中信证券研报指出，硅基材料行业目前处于周期底部盘整，供给端目前已经实质性放缓，但行业未经历 深度亏损，行业自发出清困难，期待后续"反内卷"政策破局。建议关注硅基材料行业向下游高景气赛道 延伸拓展的公司。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent share transfer of 5.08% of Hoshine Silicon Industry's shares from its controlling shareholder, Ningbo Hoshine Group, to Xiao Xiugan, highlighting the financial pressures faced by the group and the company's declining performance in the silicon industry [1][5][16]. Group 1: Share Transfer Details - Hoshine Group plans to transfer 5.08% of Hoshine Silicon's shares to Xiao Xiugan for a total price of 2.634 billion yuan, at a price of 43.90 yuan per share, which is nearly 10% lower than the closing price of 48.71 yuan on July 16 [1]. - After the transfer, Hoshine Group's shareholding will decrease from 46.24% to 41.16%, while Xiao Xiugan will become the fourth largest shareholder with 5.08% [2]. - Prior to the transaction, Hoshine Group and its concerted actions held a total of 78.59% of Hoshine Silicon's shares, which will drop to 73.51% post-transaction [2]. Group 2: Financial Pressures and Performance - Hoshine Group has indicated a need for funds, citing both personal financial requirements and the developmental needs of the listed company [5][6]. - The group has previously pledged shares to raise funds for debt repayment, with a total of 4.51 billion shares pledged, accounting for 48.52% of their holdings and 38.13% of Hoshine Silicon's total shares [8]. - Hoshine Silicon's performance has been declining, with an expected net loss of 300 million to 400 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant drop from previous profits due to weak downstream demand for industrial silicon [16]. Group 3: Company Background and Market Position - Hoshine Silicon, established in 2005 and listed in 2017, is a leading player in the silicon industry, being the only high-tech enterprise with capabilities across the entire silicon-based industrial chain [3][4]. - The company reached a peak stock price of 259.80 yuan per share in September 2021, with a market capitalization of 279 billion yuan, making the founding family extremely wealthy [4]. - Recent market conditions have led to a significant decline in silicon prices, impacting the company's profitability, which has seen a continuous drop in net profit over the past three years [16].

Core Viewpoint - The report by Shenwan Hongyuan highlights the significant cost advantages of the industrial silicon industry in Xinjiang, driven by abundant coal resources and low electricity costs, suggesting a focus on leading companies like Hoshine Silicon Industry [1][2] Group 1: Industrial Silicon - Xinjiang's coal-electric-silicon integrated industry layout enhances the cost advantages for industrial silicon production, with companies like Hoshine Silicon Industry leading the market [2] - Hoshine Silicon Industry is one of the largest and most complete companies in the silicon-based new materials sector, producing industrial silicon, organic silicon, and polysilicon, thus creating synergistic effects [2] - The company has a designed production capacity of 1.22 million tons per year for industrial silicon, with a projected production volume of 1.8714 million tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 38.11% [2] Group 2: Cost Advantages - The company maintains a cost advantage in industrial silicon production due to its self-sufficient power plants and integrated energy layout, which helps reduce production costs [3][5] - The average daily output of some electric arc furnaces has exceeded 70 tons, with the electricity consumption per ton of industrial silicon smelting dropping below 10,000 kWh [5] Group 3: Organic Silicon - The company has an annual production capacity of 1.73 million tons for organic silicon, leading the market with significant growth in its three main products: silicone rubber, silicone oil, and siloxane, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 16.31%, 56.66%, and 5.35% in 2024 [6] - Despite a slight decline in organic silicon product prices, the company benefits from its cost advantages in self-produced industrial silicon, ensuring that the net realizable value of its main organic silicon products remains above production costs [8] Group 4: Carbon Silicon - The company has successfully developed 12-inch conductive silicon carbide (SiC) crystals and is advancing processing technologies, positioning itself to capitalize on the growing demand in the power semiconductor industry [9] - The company plans to issue bonds to support its operations and maintain a strong financial structure, ensuring sufficient liquidity for future growth in industrial silicon, organic silicon, and silicon carbide businesses [10]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported 2024 performance in line with market expectations, while 1Q25 results were slightly below expectations due to industry downturn and price drops in industrial silicon and organic silicon [1] Group 1: 2024 Performance - The company achieved revenue of 26.69 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.6%, with earnings per share of 1.47 yuan, meeting market expectations [1] - In 4Q24, revenue was 6.32 billion yuan, with a net profit of 286 million yuan [1] Group 2: 1Q25 Performance - For 1Q25, the company reported revenue of 5.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3.5% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 260 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 50.8%, with earnings per share of 0.22 yuan, slightly below market expectations [1] Group 3: Industry Trends - The industrial silicon industry is expected to see supply growth slow down in 2025, with total production capacity increasing by 11% to 6.65 million tons in 2024 [2] - The average price of industrial silicon in 2024 was 13,000 yuan per ton, down 15.4% year-on-year, and the average price in 2025 to date is 11,000 yuan per ton, down 15.3% year-on-year [2] - The organic silicon industry is projected to see a recovery in supply-demand balance in 2025-26, with demand growth expected to be in the range of 5-10% [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has lowered its 2025 profit forecast by 31% to 1.94 billion yuan and introduced a 2026 forecast of 3.50 billion yuan [4] - The target price has been reduced by 10% to 65 yuan, corresponding to 40/22 times the price-to-earnings ratio for 2025/26, indicating a 22% upside potential from the current stock price [4]

Group 1: High Purity Quartz Sand Market - The domestic high purity quartz sand market price remained stable this week, unchanged from last week, with average prices of 65,000 CNY/ton for inner layer, 35,000 CNY/ton for middle layer, and 25,000 CNY/ton for outer layer quartz sand, while imported quartz sand averaged 105,000 CNY/ton [1] - Supply side: The market is relatively stable with domestic enterprises gradually resuming operations, leading to a slight increase in production capacity utilization and supply. Overseas operations are normal with no significant fluctuations [1] - Demand side: Downstream demand remains weak, with quartz crucible enterprises purchasing less and maintaining a wait-and-see attitude, resulting in general market transactions primarily driven by essential small-batch purchases [1] Group 2: Quartz Crucible Market - The domestic quartz crucible prices showed no fluctuations this week, remaining the same as last week, with average prices of 6,250 CNY for 28-inch, 7,500 CNY for 32-inch, and 8,750 CNY for 36-inch crucibles [1] - Supply side: There has been an increase in the operating rate of quartz crucible enterprises, with small factories resuming operations after maintenance, leading to a slight increase in overall market supply [1] - Demand side: Downstream demand is average, with weak production increase intentions in the silicon wafer and crystal pulling segments, resulting in minimal purchases as enterprises focus on consuming existing inventory [1] Group 3: Photovoltaic Glass Market - The main prices of domestic photovoltaic glass remained stable this week, unchanged from last week, with average prices of 12.50 CNY/square meter for 2.0mm glass and 20.50 CNY/square meter for 3.2mm glass [2] - Supply side: Domestic photovoltaic glass enterprises are optimistic about future market conditions, leading to a slight increase in production as terminal component production expectations rise [2] - Demand side: Terminal component procurement demand is steadily increasing, with market demand exceeding supply in the short term, resulting in a focus on inventory reduction for photovoltaic glass [2] Group 4: Market Outlook - High purity quartz sand market is expected to continue weak and stable operations with limited price drop potential as prices approach production costs for some enterprises [2] - The quartz crucible market may see downward price adjustments if imported sand prices decrease, as current market sentiment is bearish due to weak production schedules in the silicon wafer sector [2] - The photovoltaic glass market shows signs of improvement with significant increases in terminal component production, leading to a supply-demand imbalance and potential price increases if demand continues to rise [3]