Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that 70%-80% of stocks and three-quarters of funds have achieved positive returns this year, and the bullish market trend is likely to continue until 2026, driven by improved market liquidity conditions [1] - The A-share market has shown strong performance, with all three major indices reaching new highs for the year, and trading activity has significantly increased [1] - The improvement in liquidity is attributed to the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and domestic central bank operations injecting liquidity, which benefits risk assets [1][2] Group 2 - The correlation between changes in foreign exchange reserves and the CSI All A Index indicates that a significant amount of capital that was previously held overseas is beginning to flow back into China, particularly since 2025 [2] - Historical patterns suggest that the dollar cycle lasts about 17 years, and if the dollar enters a new down cycle, it may be favorable for non-dollar assets such as Chinese assets, gold, and commodities [2] - The economic cycle in China is in a recovery phase, with M2 starting to recover since September 2024, which aligns with the upward movement of the large-cap stock index [2] Group 3 - In the short to medium term, as long as liquidity improves and the economic cycle does not shift, market risk appetite is expected to remain positive, particularly during the policy announcement window in September and October [3] - The Hong Kong stock market is also expected to have upward potential in the second half of the year, driven by the "northbound capital southward" trend, with significant policy support enhancing market sentiment [3] - The scale of southbound capital in the first half of the year has already exceeded the total for the previous year, indicating strong investor interest in the Hong Kong market [3]