Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the volatility of the U.S. government's tariff policies and their impact on market conditions, emphasizing the need for investors to adjust asset allocation amidst uncertainty [2][3]. Macroeconomic Analysis - The S&P 500 index reached a new high in July, with the top ten companies accounting for over 38% of the index, and a price-to-earnings ratio of 22, significantly above the 30-year average of 17 [2]. - Despite strong market performance, the labor market shows signs of weakness, with an average non-farm employment growth of only 135,000 over the past three months, and job openings and voluntary resignations below pre-pandemic levels [2]. Asset Allocation Strategies - Adjusting asset allocation is crucial due to the uncertainty in the stock market, driven by tariff policies affecting corporate cost structures and capital expenditures [3]. - Gold has risen by 26% this year, surpassing $3,300 per ounce in July, driven by inflation expectations and geopolitical risks, indicating that physical assets can provide a buffer in uncertain environments [3][4]. Importance of Bonds - Fixed income investments are becoming increasingly important, with Swiss Re's portfolio consisting of 85% fixed income assets, primarily government bonds, to match long-term liabilities [4]. - The ten-year U.S. Treasury yield is around 4.5%, but real returns are limited after accounting for a 2.5% inflation rate, making government bonds a stabilizing force during economic uncertainty [4]. Technology and AI Sector Trends - The Nasdaq index rebounded by 21.95% in Q2, largely due to the rise of AI-related stocks, which account for 45% of the U.S. stock market's total market capitalization [5]. - Some AI companies have valuations as high as 25 times sales, despite revenues below $2 billion, raising concerns about potential market bubbles and the inherent risks in the AI sector [5]. Global Diversification - The concentration of the U.S. stock market, with the top ten companies exceeding 38% of total market capitalization, makes it vulnerable to performance fluctuations of a few firms [6]. - The depreciation of the dollar by 11% in the first half of the year has led to better performance in international markets, highlighting the importance of global diversification [6]. Investment Approach for Individuals - Investors should categorize their portfolios into core and satellite assets, prioritizing stable investments like low-cost index funds, bonds, and REITs for core assets, while using satellite assets for potential excess returns [6]. - Controlling investment costs and maintaining a long-term perspective are essential strategies to navigate short-term market volatility [7].