行 业 及 产 业 美容护理 2026 年 02 月 01 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 王盼 A0230523120001 wangpan@swsresearch.com 聂霜 A0230524120002 nieshuang@swsresearch.com 联系人 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 业绩预告彰显板块景气度，建议关注节前促销 看好 ——化妆品医美行业周报 20260201 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 本阶段化妆品医美板块表现弱于市场。2026 年 1 月 23 日至 2026 年 1 月 30 日期间， 申万美容护理指数下滑 3.8%，表现弱于市场。其中，申万化妆品指数下滑 3.6%，弱于 申万 A 指 1.9pct；申万个护用品指数下滑 4.6%，弱于申万 A 指数 3.0pct。 ⚫ 周观点：业绩预告彰显板块景气度 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Jahwa expects to achieve a net profit of between 240 million and 290 million yuan in 2025, marking a turnaround from losses to profits due to growth in core business, improved gross margins, and increased non-recurring income [1] Group 1 - In 2025, Shanghai Jahwa's strategic focus will be on core brands, brand building, online presence, and operational efficiency, which will drive the company's performance [1] - The company has successfully launched several billion-yuan products, enhancing the competitiveness of its core brands and accelerating brand momentum [1] - The CEO emphasized that in the online era, flagship products are crucial for establishing brand recognition and building a product matrix for long-term development [1] Group 2 - In the fourth quarter of 2025, Shanghai Jahwa established a Billion-Yuan Product Club to leverage brand resources and operational experience to create a matrix of blockbuster products [2] - The club aims to expand the billion-yuan product matrix through a complete incubation process to drive company growth [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 33.34 [1]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 240 to 290 million in 2025, marking a turnaround from losses in the previous year. 2025 is viewed as a critical year for the company's strategic reform, focusing on core brands, brand building, online presence, and efficiency [1][6]. - The company has successfully developed three major products that have generated over RMB 100 million in sales each, demonstrating the effectiveness of its strategy combining category breakthroughs, major product cultivation, and marketing innovation [1][8]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, now projecting revenues of RMB 6.407 billion, RMB 7.379 billion, and RMB 8.219 billion respectively, reflecting increases of 12.84%, 15.16%, and 11.38% [10]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to have a net profit of RMB 273.22 million in 2025, with an expected EPS of RMB 0.41. This is a significant recovery from a loss of RMB 833.09 million in 2024 [5][10]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from -12.45% in 2024 to 3.93% in 2025, indicating a positive trend in profitability [5][10]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from -17.32 in 2024 to 52.80 in 2025, reflecting a shift towards profitability [5][10]. Market Performance - The company's stock closed at RMB 21.46 as of January 28, with a market capitalization of RMB 14.426 billion. The stock has traded within a range of RMB 15.60 to RMB 28.92 over the past 52 weeks [2]. - The company has seen significant growth in its online sales channels, with notable performances on platforms like Douyin and Taobao, indicating strong brand momentum [7][9].

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Jahwa is expected to achieve a net profit of between 240 million to 290 million yuan for the year 2025, marking a turnaround from losses in the previous year, driven by growth in core business, improved gross margins, and increased non-recurring income [1] Group 1: Strategic Focus and Brand Development - 2025 is a critical year for Shanghai Jahwa's strategic reform, emphasizing "focusing on core brands, brand building, online presence, and efficiency," which has successfully driven a brand-driven growth model [1] - The company has launched several billion-yuan products and potential new products that have significantly enhanced the competitiveness of core brands and accelerated brand momentum [1][2] - The establishment of a billion-yuan product club in Q4 2025 aims to leverage brand resources and operational experience to create a matrix of blockbuster products [2] Group 2: Product Innovation and Market Response - Several new products have shown strong potential to become billion-yuan products, including the Six God refreshing fragrance shower gel and the second-generation Yuze dry-sensitive cream, which have successfully targeted young consumers [3] - The launch of the first high-concentration essence oil by the Baicaoji brand has topped sales charts on major e-commerce platforms, demonstrating the company's growing capability in product incubation [3][4] Group 3: Research and Development Enhancements - Shanghai Jahwa is committed to deepening research and development, focusing on skincare technology and raw material innovation, with the opening of the "Shanghai Jahwa Innovation Center - Synthetic Biology" in March 2025 [4] - The company has registered multiple new cosmetic raw materials and launched the first skin glycation level quantification and imaging device in the industry, filling a significant gap in non-invasive skin testing [4] Group 4: Efficiency and Supply Chain Innovations - The company has initiated an e-commerce supply chain innovation project to explore new paths for direct e-commerce factory dispatch, significantly shortening the distribution chain and enhancing efficiency [5] - In 2026, the company plans to continue its growth trajectory by focusing on a clear combination of "brand - blockbuster products - channels," with key brands like Yuze, Six God, and Baicaoji driving growth [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report rates the cosmetics and medical beauty industry as "Overweight" for 2025, indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [2][11]. Core Insights - The demand side of the cosmetics and medical beauty sector is expected to accelerate, with retail sales of cosmetics projected to reach 465.3 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, surpassing the overall retail growth by 1.4 percentage points [3]. - The performance of Hong Kong-listed beauty companies is strong, with significant growth in GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) through platforms like Douyin, particularly during promotional events like Double Eleven [3]. - The A-share market shows a mixed performance, with companies like Ruoyuchen and Shanghai Jahwa experiencing substantial improvements in their earnings [3]. - The e-commerce operation sector is rebounding, with companies like Ruoyuchen and Yiwang Yichuang expected to see profit growth exceeding 50% in 2025 [3]. - The medical beauty segment is anticipated to face slight fatigue due to macroeconomic factors, but new product launches are expected to stimulate consumer interest in 2026 [3]. Summary by Sections Cosmetics Sector - Retail sales of cosmetics are projected to grow by 5.1% in 2025, with Q4 growth reaching 9.9% [3]. - Key companies such as Shiseido and Lin Qingxuan are expected to see significant GMV growth, with Lin Qingxuan projected to achieve triple-digit growth [3]. - Investment recommendations include companies with strong channel and brand matrices like Maogeping, Shiseido, and Lin Qingxuan, as well as those with improving earnings like Porlaia and Marubi [3]. Medical Beauty Sector - The medical beauty sector is expected to be impacted by macroeconomic conditions, with companies like Aimeike facing challenges [3]. - Recommendations focus on companies with strong R&D capabilities and broad product pipelines, such as Aimeike and Langzi [3]. E-commerce and Operations - The e-commerce operation sector is recovering, with companies like Ruoyuchen and Qingmu Technology expected to see significant profit growth [3]. - The report highlights the importance of self-operated brands and the potential for high growth in this segment [3]. Key Company Valuations - The report provides a valuation table for key companies, indicating a "Buy" rating for several firms including Porlaia, Maogeping, and Shiseido, with projected PE ratios reflecting growth expectations [5].

Summary of Shanghai Jahwa Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shanghai Jahwa - **Key Brands**: Yuze, Baicaojie, Liushen Industry Insights - **E-commerce Growth**: Significant growth in online channels, particularly on Douyin, with GMV for Yuze, Baicaojie, and Liushen brands exceeding 50% growth in Q4 2025 [2][3] - **Market Position**: Core platforms like Tmall and Douyin outperformed overall market growth, with strong performance on platforms like JD and Vipshop [3] Core Business Strategies - **Focus on Core Brands**: In 2026, Shanghai Jahwa will concentrate on core brands and product innovation, aiming to add 1 to 5 new billion-yuan products [2][3] - **Product Development**: Introduction of new products such as Baicaojie Xian Cao Oil and Xian Cao Mud, and upgrading Liushen mosquito repellent to version 3.0 [2][3] - **Expansion into New Categories**: Plans to enter the baby and child product category [2][4] Product Highlights - **Baicaojie Xian Cao Oil**: Positioned as a key product for 2026, featuring traditional Chinese medicine ingredients like ginseng and reishi, targeting anti-aging and moisturizing effects [2][5] - **Yuze Brand Focus**: Continued emphasis on dry-sensitive and oil-sensitive creams, with new product launches including SPF 50 sunscreen and artemisinin-based essence [2][4][7] - **Liushen Brand Goals**: Aiming for single-digit growth offline while expecting higher growth online, with a focus on the mosquito repellent product line [3][8] Marketing and Sales Strategies - **Influencer Marketing**: Yuze plans to increase the proportion of influencer marketing, expanding from top-tier to mid-tier influencers to enhance brand visibility [8] - **Sales Performance**: Strong performance during the 2025 Double Eleven shopping festival, with confidence in meeting revenue and profit guidance for 2026 [3][9] Financial and Operational Efficiency - **Cost Management**: Strategies to improve profit margins through revenue growth, operational cost sharing, and internalizing content marketing teams to optimize channel rates [3][10] - **Brand Profitability**: Focus on enhancing profitability for core beauty brands through scale effects and efficiency improvements [10] Other Notable Brands - **Gao Fu and Others**: Notable improvements in Gao Fu's online operations, attracting younger consumers, while brands like Shuang Mei showed significant growth [9] - **Product Upgrades**: Smaller brands like Meijiajing and Qichu are also undergoing product upgrades and new launches to adapt to market trends [9] Conclusion Shanghai Jahwa is strategically positioned for growth in 2026, focusing on core brands, innovative product development, and enhanced marketing strategies to capture market share and improve profitability across its diverse brand portfolio.

Core Insights - The Chinese beauty industry is at a critical juncture, transitioning from rapid growth driven by channels and traffic to a focus on brand value and operational excellence [1] - Recent financial reports from leading domestic beauty companies reveal a divide: some are struggling with transformation pains, while others are rebounding due to strong brand value [1] Group 1: Performance Challenges - Beitaini reported a revenue of 3.464 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 13.78%, with a net profit of 272 million yuan, down 34.45% [2] - In Q3, Beitaini's revenue was 1.092 billion yuan, a decline of 9.95%, but net profit increased by 136.55% to 25.22 million yuan due to cost-cutting and a shift to high-quality growth [3] - Beitaini's operating costs decreased by 15.75% to 889 million yuan, while sales expenses were 1.838 billion yuan, down 8.55% [6] - Furuida's revenue for the first three quarters was 2.597 billion yuan, down 7.34%, with a net profit of 142 million yuan, a decrease of 17.19% [7] - The brand Yailabo's revenue fell by 28.93% in Q3, indicating a significant decline from its peak performance in 2023 [11] Group 2: Successful Turnarounds - Shanghai Jahwa achieved a revenue of 4.961 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a 10.8% increase, with net profit soaring by 149.1% to 405 million yuan [12] - The company reported a Q3 revenue of 1.482 billion yuan, up 28.3%, reversing a previous decline [12] - The turnaround is attributed to a strategic focus on core brands and effective brand activation under new CEO Lin Xiaohai, emphasizing brand value as a growth strategy [15][18] Group 3: Industry Trends - The beauty industry is shifting towards a focus on brand value and ecosystem building, moving away from reliance on external factors like channels and marketing [19][23] - New brands face challenges due to the fragmentation of channels and rising costs, leading to a need for deeper brand connections with consumers [19][21] - Established brands like Shanghai Jahwa demonstrate resilience through strong brand recognition and emotional connections with consumers, allowing for rapid recovery when strategic adjustments are made [22] - The industry must prioritize building a multi-brand ecosystem and sustainable financial practices, as seen in Beitaini's recent focus on profitability [24]

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant increase in A-share indices, with the ChiNext Index rising over 8% and the CSI 100 increasing by 3.57% in the last week [2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) injected a total of 198.1 billion yuan into the market, maintaining liquidity stability with the DR007 rate around 1.43% [2] - The report anticipates a stable and flexible policy environment in the second half of the year, focusing on achieving economic and social development goals amidst geopolitical uncertainties [2][24] Group 2 - Shanghai Jahwa's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 4.961 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.83%, with a net profit of 405 million yuan, up 149.12% [10] - The company has successfully upgraded its brand and product lines, leading to significant sales growth in its beauty and personal care segments [10] - The forecast for Shanghai Jahwa's revenue for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 6.316 billion, 7.010 billion, and 7.753 billion yuan, with net profits of 420 million, 560 million, and 690 million yuan respectively [10] Group 3 - Hengli Petrochemical reported a revenue of 157.384 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 11.46% year-on-year, but a net profit of 5.023 billion yuan, showing a slight decline of 1.61% [11] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in the PTA market, with a projected net profit of 7 billion, 10.1 billion, and 13 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [11][17] - The report emphasizes the potential for industry improvement as PTA production capacity stabilizes and demand continues to grow [11][17] Group 4 - The global sovereign debt market reached a total outstanding amount of 78.97 trillion USD as of October 16, 2025, with the US, Japan, and China accounting for nearly 60% of the market [9][38] - The issuance of sovereign debt has seen significant growth, particularly after the COVID-19 pandemic, with emerging markets like Argentina becoming key issuers [9][39] - The average turnover rate for sovereign debt remains between 1.00% and 2.50%, indicating a stable trading environment [9][39]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Jahwa has shown signs of recovery in its financial performance for Q3 2025, with significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit after facing challenges in previous years [2][3]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.961 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.8% [2]. - Net profit reached 405 million yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 149.1% [2]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was 231 million yuan, up 92.4% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 alone, revenue grew by 28.3% compared to the same quarter last year, indicating a significant acceleration in growth compared to the first half of the year [2]. Operational Improvements - The company has made notable progress in its operational quality, with accounts receivable decreasing by 21.4% and inventory down by 18.2% year-on-year [2]. - Operating cash flow saw a remarkable increase of 172.8% year-on-year, highlighting effective management of working capital [2]. Strategic Adjustments - In June 2024, the company underwent a management change, with the new chairman Lin Xiaohai introducing a "four focuses" strategy aimed at core brands, brand building, online channels, and operational efficiency [3]. - The early results of this strategic adjustment are reflected in the improved performance in Q3 [3]. Product Development - The company has successfully developed several billion-yuan products, including key items like the Six God Mosquito Repellent and Yuze Barrier Repair Cream, which have performed well in their respective market segments [4]. Historical Context - Shanghai Jahwa, established in 1898 and listed in 2001, is recognized as the first publicly traded company in China's cosmetics industry, with over 35 years of research and development experience [4]. Market Challenges - Despite the positive trends, analysts note that maintaining sustainable growth in a competitive market remains a significant challenge for the company [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in profitability, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit for Q3 2025 [1][2] - The company is focusing on brand upgrades and product line expansion, leading to increased sales and average selling prices [3] - The strategy of concentrating on core products has resulted in the successful launch of several billion-yuan products [4] - Marketing innovations have been emphasized, with increased brand visibility and endorsements from celebrities [5] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 4.961 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.83%, and a net profit of 405 million yuan, up 149.12% [1] - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 62.81%, an increase of 3.39 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin rose to 8.17%, up 4.54 percentage points [2] - The company expects revenues of 6.316 billion yuan, 7.010 billion yuan, and 7.753 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 420 million yuan, 564 million yuan, and 690 million yuan [5] Brand Strategy - The company is implementing a tiered brand strategy, focusing on product innovation and youth-oriented reform [3] - The first-tier brand, Six God, is expanding its core categories, while the second-tier brand, Baicaoji, is collaborating with academic institutions for product development [3] Marketing and Innovation - The company has increased its marketing investments, resulting in a significant rise in brand exposure, with 5.8 billion impressions in Q3 2025, a 50% increase year-on-year [5] - New product launches include innovative items such as the Six God refreshing fragrance shower gel and Baicaoji's revolutionary Xian Cao oil [4]