美国人做梦都想不到，他们的军工命脉竟然握在一个中国小县城手里。 这个县城叫冷水江，在湖南娄底。当地有座山，名字听起来挺搞笑——锡矿山。可这山压根不产锡，产 的是一种比稀土还珍贵的金属：锑。 2024年12月，中国一声令下，禁止对美出口锑。美国人傻眼了。 要知道，美国海军91.6%的武器都得用这玩意儿。F-35战机的红外探测器，标枪导弹的制导系统，全靠 锑化铟这种材料。没了锑，美国的尖端武器基本就是瞎子。 更要命的是，全球70%的锑都在中国手里。美国自己有矿，但1992年就停产了，直到去年才重新开工， 2028年才能投产。 从那时起，锡矿山就成了全球锑业的霸主。短短11年，产量就占了全世界一半。两次世界大战期间，各 国都来这里抢锑，因为这东西是造子弹的关键材料。 说起锑的本事，那真是太多了。最大的用途是做阻燃剂，占全球消费量55%。你家的塑料制品、电器外 壳，多半都加了锑。高温下，锑能释放出特殊气体，把火给憋死。 军工领域更离谱。锑有个奇葩特性——热缩冷胀，正好跟普通金属相反。这让它成了改善合金硬度的神 器。枪管、炮管、子弹头，都离不开锑。 最近几年，锑又找到了新出路——光伏玻璃。太阳能板要透光率高，就得用超白 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing competition between China and the United States over critical minerals such as gallium, germanium, and antimony is a complex battle involving legal, technological, diplomatic, and intelligence dimensions, with both sides intensifying their efforts and refusing to yield [1]. Group 1: Background of the Conflict - The conflict began in late 2023 when China tightened its export controls on key minerals, disrupting the U.S. industrial supply chain, which heavily relies on Chinese refining capabilities for over 90% of gallium and germanium and nearly all antimony [2]. - This move by China aimed to leverage its resource advantage to pressure the U.S. into concessions in other areas [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the supply cut, prices for the relevant minerals surged by two to three times, prompting the U.S. market to seek alternative sources [4]. - Thailand and Mexico emerged as significant import sources for the U.S., with their antimony exports increasing dramatically, surpassing the total from the previous three years, despite these countries having minimal domestic production [4]. Group 3: Gray Market Dynamics - A gray supply chain quickly formed, involving multinational "movers" who procure minerals from China and disguise them as ordinary minerals, fertilizers, or artworks to reroute them through third countries like Thailand and Mexico before reaching the U.S. [6]. - The transfer fees for each ton of minerals can reach up to $50,000, attracting many to take risks in this lucrative market [6]. - In the first half of 2025, a company in Guangxi reportedly shipped 3,300 tons of antimony products to the U.S. through its subsidiary in Thailand [6]. Group 4: Regulatory Responses - In response to the rampant gray trade, China has initiated investigations and enhanced regulatory measures, including the introduction of a new Mineral Resources Law and deploying AI and penetration detection systems at ports [8]. - Despite these efforts, the gray market continues to adapt, making it challenging for regulators to completely eliminate these channels [8]. Group 5: U.S. Countermeasures - The U.S. is actively addressing the situation by utilizing gray channels to acquire critical minerals while simultaneously implementing measures to mitigate risks [10]. - In May 2025, the U.S. and Vietnam agreed to impose a 40% tax on goods transiting through third countries to combat "origin laundering" practices [10]. - The U.S., Japan, India, and Australia have launched the "Quad Critical Minerals Initiative" to establish an independent supply chain and reduce reliance on China, although this initiative faces significant challenges [10]. Group 6: Conclusion of the Conflict - The essence of this mineral competition is a struggle over interests and demands, with each ton of minerals representing the outcome of multifaceted negotiations [12]. - While China holds the upper hand with its export controls, the challenge of closing gray market loopholes remains significant; conversely, the U.S. is striving to fill its supply gaps, but establishing new supply chains is not straightforward [12]. - The ultimate goal for both sides is supply chain security, with the gray market acting as a natural buffer in this ongoing conflict, which shows no signs of resolution and remains fraught with uncertainty [12].