Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In July 2024, the lithium ore market was in a supply - demand game. Holders were reluctant to sell, and lithium salt plants were cautious in purchasing. Lithium ore prices were still dominated by lithium carbonate demand [4]. - In July, domestic lithium carbonate production increased slightly month - on - month. Import volume was expected to be around 18,000 tons. Downstream production increased slightly, with more long - term contracts and customer - supplied orders, and weak spot demand [4]. - Lithium ore prices rose significantly, and the industry's overall profit increased. By July 31, SMM inventory decreased, but remained at a high level. Futures inventory declined sharply [4][6]. - In July, the prices of domestic industrial and battery - grade lithium carbonate increased significantly. The futures price was mainly affected by policies, and the spot price followed but with limited supply - demand support [6]. - In August, the lithium carbonate market is expected to maintain a double - increase trend, but the price may be under pressure. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate between 65,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [7]. - In July, the domestic cobalt market fluctuated upward. The supply of cobalt salts decreased, and the demand was weak. The market still had room for decline [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Summary - As of July 31, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate futures contract 2509 was 68,920 yuan/ton, with a 9.67% increase in July. The trading volume and open interest changed, and the warehouse receipt volume decreased. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased significantly compared to the previous month [2]. Price Overview - As of July 28, the average market price of domestic industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000 yuan/ton, a 21.67% increase from the previous month. The average market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 74,000 yuan/ton, a 21.31% increase from the previous month [6]. - In July, the domestic cobalt market fluctuated upward. The price of cobalt products increased. The international cobalt price fluctuated downward, and the domestic production cost was adjusted accordingly [7]. Market Outlook - The lithium carbonate market is expected to continue to show a weak and volatile pattern in the short term, with prices fluctuating between 63,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton. The price of lithium hydroxide is expected to move slightly higher in August, with a fluctuation range of 1,000 - 5,000 yuan/ton [17]. - The short - term market of cobalt salts may be slightly stronger. The price of cobalt sulfate is expected to rise slightly, with a quotation range of 50,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and the price of cobalt chloride is expected to be between 62,500 - 64,000 yuan/ton. The price of tricobalt tetroxide is expected to rise slightly, with a quotation range of 210,000 - 225,000 yuan/ton, and the price of cobalt oxide is expected to be between 190,000 - 205,000 yuan/ton [17][18]. Supply - side Situation - In July, domestic lithium carbonate production was about 84,882 tons, a 4.84% month - on - month increase, and the operating rate increased by 5.74%. Lithium hydroxide production was about 22,800 tons, a 2.35% month - on - month decrease, and the operating rate decreased by 2.34% [41]. China's Production Cost and Profit - As of July 28, the average market price of imported lithium spodumene ore was 673 yuan/ton degree, the average market price of African SC5% was 530 US dollars/ton, and the average market price of Australian 6% lithium spodumene CIF was 850 US dollars/ton. The cost of cobalt sulfate continued to be under pressure, and the cost of tricobalt tetroxide fluctuated [53]. Import - Export - In June 2025, the total import volume of lithium carbonate was 17,697.624 tons, mainly from Chile and imported through Shanghai. The export volume was 286.735 tons, mainly to Australia and exported from Hebei Province [55]. - In June 2025, the import volume of lithium hydroxide was 1,482.343 tons, mainly from Indonesia and China, and imported through Jiangsu and Sichuan Provinces. The export volume was 6,260.074 tons, mainly to South Korea and Japan, and exported from Jiangxi, Guangxi, and Sichuan Provinces [55]. - In June 2025, the import volume of tricobalt tetroxide was 0.004 tons, a 99.87% year - on - year decrease. The export volume was 161.732 tons, a 47.56% year - on - year decrease and a 51.62% month - on - month decrease [55][56]. Consumption - In June, China's new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.268 million and 1.329 million respectively. Policy support was still expected [75]. - In June 2025, China's total lithium battery installed capacity was 58.2 GWh, a 35.98% year - on - year increase and a 1.93% month - on - month increase. LFP battery installed capacity accounted for 81.44%, and NCM battery installed capacity accounted for 18.38% [79]. - In July 2025, China's lithium iron phosphate production was 310,000 tons, a 5.91% month - on - month increase, and the production of ternary materials was 71,300 tons, a 5.94% month - on - month increase [82]. - In July 2025, China's ternary precursor production was 68,900 tons, a 0.06% month - on - month increase and a 0.14% year - on - year increase [104]. Inventory - According to the latest SMM statistics, the spot inventory was 141,700 tons, including 52,000 tons in smelters, 45,900 tons in downstream enterprises, and 43,900 tons in other inventories [120].