1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [8] - Options: Sell put options [8] 2. Core View of the Report - After a significant decline, copper prices are showing signs of stabilizing and rebounding as gold prices gradually stabilize. The persistently low TC price pattern remains unchanged, so the probability of continuous decline is not high. However, due to the approaching Spring Festival holiday, demand continues to weaken. For enterprises with buy - hedging needs, they can carry out appropriate small - scale hedging (about two weeks' worth), but the position should not be too heavy. It is expected that the copper price will operate in the range of 98,000 yuan/ton to 110,000 yuan/ton before the Spring Festival [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On February 4, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 104,950 yuan/ton and closed at 105,160 yuan/ton, a 0.63% increase from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 104,000 yuan/ton and closed at 102,590 yuan/ton, a 2.22% decrease from the afternoon closing price of the same day [1] 3.1.2 Spot Situation - According to SMM, the average spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 100 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan increase from the previous day. The copper price ranged from 103,800 to 105,010 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 103,830 yuan/ton. The market supply of goods was tight, and holders were reluctant to sell at low prices, causing the spot discount to gradually narrow. Downstream procurement slowed down, and the pattern of weak supply and demand continued. It is expected that the discount will continue to narrow slightly today [2] 3.2 Important Information Summary 3.2.1 Macro and Geopolitical Aspects - Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi clarified Iran's official stance on the talks with the US in Oman, stating that the talks will be held in Muscat, the capital of Oman, at around 10 a.m. on February 6. The US previously rejected Iran's proposal to change the original meeting location from Istanbul, Turkey, to Oman, which raised concerns in the Middle East about the possibility of Trump taking military action [3] 3.2.2 Economic Data - The US added 22,000 new ADP jobs in January, far lower than the market expectation of 48,000. The previous value was revised down from 41,000 to 37,000. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced that it will release the January non - farm payroll report on February 11, the job vacancy data on February 5, and reschedule the release of the January CPI on February 13 [3] 3.2.3 Mining End - Swedish copper and zinc mining company Boliden said on February 3 that heavy rainfall in Portugal in January caused water management problems at its Somincor mine. Although the company maintained its performance guidance for the mine in 2026, it said that the overall impact of the rain on the first - quarter performance would depend on future weather conditions. Boliden's CEO Mikael Staffas said that considering the company's leverage ratio, including net reclamation debt, which is much higher than the 20% target in the dividend policy, the company will not consider additional cash distribution this year [4] 3.2.4 Smelting and Import - On February 4, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association announced that it has stopped more than 2 million tons of new or planned copper smelting projects, indicating a key substantial progress in the industry's self - initiated capacity management and "anti - involution" policy. The association will continue to cooperate with national departments to strictly control new copper smelting projects, aiming to reverse the passive situation of the increasing proportion of imported copper concentrates. The association is also promoting the improvement of the copper resource reserve system, including expanding the national strategic reserve scale and exploring the establishment of a commercial reserve mechanism [5] 3.2.5 Consumption - In January 2026, the terminal consumption of copper products showed the characteristic of pre - holiday rush, but there were differences among specific sectors. In the power sector, State Grid orders were the core support, but project - end orders were weak. The home appliance industry was strong due to the year - end peak season. The automotive sector had stable orders. Traditional sectors such as construction and hardware were dragged down by the real - estate slump. High copper prices significantly suppressed terminal demand, and downstream procurement showed a "buy - on - dips" characteristic. It is expected that terminal consumption will enter a seasonal trough in February [6] 3.2.6 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 1,450 tons to 178,650 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 751 tons to 159,772 tons. On February 4, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 330,400 tons, a change of 7,600 tons from the previous week [7]