5 February 2026 UBS Global I/O Semiconductors Advanced packaging: accelerating expansion to support new Cloud AI product cycle in 2026-27 Faster industry CoWoS capacity expansion Based on our analysis, we raise our estimate of the industry's CoWoS capacity to 150kwpm by the end of 2026E, from 135kwpm previously, up from 90kwpm at the end of 2025. The more aggressive capacity expansion reflects the strength of new cloud AI products ramping from H226E into 2027E, including Nvidia's Rubin, Google's TPU v8AX an ...

美股财报季危险重重。 在披露财报后，美国科技巨头亚马逊股价大幅跳水，在美股盘后交易中暴跌超11%。有分析指出，由于2026年资本支出指引意外猛增至2000亿美 元，亚马逊的营业利润指引均值不及预期，令投资者开始质疑如此高投入未来能否得到应有的可观回报。 有华尔街机构警告称，当前AI（人工智能）基础设施建设规模史无前例，市场暂时难以对相关个股进行合理定价，近期投资者对AI领域的担忧情绪 正在升温。 自由现金流大跳水 美东时间2月5日，美股盘后，亚马逊股价大幅杀跌，一度暴跌超11%，截至发稿，跌幅仍达11.26%。 亚马逊最新披露的财报显示，2025年第四季度实现净销售同比增长14%至2133.9亿美 元，高于分析师预期的2114.9亿美元；四季度EPS（每股收益） 为1.95美元，同比增长4.8%，略低于共识预期的1.96美元，较三季度的增速36.4%显著放缓。 但AWS业务的盈利能力扩张的势头略有放缓。财报显示，2025年第四季度AWS业务贡献营业利润124.7亿美元，同比增长17.3%，当季营业利润率 35.0%，低于上年同期的36.9%。 关于市场高度关注的资本开支，亚马逊预计，2026年的资本支出将达到 ...

OpenAI Trashes Nvidia - 24/7 Wall St.[S&P 5006,991.00 +0.09%][Dow Jones49,356.90 -0.10%][Nasdaq 10025,857.40 +0.28%][Russell 20002,649.21 +0.46%][FTSE 10010,244.70 -0.98%][Nikkei 22554,363.50 +0.72%][Stock Market Live February 3, 2026: S&P 500 (SPY) Soaring on AI Strength][Technology]# OpenAI Trashes Nvidia### 24/7 Wall St. Key PointsOpenAI reportedly is unsatisfied with the latest Nvidia Corp. ([NASDAQ: NVDA]) artificial intelligence chips and is seeking alternatives.It is a new chapter in the fight for AI ...

Group 1: Anthropic's Financial Projections - Anthropic has lowered its gross margin projection for 2025 to 40%, which is a decrease of 10 percentage points from earlier expectations, but still an improvement from the previous year [3] - If inference costs for non-paying users of the Claude chatbot are included, the gross margin would be approximately 38% [3] - Anthropic's projected gross margins are expected to exceed 70% by 2027, while OpenAI anticipates similar margins by 2029, indicating a trend towards profitability in the AI sector despite high training costs [3] Group 2: AI Model Training Costs - Anthropic's expected costs for training AI models in 2025 are projected to be around $4.1 billion, reflecting a 5% increase from previous estimates [4] - OpenAI's training costs for AI models were approximately $9.4 billion last year, highlighting the significant financial investment required in AI development [4] Group 3: ChatGPT's Business Model and Growth - ChatGPT's revenue has grown 3X year over year, reaching $20 billion+ in 2025, up from $2 billion in 2023, indicating unprecedented growth in the AI sector [5] - The compute capacity used by ChatGPT has also increased significantly, growing from 0.2 GW in 2023 to approximately 1.9 GW in 2025, which correlates with revenue growth [5] Group 4: AWS and AI Infrastructure - AWS has developed its own custom CPU, Graviton, which offers 40% better price performance compared to leading x86 processors, and is now used by 90% of its top 1,000 customers [17][18] - AWS's Trainium2 chip, which is utilized by Anthropic for training models, has been fully subscribed, and the newly released Trainium3 chip is expected to be 40% more price performant than its predecessor [19] Group 5: Market Dynamics and AI Adoption - The current stage of AI adoption is characterized by high demand, with AI labs consuming significant compute resources, while enterprises are beginning to utilize AI for cost avoidance and productivity [20][21] - There is a notable gap in the market where many enterprise workloads are not yet using AI inference, suggesting potential for future growth as these applications are deployed [22]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of "speed + power" as the core contradiction in the future development of the AI industry, highlighting significant market movements in both speed and power sectors over the past year [1][9] - For 2026, the focus should be on observing the commercial closure rhythms of CSPs and large model vendors to grasp the overall industry beta, while actively seeking value expansion and capital expenditure shifts in specific segments [1][10] - The report suggests that capital expenditure (Capex) and return on investment (ROI) are critical variables in understanding computing power demand, which is primarily driven by token counts and Capex [1][10] Investment Strategy - The computing power industry is viewed as the foundation of technology, with a long-term positive outlook. The report recommends actively seeking value expansion and capital expenditure shifts in specific segments, maintaining the focus on "speed + power" [3][12] - Key areas of investment include domestic computing power, semiconductor equipment, storage, and AI terminals [3][12] Capital Expenditure Analysis - Major cloud service providers (CSPs) have significantly increased their capital expenditures, with the top five CSPs' combined Capex reaching $308.1 billion in Q3 2025, a 75% year-on-year increase [24][27] - Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle are leading this trend, with Google and Microsoft showing particularly aggressive Capex growth to support AI infrastructure [27][28] - The report highlights that Google’s Capex for 2024 is projected to be $52.5 billion, a 63% increase year-on-year, while Microsoft’s Capex is expected to reach $75.6 billion, an 84% increase [27][28] AI Model and Chip Development - The report discusses the rapid iteration of Google's Gemini model family, which has introduced significant advancements in AI capabilities, including multi-modal understanding and enhanced reasoning abilities [36][41] - NVIDIA is identified as a key player in the computing power landscape, with its customer base including CSPs, large model vendors, and government clients, driving substantial revenue growth [24][30] - The report notes that the demand for AI chips is expected to grow, with companies like OpenAI forming strategic partnerships with major chip manufacturers to enhance their infrastructure [62][63] Domestic Computing Power Growth - The report anticipates a breakthrough year for domestic computing power in 2026, driven by the acceleration of domestic large models and positive capital expenditure outlook from cloud vendors [2][6] - The supply side is expected to transition from single-point breakthroughs to multi-point developments, indicating a robust growth trajectory for domestic computing power vendors [2][6] Semiconductor and Storage Opportunities - The semiconductor sector is highlighted as benefiting from an AI-driven storage supercycle, with equipment manufacturers poised to gain from original factory expansions [2][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in driving growth in the storage industry, predicting rapid expansion in this sector [2][8]

智通财经APP获悉，欧洲金融巨头法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)周二发布研报称，随着微软(MSFT.US)升 级换代后的第二代自研人工智能芯片(AI芯片)"Maia 200"横空出世，且这款自研AI芯片引爆新一轮AI算 力产业链投资狂潮，聚焦于大型AI数据中心定制化AI芯片(即 AI ASIC芯片)的ASIC领军者们——例如美 国芯片设计巨头迈威尔(MRVL.US)及其最大竞争对手博通公司(AVGO.US)有望最大程度受益这股投资狂 潮的算力领军者。 法巴银行的分析师们在研报中强调微软引领的云计算巨头们自研AI芯片趋势可谓大势所驱，未来ASIC 与英伟达AI GPU算力集群之间的AI算力基础设施市场份额有可能从当前的1:9/2:8大幅抬升至接近对 等。 资深分析师卡尔·阿克曼(Karl Ackerman)领导的法巴银行分析师团队表示，在自研AI芯片趋势触发的新 一轮A算力投资狂潮中，除了上述两大AI ASIC领军者们，其次则是数据中心高速互连(DCI)、高速铜缆 以及数据中心光互连领军者们也有望大幅受益于新一轮AI算力投资狂潮。 从更深层次的角度洞察整个AI算力产业链体系，不难发现AI ASIC、DCI ...

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 微软也加入了大型科技公司摆脱对英伟达依赖的浪潮，推出了自己的人工智能（AI）芯片。各大 科技公司都在开发定制芯片或寻求供应商多元化，以降低对英伟达的依赖——英伟达占据了AI芯 片市场90%的份额。然而，英伟达以其图形处理器（GPU）为代表，正通过构建AI工厂展开反 击 。 它 不 再 仅 仅 销 售 GPU ， 而 是 通 过 垂 直 整 合 芯 片 、 服 务 器 、 软 件 和 模 型 ， 转 型 为 一 家 " 全 栈 AI"基础设施公司，决心不放弃其在AI市场的领导地位。预计英伟达今年将成为台积电最大的客 户。尽管一年前中国市场曾因DeepSeek芯片强调性价比而引发"冲击"，但英伟达的股价和销售额 依然大幅增长。 加速摆脱英伟达 由于价格高昂、供应短缺以及封闭的生态系统（CUDA），大型科技公司正在加速摆脱对英伟达 GPU的依赖。 NVIDIA GPU的高昂成本是关键驱动因素。它们不仅价格昂贵，而且供应常常无法满足需求，导 致及时采购困难重重。此外，尽管NVIDIA芯片用途广泛，但它们并未针对特定公司的特定AI任务 进行优化。因此，大型科技公司正在开发专为自 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Amazon (AMZN) is labeled as a strong buy due to a long-term transition from generative AI hosting to gaining an advantage in Agentic Infrastructure, particularly through the integration of Amazon's proprietary silicon, Trainium3 [1] Group 1 - Amazon is expected to benefit from a strategic shift in technology focus, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The next phase of AI trading will depend on autonomous agents, with companies like Amazon expected to lead this trend [1] Group 1: AI Market Outlook - Bank of America believes that the peak of the AI industry will occur after the IPOs of notable AI unicorns valued over $10 billion, such as OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI, anticipated around 2026 [1] - The report indicates that 2026 will mark the year when autonomous AI capable of executing tasks independently will dominate the market [1] Group 2: Amazon's Position - Amazon is highlighted as the top stock pick for Q1 2026, driven by the expected acceleration in Amazon Web Services (AWS) growth, projected to reach a 21% annual growth rate [2] - The company has made advancements in its proprietary AI chip, Trainium, with the latest version improving efficiency and computational power, potentially making AWS the lowest-cost provider for AI workloads [2] - Amazon's retail business is expected to see profit margins increase from 6.1% in 2025 to 8.3% in 2027, aided by advertising growth, efficient inventory management, and robotics [2] Group 3: AI Shopping Assistant - Amazon's AI shopping assistant, Rufus, currently offers shopping recommendations and price tracking, with potential upgrades for full automation capabilities [3] - A possible automation shopping agreement between Amazon and OpenAI in 2026 may include revenue-sharing terms [3] Group 4: Other Potential Winners - Wayfair has made significant progress in furniture shopping and is an early partner of Google's "smart checkout" feature, developing an AI assistant for common inquiries [4] - The travel industry is identified as a key battleground for AI agents in 2026, with companies like Expedia Group transitioning from traditional booking sites to AI-driven travel agency providers [4] - AppLovin's position in mobile gaming and expansion into e-commerce is expected to shield it from industry headwinds, utilizing AI for targeted advertising [4] - Roblox is developing an advertising plan aimed at its large user base of approximately 150 million daily active users, with AI tools like Studio Assistant enhancing game development speed [5]

Core Viewpoint - The next phase of AI trading will depend on autonomous agents, with Amazon and five other stocks likely to lead this surge according to Bank of America [1] Group 1: AI Industry Insights - The AI sector has been centered around chatbots and large language models for the past two years, with 2026 expected to mark the year of "autonomous AI" dominance [1] - The peak of AI industry prosperity is anticipated to occur after the IPOs of notable AI unicorns valued over $10 billion, such as OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI, which are speculated to go public in 2026 [1] Group 2: Amazon's Position - Amazon is highlighted as the top stock pick for Q1 2026, driven by the expected acceleration in Amazon Web Services (AWS) growth, projected to reach a 21% annual growth rate [2] - Amazon's advancements in proprietary AI chips, particularly the Trainium3, are expected to enhance efficiency and computing power, potentially making AWS the lowest-cost provider for AI workloads [2] - The retail segment of Amazon is set to improve profit margins through advertising growth, efficient inventory management, and robotics, with retail profit margins projected to rise from 6.1% in 2025 to 8.3% in 2027 [2] Group 3: AI Shopping Assistant and Partnerships - Amazon's AI shopping assistant, Rufus, currently offers shopping recommendations and price tracking, with potential upgrades for full automation capabilities [3] - A possible automation shopping agreement between Amazon and OpenAI in 2026 may include revenue-sharing terms related to advertising [3] Group 4: Other Potential Winners - Wayfair has made significant strides in furniture shopping and is an early partner of Google's "smart checkout" feature, developing an AI assistant for common inquiries [4] - The travel industry is identified as a key battleground for intelligent agent AI in 2026, with Expedia Group transitioning from a traditional booking site to an AI travel agency infrastructure provider [4] - AppLovin's position in mobile gaming and expansion into e-commerce is expected to mitigate industry headwinds, with its Axon product utilizing AI for targeted advertising [4] - Roblox is developing an advertising plan aimed at its large user base of approximately 150 million daily active users, which could position it as a significant advertising destination [4][5]