2025年11月3日 研究所 祁玉蓉 从业资格号：F03100031 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021060 TEL：010-8229 5006 摘要 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观：中美元首会晤基本符合预期，未对市场带来额外提 | | | | | 振；美联储宣布降息25个基点，但鲍威尔发言偏鹰，市场 | | | | | 乐观情绪有所消散，有色有所承压。 | | | |  | 原料端：趋松有所收紧。与国产矿相比，进口矿贵超2,000 | | | | | 元/金属吨，炼厂抢购国产矿情绪持续，带动多地加工费持 | 国内锌市维持供强需弱格局，价 | | | | 续下滑，加之企业看跌后续加工费，港口矿贸易商报价意 | 格继续上行动力略显不足，锌价 | | | | 愿较低，进口锌精矿报价亦持续下滑，预计后续加工费易 | 或有所承压，前期多头注意利润 | | | | 跌难涨。上周澳大利亚地区的Endeavor矿山发生爆炸，事 | 保护；伦锌来看，LME宣布对锌 | | | | 故后矿山已暂停作业。 | 大额头存进行限制，近远月深 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the given text about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The zinc market's surplus pattern remains unchanged. With the continuous recovery of TC and good returns from by - products such as sulfuric acid, smelters' production enthusiasm is high. However, high zinc prices and the consumption off - season suppress downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and inventory continues to accumulate, with strong upward pressure. It is expected that zinc prices may weaken and consolidate in the short term, operating in the range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton. Continued attention should be paid to macro - economic conditions and downstream consumption [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots rose 2.02% to 22,700 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract rose 2.65% to 22,885 yuan/ton; the LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) rose 0.18% to 2,829 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Industry Conditions**: Refining zinc enterprises' production profits continued to improve; galvanizing start - up increased slightly but the terminal remained weak; die - casting zinc alloy start - up was cautious due to the off - season; zinc oxide start - up declined due to weak demand; zinc ingot social inventory continued to accumulate [4][15][45]. 2. Supply - Side Analysis 2.1 Raw Material End - **Zinc Concentrate Inventory**: As of July 25, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 80,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week; the total inventory of 7 ports was 354,000 tons, a decrease of 86,000 tons from the previous week [19]. - **Zinc Concentrate Profit**: As of July 24, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 4,448 yuan/metal ton. In June, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 330,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.87% and a year - on - year increase of 22.42%; from January to June, the cumulative import volume was 2.5339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 47.74% [25]. - **TC Changes**: The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee remained at 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the import index rose to 76.25 US dollars/dry ton [28]. 2.2 Smelting End - **Smelter Production**: Refining zinc enterprises' production profits continued to improve. As of July 24, the production profit of refining zinc enterprises was - 138 yuan/ton. In June, the domestic refined zinc output was 590,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,800 tons, and the output in July is expected to remain high [37]. - **Import Situation**: The import profit window was closed. As of July 25, the import profit of refined zinc was - 1,586.89 yuan/ton. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 192,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 30,000 tons [42]. 3. Demand - Side Analysis 3.1 Galvanizing - **Start - up Rate**: The galvanizing enterprise start - up rate increased by 0.30 percentage points to 59.42%. The good trend of black metal prices and traders' continuous replenishment drove the recovery of galvanizing start - up. However, orders for guardrails, lamp posts, and photovoltaic brackets remained weak [49]. - **Inventory Changes**: Galvanizing enterprises' raw material inventory decreased as high zinc prices suppressed downstream purchasing enthusiasm. Finished product inventory decreased as enterprises were pessimistic about the future and consumed inventory for profit realization [52]. 3.2 Die - Casting Zinc Alloy - **Price Changes**: The average price of Zamak3 zinc alloy rose 1.96% to 23,395 yuan/ton, and the average price of Zamak5 zinc alloy rose 1.92% to 23,945 yuan/ton [58]. - **Start - up Rate**: The die - casting zinc alloy start - up rate decreased by 0.92 percentage points to 51.03%. Due to the consumption off - season, enterprise production declined, and the start - up rate was expected to continue to decline [61]. - **Inventory Changes**: Die - casting zinc alloy enterprises' raw material inventory decreased due to weak purchasing enthusiasm at high zinc prices, and finished product inventory increased as the shipment rhythm slowed down [64]. 3.3 Zinc Oxide - **Price Changes**: The average price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% rose 1.40% to 21,700 yuan/ton [68]. - **Start - up Rate**: The zinc oxide enterprise start - up rate decreased by 0.33 percentage points to 55.99%. Weak terminal demand and the off - season led to a general performance of orders [71]. - **Inventory Changes**: Zinc oxide enterprises' raw material inventory decreased as they mainly made rigid purchases at high zinc prices, and finished product inventory increased due to weak terminal demand [74]. 4. Inventory Analysis - **Social Inventory**: As of July 24, the SMM zinc ingot three - place inventory was 90,200 tons, showing an increase. The high zinc price at the beginning of the week suppressed downstream purchasing enthusiasm, leading to continuous inventory accumulation. The SMM zinc ingot bonded area inventory was 6,000 tons, remaining stable compared to the previous week [79]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of July 25, the SHFE inventory was 59,400 tons, showing an increase, and the LME inventory was 115,800 tons, showing a decrease [82]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance**: In June 2025, the production was 585,000 tons, the import volume was 25,000 tons, the export volume was 200 tons, the apparent consumption was 610,000 tons, the actual consumption was 586,000 tons, and the monthly supply - demand balance was 24,000 tons [88].