上 市 公 司 美容护理 2025 年 08 月 22 日 上海家化 (600315) —— Q2 业绩超预期，新品&线上动能加速释放 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | | | | 市场数据： | 2025 年 08 月 21 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 23.40 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 26.87/13.67 | | 市净率 | 2.3 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 0.13 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 15,730 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,771.10/11,919.76 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 10.37 | | 资产负债率% | 33.84 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 672/672 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 08-21 09-21 10-21 11-21 12-21 01-21 02-21 03-21 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company reported its 2024 annual results and Q1 2025 results, which met market expectations. In 2024, total revenue was 5.679 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 13.93%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 833 million yuan, down 266.60% year-on-year. The decline was primarily due to strategic adjustments, low birth rates overseas, intensified competition in the baby and child product category, and reduced inventory by distributors affecting overseas revenue [7][8] - In Q1 2025, revenue was 1.704 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 10.59%, with a net profit of 217 million yuan, down 15.25% year-on-year [7][8] - The company launched an employee stock ownership plan to bind core personnel, with a target of turning a profit in 2025 and achieving a net profit growth rate of 10% in 2026-2027 [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts total revenue of 6.276 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 318 million yuan, with a PE ratio of 50 [6][7] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 57.6%, a decrease of 1.37 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was -14.67%, down 22.25 percentage points year-on-year [7][12] - The company expects to achieve net profits of 318 million yuan, 379 million yuan, and 464 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 50, 42, and 34 [7][8]