊(AMZN):AI驱动云计算和电商业务双引擎
First Shanghai Securities· 2025-12-04 11:11
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Amazon (AMZN) with a target price of $303.50, indicating a potential upside of 30% from the current price of $233.00 [2][5]. Core Insights - Amazon's revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of $710.6 billion for FY2025, $797.1 billion for FY2026, and $888.2 billion for FY2027, reflecting a growth rate of approximately 11% annually [3][5]. - Operating profit is expected to increase from $81.1 billion in FY2025 to $129.8 billion by FY2027, with an operating margin improvement from 11.4% to 14.6% [3][5]. - The company is focusing on AI-driven enhancements in both its cloud computing (AWS) and e-commerce segments, which are expected to bolster operational efficiency and market competitiveness [5]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for FY2023 was $574.8 billion, with a projected increase to $637.9 billion in FY2024, and continuing to grow in subsequent years [3][17]. - The operating profit for FY2023 was $36.9 billion, with a significant forecasted increase to $68.6 billion in FY2024 [3][17]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from $2.90 in FY2023 to $5.53 in FY2024, and further to $7.20 in FY2025, indicating a strong growth trajectory [3][5]. Business Segments - AWS is highlighted as a core profit and growth engine, with Q3 revenue showing a 20% year-over-year increase to $33 billion, and a backlog of orders reaching $200 billion [5]. - The e-commerce segment is leveraging AI to enhance customer shopping experiences, with 250 million customers using the AI shopping assistant, Rufus, which has improved purchase completion rates by 60% [5]. - The logistics network is being upgraded to achieve faster delivery speeds, with plans to expand same-day delivery services to over 1,000 cities by 2025 [5].