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【医药】流感样病例占比高于历史同期,提示关注流感疫苗、病毒检测、药品等板块——流感疫情跟踪点评(251112)(王明瑞/吴佳青)
光大证券研究· 2025-11-13 23:04
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant increase in influenza cases and the potential investment opportunities in related products such as vaccines, diagnostic tests, and medications due to the rising demand driven by the flu season [4][5][6]. Group 1: Influenza Situation - The incidence of influenza-like illness (ILI) has risen, with southern provinces reporting an ILI percentage of 4.6% in week 44 of 2025, up from 4.1% the previous week and higher than the same period in 2022 and 2024 [4]. - Northern provinces reported an ILI percentage of 5.1%, also showing an increase from 3.7% the previous week and higher than the same period in previous years [4]. - The flu season in 2025 is expected to be more severe than in previous years, with a notable change in circulating strains, particularly A(H3N2), which may increase the risk of breaking through herd immunity [4]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - **Influenza Vaccines**: The low penetration rate of flu vaccines in China presents a significant growth opportunity as demand is expected to rise with the flu season approaching [5]. - **Virus Testing**: The demand for rapid and accurate diagnostic tests for respiratory viruses is anticipated to grow, benefiting companies that offer such testing products [6]. - **Cold and Specialty Medications**: The demand for cold medications is expected to increase in Q4 2025, with potential sales exceeding market expectations due to the rising flu cases and the clearing of social inventory formed during the COVID-19 pandemic [6].