前两天，特朗普点名了欧洲的八个国家，宣布要对他们加征关税，外交部迅速做出了回应。然而，没想 到的是，外交部刚刚发声，特朗普便立刻砸下关税重拳，威胁要对法国加征200%的关税。那么，法国 为何成了靶子？外交部又是如何回应的？面对这一关税风波，欧洲又该如何应对呢？ 格陵兰岛并不是 关键，真正的目的在于关税作为特朗普的交易语言。要说特朗普这次的关税决策是心血来潮，恐怕就低 估了他的心机。实际上，他一直没有把这当作单纯的经济政策，而是更像是一场交易外交。首先，看看 目标国，这八个国家全是西欧的发达国家，一个比一个重要。而理由，特朗普也说得很直接：你们不支 持我买格陵兰岛，那就让你们的出口企业受点苦。这种逻辑看起来有些让人摸不着头脑，但实际上并不 意外，特朗普早就将关税当作谈判桌上的大棒，不听话的就要受罚。 更糟糕的是，法国本身经济也并不算强势。根据2025年上半年的数据，法国的贸易逆差已经突破430亿 欧元，外贸结构脆弱不堪。如果此时再遭遇特朗普这一记关税重击，法国的经济就真的要危险了。马克 龙当然不干，立刻做出了强烈反应：我们不能接受。但问题是，这不仅仅是法国能独自承担的事情。这 正是特朗普高明之处——他挑的正是最 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent tariff threats from Trump against France and other European countries are seen as a strategic move in "transactional diplomacy," rather than a conventional economic policy [3][5][7]. Group 1: Tariff Threats and Strategic Implications - Trump has targeted eight European countries with tariffs, specifically threatening a 200% tariff on French goods, as a form of punishment for not complying with U.S. demands regarding Greenland [1][9]. - The tariffs are not merely economic measures but are intended to exert political pressure on allies, showcasing a shift from traditional trade negotiations to coercive tactics [5][15]. - France's participation in military exercises in Greenland and its refusal to join the "Peace Committee" have made it a primary target for these tariffs, highlighting the intertwining of economic and geopolitical strategies [7][9]. Group 2: European Response and Internal Divisions - The European Union is planning an emergency summit to discuss countermeasures, including the potential reactivation of tariffs on $930 billion worth of U.S. goods and the use of "anti-coercion tools" [11][13]. - There are significant internal divisions within the EU regarding how to respond, with different countries prioritizing their own economic interests, such as Germany's concern over automotive exports and Eastern European nations' fears about security cooperation [13][15]. - The situation poses a test of EU unity and its ability to respond to U.S. unilateral actions, with the risk that failure to act could undermine the EU's strategic autonomy [15][17]. Group 3: Long-term Consequences and Future Outlook - The current tariff situation is viewed as a broader geopolitical pressure test, where Europe's response will determine its future strategic voice and economic stability [15][17]. - If the EU does not respond effectively, it may set a precedent for further U.S. economic coercion, potentially affecting various sectors across Europe, including wine, automotive, and agricultural products [17][18]. - The unfolding events suggest that France may not be the last country to face such tariffs, indicating a potential escalation in U.S. trade tactics under Trump's administration [17][18].

Core Insights - LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton reported a revenue of €58.1 billion for the first nine months of 2025, showing resilience amid geopolitical and economic disruptions [1] - The company experienced a 1% organic growth in the third quarter, with improvements across all business groups and regions, except for Europe where tourist spending declined [1][2] Revenue Performance - **Overall Revenue**: Total revenue for the first nine months of 2025 was €58.1 billion, a decrease of 4% compared to the same period in 2024 [2] - **Wines & Spirits**: Revenue decreased by 7% to €3.9 billion, with a slight organic growth of 1% in Q3 [2][4] - **Fashion & Leather Goods**: Revenue fell by 8% to €27.6 billion, with a decline of 2% in Q3 [2][5] - **Perfumes & Cosmetics**: Revenue remained stable at €6.0 billion, with a 2% organic growth in Q3 [2][6] - **Watches & Jewelry**: Revenue decreased by 2% to €7.4 billion, with a 2% organic growth in Q3 [2][7] - **Selective Retailing**: Revenue grew to €12.6 billion, with a 7% organic growth in Q3 [2][8] Regional Performance - **Europe and the United States**: Stable performance with solid local demand, but Europe faced a decline in tourist spending due to currency fluctuations [1] - **Japan**: Experienced a decline compared to 2024, which had benefitted from increased tourist spending [1] - **Rest of Asia**: Notable improvement in trends compared to 2024 [1] Business Group Highlights - **Wines & Spirits**: Slight organic growth in Q3, with improved performance in champagne and wines [4] - **Fashion & Leather Goods**: Resilience shown through local customer engagement and successful product launches, including La Beauté Louis Vuitton [5] - **Perfumes & Cosmetics**: Continued innovation with successful product launches, maintaining stable revenue [6] - **Watches & Jewelry**: Organic growth driven by successful product lines and exhibitions [7] - **Selective Retailing**: Strong performance from Sephora and improved trends in DFS [8] Outlook - LVMH remains confident in its strategy to enhance brand desirability and maintain its global leadership position in luxury goods despite economic uncertainties [9]

Group 1 - The upcoming threat of a 30% tariff on all EU goods by the US is causing significant pressure on EU member states, particularly France, which heavily relies on exports to the US in sectors like luxury goods, aerospace, and alcoholic beverages [1] - The French cognac industry is facing challenges after experiencing trade retaliation from China, with a minimum export price agreement reached for 34 European brandy producers, including LVMH and Rémy Cointreau [1][2] - France's exports of wine to the US are projected to reach €2.4 billion in 2024, while spirits exports are expected to be €1.5 billion, highlighting the critical dependence of the French wine and spirits industry on the US market [2] Group 2 - Since 2022, the global cognac industry has seen a nearly 40% decline in sales, exacerbated by a 10% tariff imposed by the US on European imports in April [3] - The chairman of LVMH has urged French lawmakers to recognize the economic reality and push for an agreement with the US, warning of potential job losses in the cognac-producing region of Charente, which employs around 80,000 people [3] - The French wine industry is actively seeking to diversify its markets to mitigate losses from the US, with local governments being called upon to provide support for market diversification efforts [3]

Group 1 - The EU is negotiating with the US to finalize a preliminary trade agreement before August 1 to avoid higher tariffs on key industries [1][3] - The focus of the negotiations includes excluding high-value export goods such as aircraft, wine, and spirits from the 10% tariff [1][3] - The EU aims to protect its core industries and gain leverage in longer-term negotiations while seeking a buffer period for local industries [1][3] Group 2 - The EU's strategy is a response to the Trump administration's announcement of tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on various goods, while maintaining a 10% baseline tariff for the EU [3][4] - The aviation industry is crucial for the EU, involving multiple countries like Germany, France, and Spain, and higher tariffs could harm profitability and high-skilled jobs [3][4] - Wine and spirits are significant exports for countries like France and Italy, and increased tariffs could lead to a loss of market share to competitors like Australia and Chile [3][4] Group 3 - Even if a preliminary agreement is reached, the EU's challenges remain due to the unpredictable nature of Trump's trade policies [4][5] - The EU's concessions reveal its passive stance in negotiations, lacking a unified diplomatic strategy and facing internal pressures [4][5] - The future of negotiations hinges on whether the EU will make concessions in certain industries for overall stability and whether the US will impose additional structural demands post-agreement [4][5]

Group 1 - LVMH's Moët Hennessy plans to cut approximately 1,200 jobs, representing over 10% of its total workforce, as part of a restructuring effort to return to 2019 staffing levels [2] - Moët Hennessy's revenue for 2024 is projected to decline by 11% year-on-year, with a further 8% drop in organic sales for Q1 2025, primarily due to weak demand in China and the US [2] - The Chinese market is facing increased import costs due to anti-dumping policies, with a guarantee ratio of 39%, while the US market is experiencing potential tariff risks, adding to business uncertainties [2] Group 2 - Recent management changes include Jean-Jacques Guiony becoming CEO of Moët Hennessy and Alexandre Arnault being appointed as Deputy CEO, aiming to leverage financial and brand operational experience to reverse the downturn [3] - Despite short-term operational pressures, Moët Hennessy continues to innovate, such as investing in the non-alcoholic sparkling wine brand French Bloom and localizing production in China to better meet market demands [3] - The layoffs reflect not only the challenges of a single business line but also the broader struggle of luxury brands to balance operational efficiency with maintaining high-end brand prestige after rapid expansion [3]