Report Overview - Report Title: Supply and Demand Improve, but the Actual Magnitude is Limited. Lithium Carbonate is Difficult to Maintain Long - Term and Significant Increases - Lithium Carbonate Industry Chain Weekly Data Report [1] - Report Date: August 20, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shutdown of the Jianxiawo Mine has brought lithium carbonate prices to a new level, and the marginal change from passive inventory accumulation to passive inventory depletion in lithium carbonate supply and demand has significantly improved the market expectations in the first half of the year, with the price center expected to rise. However, the expected annual inventory depletion of 1 - 2 million tons after the shutdown is limited compared to the current market inventory of 14 million tons. If the market continues to rise significantly, it may open the profit window for imported lithium mines such as those from Australia and Africa, quickly making up for the supply reduction caused by the shutdown of the Jianxiawo Mine and attracting hedging funds, so it may experience short - term significant increases but is difficult to maintain in the long term [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Report Summary 3.1.1 Fundamental Overview - Lithium Ore: The price of spodumene has risen rapidly, leading the increase in ore prices. Affected by administrative orders in Jiangxi and Qinghai, the operating rates of lithium mica and salt lake sectors have significantly declined in July. After the confirmation of the shutdown of Jianxiawo, the market demand for lithium mica has significantly decreased, and the price of spodumene, as an alternative, has led the increase in the lithium ore market. Attention should be paid to the quantity of imported spodumene supplemented due to high prices [3]. - Lithium Salt: It has continued to take advantage of the situation, and the upper integer price levels may be the targets of long - positions. The news of the shutdown of Jianxiawo last week pushed the lithium carbonate LC futures contract to the price range of 80,000 yuan. The marginal reduction may change the domestic lithium carbonate supply - demand from passive inventory accumulation to passive inventory depletion. The market long - positions continue to take advantage of the market rumors of the shutdown of the salt lake sector to drive up prices, with the upper levels of 90,000 and 100,000 yuan being the next targets of long - positions. However, with a high inventory of 14 million tons, it is difficult for lithium carbonate to maintain high prices in the long term [3]. - Cathode Materials and Lithium Batteries: The impact of anti - involution is gradually fading. The impact of anti - involution focused on the new energy vehicle market is gradually fading. Recently, lithium carbonate has been indirectly affected by the sentiment of industries such as photovoltaics, with limited substantial impact [3]. 3.1.2 Market Summary - The shutdown of the Jianxiawo Mine has brought lithium carbonate prices to a new level. The marginal change in supply and demand has improved market expectations, but the expected inventory depletion is limited compared to the current inventory. If the market rises significantly, it may attract imported lithium mines and hedging funds, making it difficult to maintain long - term high prices [4]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet 3.2.1 Lithium Carbonate Balance Sheet - Slowing Inventory Accumulation - From July 2024 to July 2025, the supply, demand, import, export, inventory change, and cumulative balance of lithium carbonate showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the supply was 81,530 tons, demand was 96,275 tons, import was 18,000 tons, export was 573 tons, inventory change was 2,682 tons, and the cumulative balance was 164,565 tons [8]. 3.2.2 Lithium Hydroxide Balance Sheet - From August 2024 to July 2025, the supply, demand, import, export, inventory change, and cumulative balance of lithium hydroxide also showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the supply was 25,170 tons, demand was 22,969 tons, import was 750 tons, export was 6,100 tons, inventory change was - 3,149 tons, and the cumulative balance was 25,163 tons [12]. 3.3 Upstream Ore Supply, Demand, and Price 3.3.1 Spodumene Import - From December 2023 to June 2025, the import volume and average import price of lithium concentrate from different countries (Australia, Brazil, etc.) showed different trends. For example, in June 2025, the total import volume was 427,626 tons, with 255,506 tons from Australia and 39,811 tons from Brazil, and the average import price was 639 US dollars per ton [19]. 3.3.2 Chinese Lithium Ore - Spodumene Quotation Leading the Increase - From December 2023 to July 2025, the production of sample lithium mica mines and spodumene mines showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the production of lithium mica was 16,100 tons with a month - on - month decrease of 4.17%, and the production of spodumene was 6,500 tons with a month - on - month increase of 0.78% [24]. 3.4 Lithium Salt Supply, Demand, and Price 3.4.1 Lithium Salt Spot and Futures Prices - Obvious Impact of Lithium Ore Shutdown - From July 1, 2025, to August 15, 2025, the prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and the price differences between them showed different trends. For example, on August 15, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 84,000 yuan, industrial - grade was 83,000 yuan, battery - grade lithium hydroxide was 77,875 yuan, the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 1,000 yuan, and the difference between lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide was 6,125 yuan [27]. 3.4.2 Production Cost and Profit - Spodumene Expected to Supplement Market Gap - From July 9, 2025, to August 15, 2025, the production costs and profits of lithium carbonate produced from spodumene, low - grade mica, and high - grade mica showed different trends. For example, on August 15, 2025, the production cost of lithium carbonate from spodumene was 73,053 yuan per ton, with a profit of 10,947 yuan; the production cost from low - grade mica was 91,674 yuan per ton, with a loss of 7,674 yuan; and the production cost from high - grade mica was 53,983 yuan per ton, with a profit of 30,017 yuan [41]. 3.4.3 Lithium Carbonate Production - From July 2023 to July 2025, the weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the total monthly production was 81,530 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26% and a month - on - month increase of 4% [50]. 3.4.4 Operating Rate - Obvious Decline in Operating Rates of Mica and Salt Lake Sectors in July - From July 2022 to July 2025, the operating rates of lithium salt, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide showed different trends. The operating rates of lithium carbonate production from different raw materials (spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake) also showed different trends [52][55]. 3.4.5 Lithium Carbonate Monthly Import Volume - From December 2021 to June 2025, the total import volume of lithium carbonate and the import volumes from Argentina and Chile showed different trends. For example, in June 2025, the total import volume was 17,698 tons, with 5,094 tons from Argentina and 11,853 tons from Chile [60]. 3.4.6 Lithium Carbonate Inventory - Attention Needed on the Sustainability of Inventory Depletion - From December 2022 to July 2025, the inventory of lithium carbonate in downstream and smelting plants, weekly inventory, and the number of registered futures warehouse receipts showed different trends [62][63][65]. 3.5 Lithium Salt Downstream Production and Demand 3.5.1 Lithium Iron Phosphate - Slowing Production Growth - From November 2019 to July 2025, the production and operating rate of lithium iron phosphate showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the production was 290,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.00% and a month - on - month increase of 1.86%, and the operating rate was 57.00% [70]. 3.5.2 Ternary Materials Production and Operating Rate - From December 2023 to July 2025, the production and operating rate of ternary materials showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the production was 68,640 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.70% and a month - on - month increase of 5.80% [75]. 3.5.3 Ternary Materials Import and Export Volume - From December 2021 to June 2025, the import, export, and net import volumes of ternary materials showed different trends. For example, in June 2025, the import volume was 5,349 tons, the export volume was 10,636 tons, and the net import volume was - 5,287 tons [80]. 3.5.4 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - From November 2021 to July 2025, the production of pure - electric vehicles, plug - in hybrid vehicles, and the inventory warning index of automobile dealers showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the production of pure - electric vehicles was 807,000, the production of plug - in hybrid vehicles was 436,000, and the inventory warning index was 57.2 [81].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In July 2024, the lithium ore market was in a supply - demand game. Holders were reluctant to sell, and lithium salt plants were cautious in purchasing. Lithium ore prices were still dominated by lithium carbonate demand [4]. - In July, domestic lithium carbonate production increased slightly month - on - month. Import volume was expected to be around 18,000 tons. Downstream production increased slightly, with more long - term contracts and customer - supplied orders, and weak spot demand [4]. - Lithium ore prices rose significantly, and the industry's overall profit increased. By July 31, SMM inventory decreased, but remained at a high level. Futures inventory declined sharply [4][6]. - In July, the prices of domestic industrial and battery - grade lithium carbonate increased significantly. The futures price was mainly affected by policies, and the spot price followed but with limited supply - demand support [6]. - In August, the lithium carbonate market is expected to maintain a double - increase trend, but the price may be under pressure. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate between 65,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [7]. - In July, the domestic cobalt market fluctuated upward. The supply of cobalt salts decreased, and the demand was weak. The market still had room for decline [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Summary - As of July 31, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate futures contract 2509 was 68,920 yuan/ton, with a 9.67% increase in July. The trading volume and open interest changed, and the warehouse receipt volume decreased. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased significantly compared to the previous month [2]. Price Overview - As of July 28, the average market price of domestic industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000 yuan/ton, a 21.67% increase from the previous month. The average market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 74,000 yuan/ton, a 21.31% increase from the previous month [6]. - In July, the domestic cobalt market fluctuated upward. The price of cobalt products increased. The international cobalt price fluctuated downward, and the domestic production cost was adjusted accordingly [7]. Market Outlook - The lithium carbonate market is expected to continue to show a weak and volatile pattern in the short term, with prices fluctuating between 63,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton. The price of lithium hydroxide is expected to move slightly higher in August, with a fluctuation range of 1,000 - 5,000 yuan/ton [17]. - The short - term market of cobalt salts may be slightly stronger. The price of cobalt sulfate is expected to rise slightly, with a quotation range of 50,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and the price of cobalt chloride is expected to be between 62,500 - 64,000 yuan/ton. The price of tricobalt tetroxide is expected to rise slightly, with a quotation range of 210,000 - 225,000 yuan/ton, and the price of cobalt oxide is expected to be between 190,000 - 205,000 yuan/ton [17][18]. Supply - side Situation - In July, domestic lithium carbonate production was about 84,882 tons, a 4.84% month - on - month increase, and the operating rate increased by 5.74%. Lithium hydroxide production was about 22,800 tons, a 2.35% month - on - month decrease, and the operating rate decreased by 2.34% [41]. China's Production Cost and Profit - As of July 28, the average market price of imported lithium spodumene ore was 673 yuan/ton degree, the average market price of African SC5% was 530 US dollars/ton, and the average market price of Australian 6% lithium spodumene CIF was 850 US dollars/ton. The cost of cobalt sulfate continued to be under pressure, and the cost of tricobalt tetroxide fluctuated [53]. Import - Export - In June 2025, the total import volume of lithium carbonate was 17,697.624 tons, mainly from Chile and imported through Shanghai. The export volume was 286.735 tons, mainly to Australia and exported from Hebei Province [55]. - In June 2025, the import volume of lithium hydroxide was 1,482.343 tons, mainly from Indonesia and China, and imported through Jiangsu and Sichuan Provinces. The export volume was 6,260.074 tons, mainly to South Korea and Japan, and exported from Jiangxi, Guangxi, and Sichuan Provinces [55]. - In June 2025, the import volume of tricobalt tetroxide was 0.004 tons, a 99.87% year - on - year decrease. The export volume was 161.732 tons, a 47.56% year - on - year decrease and a 51.62% month - on - month decrease [55][56]. Consumption - In June, China's new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.268 million and 1.329 million respectively. Policy support was still expected [75]. - In June 2025, China's total lithium battery installed capacity was 58.2 GWh, a 35.98% year - on - year increase and a 1.93% month - on - month increase. LFP battery installed capacity accounted for 81.44%, and NCM battery installed capacity accounted for 18.38% [79]. - In July 2025, China's lithium iron phosphate production was 310,000 tons, a 5.91% month - on - month increase, and the production of ternary materials was 71,300 tons, a 5.94% month - on - month increase [82]. - In July 2025, China's ternary precursor production was 68,900 tons, a 0.06% month - on - month increase and a 0.14% year - on - year increase [104]. Inventory - According to the latest SMM statistics, the spot inventory was 141,700 tons, including 52,000 tons in smelters, 45,900 tons in downstream enterprises, and 43,900 tons in other inventories [120].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply side: This week, China's lithium carbonate production decreased by 644 tons to 18,100 tons week - on - week. A lithium salt plant in Jiangxi plans a 2 - month shutdown for maintenance, expected to affect monthly output by about 1,000 tons. In May, Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China were 9,700 tons, a significant 38% decrease month - on - month. China's social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 1,510 tons to 138,300 tons week - on - week, and overall inventory remains high. In the medium - to - long - term, the pressure of oversupply of lithium carbonate in the next two years is still large [5]. - Demand side: In July, downstream production scheduling increased slightly month - on - month. Power production scheduling declined, and there was some rush - to - export behavior in energy - storage cells. The terminal market maintained a rapid growth rate, with the preliminary forecast of 1.017 million new - energy passenger vehicle retail sales in China, a 25% year - on - year increase [5]. - Cost side: This week, the price of spodumene concentrate increased by 6.0% week - on - week, and the price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 5.8% week - on - week. Overseas mines have a strong price - holding sentiment, and the purchasing enthusiasm of non - integrated lithium salt plants has increased [5]. - Strategy: The improvement of macro - sentiment and the reduction of warehouse receipts drive buying, but the improvement of the fundamentals is limited. The meeting mentioned "anti - involution competition", which stimulates the market's buying sentiment. It is necessary to observe the implementation of policies. In the short term, the sentiment may still have some support, and lithium prices are expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see for now [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - **5 - month lithium spodumene imports decreased slightly month - on - month**: From January to May, China imported 2.92 million tons of lithium spodumene. In May, imports were 605,000 tons, a 2.9% decrease month - on - month. Imports from Australia and South Africa increased, while those from Zimbabwe decreased [9]. - **Lithium concentrate prices stabilized and rebounded**: This week, the price of spodumene concentrate increased by 6.0% week - on - week, and the price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 5.8% week - on - week. Overseas mines have a strong price - holding sentiment, and non - integrated lithium salt plants have higher purchasing enthusiasm [12]. - **June domestic lithium carbonate production increased slightly month - on - month**: In June, SMM's total lithium carbonate production increased by 8% month - on - month and 18% year - on - year. Production from spodumene, lepidolite, and salt lakes increased, while that from the recycling end decreased [16]. - **June Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China remained low**: From January to May, China imported 100,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a 15.3% year - on - year increase. In June, Chile exported 10,200 tons to China, a 41% year - on - year decrease and a 6% month - on - month increase [20]. - **Spot prices stabilized and rebounded**: This week, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,300 yuan/ton, a 1.9% week - on - week increase. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also rebounded [21]. Demand Side - **Global new - energy vehicle market started well**: From January to April, global new - energy vehicle sales were 5.564 million, a 25.5% year - on - year increase. In China, from January to May, new - energy vehicle sales were 5.605 million, a 44.0% year - on - year increase [29][32]. - **Power battery production maintained a high growth rate**: In May, China's total production of power and other batteries was 123.5 GWh, a 4.4% month - on - month and 47.9% year - on - year increase [36]. - **Domestic mobile phone shipments increased slightly year - on - year**: In the first quarter of 2025, China's smartphone market shipments were 71.6 million, a 3.3% year - on - year increase [41]. - **In May, some provinces had a "rush - to - install" trend**: From January to May, the total installed capacity of newly commissioned new - energy storage projects was 18.62 GW/47.57 GWh, with power and capacity increasing by 110% and 112.94% year - on - year respectively [45]. - **July downstream production scheduling increased slightly month - on - month**: Power production scheduling declined, and there was some rush - to - export behavior in energy - storage cells [51]. Other Indicators - **Non - integrated lithium salt plants had cost inversion**: The theoretical production cost of manufacturers using purchased spodumene was 71,749 yuan/ton, with a negative theoretical production profit of 9,849 yuan/ton [48]. - **This week, the basis narrowed**: The basis of lithium carbonate was - 980, and the spot price was at a discount to the futures price. The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices remained flat at 1,600 yuan/ton [54]. - **The spread between contracts widened**: The term structure of lithium carbonate contracts was horizontal, and the spread between the first - nearby and near - month contracts was - 200, 300 less than last week [57].

国投安信期货表示，碳酸锂反弹，市场交投一般。市场总体库存增800吨至13.24万吨，下游库存降540 吨至4.1万吨，冶炼厂库存增千吨在5.7万吨，中间环节增库存500吨，下游补库和上游去库未能持续，但 中间环节表现贸易商心态出现积极变化，现货抄底情绪延续。澳矿最新报价607.5美元，下跌速度有所 放缓，矿端抵抗开始显现。中游产量再度抬升，产量环比增7%。技术上看，碳酸锂期价跌势放缓，持 仓暗示风险集聚，澳矿跌价速度有所放缓，空头核心动力迟滞，轻仓参与反弹。 申银万国期货指出，碳酸锂周度产量环比增加891吨至17471吨，其中锂辉石提锂环比增加760吨，云母 提锂环比增加250吨，盐湖提锂环比增加10吨，回收料提锂环比减少129吨；部分企业此前经过检修拟在 6月复产，6月预计产量仍环比增加9.4%至7.89万吨。正极排产数据来看表现一般，但正极库存连续消 化，特别是磷酸铁锂库存周转天数已经明显下降，电芯端延续放缓，但终端销售仍然亮眼，渗透率维持 高位。周度库存环比增加861吨至132432吨，下游库存小幅下降，上游和中间环节增加。整体来看基本 面没有发生实质好转，当前价格水平之下需要注意资金低位博弈情况。 光 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing significant price declines due to weak downstream demand and various external factors, including changing tariff policies and increased supply, leading to a bearish sentiment in the industry [2][3][10]. Price Trends - Lithium carbonate futures and spot prices have entered a downward trend, with futures prices dropping to a historical low of 66,000 yuan/ton by April 30, 2023, marking a cumulative decline of 15% since the beginning of the year [2][3]. - The spot price for battery-grade lithium carbonate has decreased from 75,100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 68,300 yuan/ton, reflecting a drop of 9% [5]. Demand Factors - Downstream demand remains weak, with battery manufacturers reducing orders for cathode materials, indicating that actual demand has not met expectations [3][9]. - The U.S. tariff policies have directly impacted the export market for Chinese lithium batteries, leading to a significant contraction in demand [3][9]. Supply Dynamics - The supply side has seen increased production, particularly from major mines in Jiangxi, which have resumed operations post-Chinese New Year, contributing to a rise in lithium carbonate output [4][7]. - Despite some lithium salt manufacturers implementing production cuts, the overall supply continues to grow, leading to a further decline in prices [4][10]. Inventory and Production Rates - The lithium carbonate production rate reached a historical high of 7.9 million tons per month, with the operating rate at 48.77%, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous week [8][10]. - Inventory levels are increasing, with total inventory nearing historical highs, indicating a potential oversupply situation [8][10]. Market Sentiment - The market sentiment is predominantly bearish, with participants concerned about the ongoing price declines and the impact of tariffs on future demand [3][9]. - Analysts suggest that the current low prices may limit further declines, but the overall market remains cautious due to high inventory levels and weak demand [11].