Group 1 - The upcoming threat of a 30% tariff on all EU goods by the US is causing significant pressure on EU member states, particularly France, which heavily relies on exports to the US in sectors like luxury goods, aerospace, and alcoholic beverages [1] - The French cognac industry is facing challenges after experiencing trade retaliation from China, with a minimum export price agreement reached for 34 European brandy producers, including LVMH and Rémy Cointreau [1][2] - France's exports of wine to the US are projected to reach €2.4 billion in 2024, while spirits exports are expected to be €1.5 billion, highlighting the critical dependence of the French wine and spirits industry on the US market [2] Group 2 - Since 2022, the global cognac industry has seen a nearly 40% decline in sales, exacerbated by a 10% tariff imposed by the US on European imports in April [3] - The chairman of LVMH has urged French lawmakers to recognize the economic reality and push for an agreement with the US, warning of potential job losses in the cognac-producing region of Charente, which employs around 80,000 people [3] - The French wine industry is actively seeking to diversify its markets to mitigate losses from the US, with local governments being called upon to provide support for market diversification efforts [3]

Group 1 - The EU is negotiating with the US to finalize a preliminary trade agreement before August 1 to avoid higher tariffs on key industries [1][3] - The focus of the negotiations includes excluding high-value export goods such as aircraft, wine, and spirits from the 10% tariff [1][3] - The EU aims to protect its core industries and gain leverage in longer-term negotiations while seeking a buffer period for local industries [1][3] Group 2 - The EU's strategy is a response to the Trump administration's announcement of tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on various goods, while maintaining a 10% baseline tariff for the EU [3][4] - The aviation industry is crucial for the EU, involving multiple countries like Germany, France, and Spain, and higher tariffs could harm profitability and high-skilled jobs [3][4] - Wine and spirits are significant exports for countries like France and Italy, and increased tariffs could lead to a loss of market share to competitors like Australia and Chile [3][4] Group 3 - Even if a preliminary agreement is reached, the EU's challenges remain due to the unpredictable nature of Trump's trade policies [4][5] - The EU's concessions reveal its passive stance in negotiations, lacking a unified diplomatic strategy and facing internal pressures [4][5] - The future of negotiations hinges on whether the EU will make concessions in certain industries for overall stability and whether the US will impose additional structural demands post-agreement [4][5]