白银等贵金属行业

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有色及贵金属周报合集-20250810
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-10 12:50
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the text regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report Gold and Silver - This week, London gold rose 2.57%, and London silver rose 5.95%. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 92.5 to 88.5. The 10 - year TIPS fell to 1.88%, and the 10 - year nominal interest rate rose to 4.23%. The US dollar index was at 98.08. The price fluctuation of COMEX gold was mainly due to the expected tariff on Swiss gold, but this tariff transaction is likely temporary. It is recommended to focus on cross - market arbitrage of COMEX - SHFE and COMEX - LBMA, with the main direction of narrowing the spread. Overall, it is difficult to predict the trend of gold and silver, and they are generally in a range - bound state [6]. Copper - The fundamental situation of copper is weak, but there is still macro - risk sentiment, and the price is oscillating. Global total inventory has increased significantly, with a notable increase in LME inventory. The spot premium of domestic copper has weakened, and the arrival premium of Southeast Asian copper has declined. Although there is macro - uncertainty, it does not constitute a negative factor. In trading strategies, unilateral operations should be cautious, and term positive spreads of forward contracts are favorable based on the long - term inventory depletion logic [86][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Conditions - Gold and silver prices rebounded this week. The gold - silver ratio decreased, and the 10 - year TIPS declined. The US dollar index was at 98.08 [6]. Transaction - related Data - **Price and Spread**: COMEX - LBMA spread widened due to tariff expectations but converged at the end of Friday. Overseas and domestic gold and silver price spreads, month - to - month spreads, and cross - market spreads all showed certain changes [6][16]. - **Inventory and Position**: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.13 million ounces, and the registered warehouse receipt ratio rose to 55.5%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.17 million ounces to 506.49 million ounces, and the registered warehouse receipt ratio dropped to 37.6%. Gold futures inventory increased by 300 tons, and silver futures inventory decreased by 25.57 tons to 1158 tons. ETF inventories of gold and silver increased [44][46][48]. - **Other Indicators**: The gold 1M lease rate was - 0.23%, and the silver 1M lease rate was 1.77%. The correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and 10YTIPS continued to decline [61][66]. Copper Market Conditions - The price of copper was in an oscillating state. The global total inventory increased, with a significant increase in LME inventory. The market has strong expectations for interest rate cuts, and the US dollar index declined [86][90]. Transaction - related Data - **Price and Spread**: LME copper spot discount widened, domestic copper spot premium weakened, and the arrival premium of Southeast Asian copper declined. The term structure of Shanghai copper weakened, and the COMEX copper C structure narrowed [90][102]. - **Inventory and Position**: Global total copper inventory increased, with a notable increase in LME inventory. The positions of Shanghai copper, LME copper, international copper, and COMEX copper all decreased, and the CFTC non - commercial long net position decreased [90][103]. - **Supply - related Data**: The tight supply of copper concentrates has been alleviated, and the spot TC has increased marginally. The scrap - refined copper spread of recycled copper is weak, and the import loss has widened. The production of refined copper has increased more than expected, and imports have increased [90]. - **Demand - related Data**: In July, the operating rate of copper product enterprises weakened month - on - month. The processing fees of copper rods and tubes are at relatively low levels in the same period of history. The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remains low, and the finished product inventory of copper rods has decreased [92].