ab 18 August 2025 Global Research US Semiconductors and Semi Equipment SemiBytes: Tariffs Update, Earnings Previews (SMTC, MRVL) Further discussions suggest more of a broad formula for Tariff exclusions In response to an ongoing flood of investor queries around the tariff topic, we went back to our industry contacts for additional clarity on what US investment commitments might be required for companies to secure tariff exclusions. To this end, we believe exclusions could apply to investment commitments mad ...

Core Insights - The upgrade of NVIDIA's architecture is driving the development of liquid cooling, with the GB300 liquid cooling system covering over 80% of high-power components, and the Rubin architecture expected to achieve 100% liquid cooling by 2027 [1][4] - The ASIC cooling segment shows high gross margin potential, with a surge in ASIC chip shipments anticipated in 2026, as major tech companies like Google, Meta, and Amazon plan to release large quantities of ASIC chips [4][5] - The liquid cooling industry is expected to give rise to new industry leaders, with significant growth potential for Chinese companies in this sector due to their strong manufacturing and materials science foundations [5][6] Group 1: Liquid Cooling Development - The GB300 liquid cooling system utilizes a Direct-to-Chip Liquid Cooling (DLC) architecture, allowing for precise thermal conduction by cooling liquid through microchannel cold plates directly attached to high-power components [2][3] - The GPU liquid cooling market is projected to reach 80 billion yuan by 2026, driven by the demand for liquid cooling solutions in high-performance computing environments [3][4] - The first batch of GB300 shipments will still use the Bianca architecture, while future iterations will adopt independent liquid cooling plate designs to enhance cooling efficiency [4][38] Group 2: ASIC Chip Market - ASIC products are primarily designed and developed in collaboration with clients, leading to more flexible pricing and higher gross margins, making them a key focus for future industry growth [4][5] - Google has fully adopted liquid cooling solutions for its TPU clusters, achieving a GW-level operational scale with high availability [4][5] - Major companies are expected to release significant quantities of ASIC chips, with Google projected to ship 1.5 to 2 million TPUs by 2025, and Meta planning to release 1 to 1.5 million high-performance AI ASIC chips between 2025 and 2026 [4][5][56] Group 3: Industry Leaders and Opportunities - Companies like Qiyi Technology and Shuguang Data Creation are positioned to become leaders in the liquid cooling market, with successful deployments and innovative solutions [5][6] - The liquid cooling market is anticipated to expand significantly, with NVIDIA's GB200 and GB300 architectures driving increased adoption and market penetration [4][47] - The integration of liquid cooling solutions in data centers is expected to enhance overall system performance and efficiency, creating new opportunities for growth in the sector [5][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [1] Core Insights - The capital expenditures (CapEx) and performance of major cloud vendors such as Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Google have shown significant growth in Q2 2025, indicating an acceleration in downstream cloud demand. Meta and Google have raised their full-year CapEx forecasts, reflecting this trend [2] - The Software as a Service (SaaS) sector has demonstrated strong performance, with a median revenue exceeding expectations by 2.8%, marking the highest level since Q2 2022. The annual recurring revenue (ARR) for reported companies reached $2.187 billion, a 106.1% increase year-over-year [2][71] - Despite strong performance, software stock prices have been affected by concerns over AI disruption, with the BVP Nasdaq Emerging Cloud Index dropping over 8% since July 31 [2][71] Summary by Sections 1. Cloud Vendors' CapEx and Performance Review - In Q2 2025, Microsoft reported a CapEx of $24.2 billion, a year-over-year increase of 27.4% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 13.1%. Over 50% of this spending was directed towards long-term assets related to cloud computing and AI [9] - Microsoft’s revenue reached $76.441 billion, a year-over-year growth of 18.1%, with Azure cloud revenue growing 39% [15] - Meta's Q2 2025 CapEx was $17 billion, a 100.8% increase year-over-year, with a full-year CapEx forecast raised to between $66 billion and $72 billion [22] - Google reported a CapEx of $22.446 billion, a 70.23% year-over-year increase, with expectations for 2026 CapEx to rise to $85 billion [35] - Amazon's Q2 2025 CapEx reached $31.4 billion, a 91.5% increase year-over-year, primarily for AWS-related investments [46] 2. SaaS Vendors' Performance Review - The SaaS sector's overall revenue median exceeded expectations, with a notable increase in ARR, reflecting a strong upward trend in performance [2][71] - The current EV/NTM revenue median for SaaS companies is 5.1 times, indicating high valuations despite growth slowdowns [76] - The software sector's stock performance has been under pressure due to AI disruption concerns, despite strong earnings reports [71]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Greater China Technology Hardware** industry, particularly the implications of **Amazon's** results for **Asia Pacific Tech Hardware Stocks** [1][4]. Core Insights - **Amazon's Investment Strategy**: Amazon has expressed a positive outlook on continued investments in **data centers, chips, and power** to capitalize on large **Generative AI** opportunities, which is expected to positively impact its data center hardware supply chain [2][7]. - **AWS Performance**: Amazon Web Services (AWS) reported a revenue of **US$30.9 billion**, reflecting a **17.5% year-over-year increase**. The annualized revenue run rate has increased to **US$123 billion** from **US$117 billion** in the previous quarter [7]. - **Capital Expenditure**: Amazon's capital expenditure for the second quarter was **US$31.4 billion**, with management indicating that this level of investment is expected to continue into the second half of 2025, primarily driven by AWS [7]. - **Supply Constraints**: AWS is currently facing supply constraints in several areas, including **power, chips, and server components**, indicating that demand still exceeds supply [7]. Company-Specific Insights - **Unimicron and NYPCB**: Within the coverage, **Unimicron** (focused on ABF substrates for Trainium) is rated **Equal-weight (EW)**, while **NYPCB** (ABF substrates for networking chips) is rated **Underweight (UW)** due to concerns over **ABF overcapacity** and **stretched valuations** [3]. - **Trainium Supply Chain**: Companies like **Wiwynn** and **Gold Circuit** are favored in the **Trainium2 server supply chain**, while **Quanta** and **Wistron** are identified as beneficiaries of AI GPU server demand [8]. Additional Important Information - **Analyst Ratings**: The report includes various stock ratings for companies within the Greater China Technology Hardware sector, indicating a mix of **Overweight (O)**, **Equal-weight (E)**, and **Underweight (U)** ratings across different companies [64]. - **Investment Banking Relationships**: Morgan Stanley has disclosed potential conflicts of interest due to its investment banking relationships with several companies mentioned in the report [5][20]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the implications for the technology hardware sector in the Asia Pacific region.

Core Viewpoint - Amazon's Q2 earnings report reveals mixed results, with AWS growth slowing and profitability declining, raising concerns about its market leadership in the cloud services sector [3][4][5] Financial Performance - Amazon's total revenue for Q2 reached $167.7 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase excluding foreign exchange impacts [30] - AWS revenue grew by 17.5% year-over-year, totaling $30.9 billion, but this growth is seen as insufficient compared to competitors [5][24] - AWS operating margin dropped sharply from 39.5% in Q1 to 32.9% in Q2, primarily due to increased capital expenditures for AI support [3][33] AI Supply Constraints - CEO Andy Jassy acknowledged a supply constraint in AI computing power, stating that demand currently exceeds supply capabilities, with electricity being the primary limiting factor [4][6][39] - The company is investing heavily in AI infrastructure, including the development of its proprietary AI chip, Trainium2, which is claimed to be 30% to 40% more cost-effective than competitors' GPUs [2][9][25] Competitive Positioning - Jassy emphasized AWS's competitive advantages in security and operational performance, attempting to counter concerns about falling behind competitors in the AI race [4][9] - Despite AWS's challenges, Amazon's retail and advertising segments showed resilience, with advertising revenue increasing by 22% year-over-year [8][23] Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about the long-term potential of AWS and its AI capabilities, with a focus on expanding its service offerings and improving operational efficiency [28][39] - Amazon's Project Kuiper aims to bridge the digital divide by providing broadband connectivity to underserved areas, indicating a strategic move into satellite internet services [51]

Core Viewpoint - Amazon's Q2 earnings report reveals a mixed performance, with strong revenue but significant concerns over AWS's growth and profitability, particularly in the context of AI demand outpacing supply and rising operational costs [1][2][5][6]. Financial Performance - Amazon's total revenue for Q2 reached $167.7 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase when excluding foreign exchange impacts [27]. - AWS generated $30.9 billion in sales, reflecting a 17.5% year-over-year growth, but this growth is seen as insufficient compared to competitors [1][30]. - AWS's operating profit margin fell sharply from 39.5% in Q1 to 32.9% in Q2, primarily due to increased capital expenditures for AI support [2][31]. AI and Supply Constraints - CEO Andy Jassy acknowledged a significant supply constraint in AI capabilities, stating that demand currently exceeds supply, with electricity being the primary limiting factor [5][6][41]. - The company is investing heavily in AI infrastructure, including the development of its proprietary AI chip, Trainium2, which is claimed to be 30% to 40% more cost-effective than competitors' GPUs [3][8][22]. Competitive Landscape - Despite AWS's strong position, concerns are growing about its ability to maintain market leadership as competitors achieve higher growth rates [1][30]. - Jassy emphasized AWS's advantages in security and operational performance, attempting to reassure investors about its competitive edge [2][8][37]. Other Business Segments - Amazon's retail business performed well, with record sales during Prime Day and a 22% year-over-year growth in advertising revenue [3][7][30]. - However, Jassy expressed caution regarding potential impacts from tariffs, indicating uncertainty about future demand and pricing [4][7][18]. Future Outlook - The company plans to continue investing in AI and cloud infrastructure to meet growing demand, with expectations of gradual improvements in supply constraints over the coming quarters [31][41]. - Amazon's Project Kuiper aims to address the digital divide by providing broadband access to underserved areas, indicating a long-term growth strategy beyond its core e-commerce and cloud services [47].

Group 1: Figma Overview - Figma is a cloud-based collaborative design software that allows multiple roles such as designers, developers, and product managers to work together in real-time, disrupting traditional design software models [1] - As of March 2025, Figma has 13 million monthly active users, with two-thirds being non-traditional designers, making it the most popular UI design tool globally [1] - Figma's revenue for FY24 reached $749 million, a 48% increase year-over-year, with Q1 FY25 revenue at $228 million, up 46% [2] Group 2: Figma's Business Model and Growth - 70% of Figma's revenue comes from large customers, with the number of customers generating over $100,000 in annual recurring revenue (ARR) increasing to 1,031, a 47% growth [2] - Figma is expanding from a single design tool to a comprehensive platform covering the entire process from conception to launch, with 76% of customers using two or more products [2] - The total addressable market (TAM) for Figma is projected to be $33 billion, with strong user growth and AI integration expected to drive future revenue [2] Group 3: Figma's Valuation and Market Comparison - Figma's current revenue growth exceeds 40%, with a free cash flow margin of 28% and a 40% rule metric above 60%, suggesting a higher valuation compared to similar SaaS companies like Crowdstrike [3] - Figma's IPO pricing range was raised to $30-32 per share, valuing the company at $18.8 billion, up from an initial range of $25-28 [2] Group 4: Amazon's Financial Performance - Amazon reported Q2 FY25 revenue of $167.7 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, and net profit of $18.2 billion, up 35% [4] - AWS revenue for Q2 FY25 was $30.87 billion, a 17% increase year-over-year, but growth was slower compared to competitors like Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud [5][6] Group 5: Amazon's Business Segments - Amazon's online store revenue for Q2 FY25 was $61.49 billion, an 11% increase year-over-year, slightly exceeding market expectations [5] - The third-party seller services segment generated $40.35 billion in revenue, up 11% year-over-year, while advertising revenue reached $15.69 billion, a 17% increase [9] Group 6: Amazon's Future Outlook - Amazon's Q3 FY25 revenue guidance is between $174 billion and $179.5 billion, indicating a 10-13% year-over-year growth, but operating profit guidance is below market expectations [5] - AWS faces supply constraints, with a backlog of $195 billion in orders as of June 30, reflecting a 25% year-over-year increase [6]

Core Insights - The article provides a comprehensive overview of AI data centers in the U.S., detailing their locations, chip types, and operational statuses, highlighting the growing investment in AI infrastructure by major companies [1][2]. Company Summaries - **Nvidia**: Operates 16,384 H100 chips in the U.S. for its DGX Cloud service [1]. - **Amazon Web Services (AWS)**: Plans to build over 200,000 Trainium chips for Anthropic and has existing GPU data centers in Phoenix [1]. - **Meta**: Plans to bring online over 100,000 chips in Louisiana by 2025 for training Llama 4, with current operations of 24,000 H100 chips for Llama 3 [1]. - **Microsoft/OpenAI**: Investing in a facility in Wisconsin for OpenAI, with plans for 100,000 GB200 chips, while also operating data centers in Phoenix and Iowa [1]. - **Oracle**: Operates 24,000 H100 chips for training Grok 2.0 [1]. - **Tesla**: Partially completed a cluster in Austin with 35,000 H100 chips, aiming for 100,000 by the end of 2024 [2]. - **xAl**: Has a partially completed cluster in Memphis with 100,000 H100 chips and plans for a new data center that could hold 350,000 chips [2]. Industry Trends - The demand for AI data centers is increasing, with several companies planning significant expansions in chip capacity [1][2]. - The introduction of new chip types, such as GB200, is being adopted by major players like Oracle, Microsoft, and CoreWeave, indicating a shift in technology [5]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying as companies like Tesla and xAl ramp up their AI capabilities with substantial investments in chip infrastructure [2][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" investment rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - Marvell has raised its 2028 potential market size (TAM) for data centers from $75 billion to $94 billion, with custom acceleration chips expected to reach $55.4 billion, growing at a CAGR of 53% from 2023 to 2028 [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of the "XPU attachment market," which includes various components such as NICs and power management ICs, projected to grow significantly [2] - The trend towards using copper cables for short-distance interconnections in CSP ASIC server solutions is becoming clear, with major companies like AWS and Microsoft adopting AEC copper cables [3] Summary by Sections Market Size and Growth - Marvell's updated TAM includes $55.4 billion for custom acceleration chips, $19 billion for interconnect chips, and $13.2 billion for switching chips, with respective CAGRs of 53%, 35%, and 17% from 2023 to 2028 [2] Industry Trends - The report highlights a clear trend towards AI ASIC chips, with increasing demand for copper cables among major CSPs, indicating a robust growth opportunity for related suppliers [3] Key Companies in the Supply Chain - Companies involved in the copper cable and connector market include Bochuang Technology, Zhaolong Interconnect, and Huafeng Technology, which are expected to benefit from the growing demand for AI ASIC chips and related components [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the semiconductor and AI sectors, including 中芯国际 (SMIC), 海光信息 (Haiguang), and others, indicating strong growth potential in the domestic AI and computing landscape [5][6]. Core Insights - The domestic AI landscape is witnessing significant advancements with the emergence of models like 豆包 (Doubao) and DeepSeek, which are leading the charge in multi-modal and lightweight AI model development, respectively [1][2]. - The report highlights a shift towards domestic computing power solutions, with chip manufacturers rapidly adapting to the evolving AI ecosystem, particularly through advancements in semiconductor processes and AI training capabilities [2][3]. - There is a notable increase in capital expenditure among cloud computing firms, driven by the rising demand for AI computing infrastructure, which is expected to lead to a "volume and price rise" scenario in the cloud computing market [3][4]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Breakthroughs in Domestic AI Models - 豆包 has emerged as a leading multi-modal model, enhancing capabilities in speech, image, and code processing, with a significant release of its visual understanding model in December 2024 [1][11]. - DeepSeek focuses on lightweight model upgrades, achieving a remarkable cost-performance ratio with its DeepSeek-V3 model, which has 671 billion total parameters and costs only 557.6 million USD, positioning it among the world's top models [1][12]. - The rapid iteration of domestic models, including updates from 通义千问 and others, reflects a competitive landscape that is accelerating the development of AI applications [1][34]. Section 2: Advancements in Domestic Computing Power - 中芯国际 is advancing its semiconductor processes, with N+1 and N+2 technologies being developed to support the growing demand for AI chips, achieving significant performance improvements [2][56]. - The report notes that the domestic chip industry is evolving, with companies like 昇腾 (Ascend) and others making strides in AI training and inference capabilities, thereby reducing reliance on international competitors [2][59]. - The cloud computing sector is experiencing a capital expenditure boom, with companies like 华勤 and 浪潮 rapidly deploying servers that are compatible with domestic computing power solutions [3][4]. Section 3: Infrastructure and Supply Chain Developments - The report emphasizes the need for enhanced computing infrastructure to meet the surging demand for AI applications, with significant investments being made in server and power supply innovations [3][4]. - Innovations in power supply and cooling systems, particularly the shift from traditional air cooling to liquid cooling, are becoming essential to support the increasing power density in data centers [4]. - The report identifies key players in the supply chain, including companies in power supply, cooling, and server manufacturing, that are poised to benefit from the growth of the AI and computing sectors [5].