Group 1 - The price of tungsten products is reaching new highs due to a decrease in supply influenced by the first batch of tungsten concentrate quotas and environmental inspections in China [1] - The increase in tungsten production from foreign mines such as Sandong and Dolphin is below expectations, while the Bakuta tungsten mine has started production but lacks local smelting capacity, necessitating transportation back to China for smelting before export [1] - The overall balance sheet for tungsten is tight, with a more pronounced supply gap overseas compared to domestic markets, leading to an optimistic price outlook [1] Group 2 - Antimony prices in the domestic market have nearly bottomed out, with the Ministry of Commerce responding to export license applications for antimony, indicating compliance reviews will be conducted [1] - Downstream terminal demand is currently at a low point, but expectations for reduced production in photovoltaic glass have been realized, and the traditional peak season for flame retardants is approaching in September and October [1] - If export demand recovers effectively alongside the upcoming peak season for flame retardants, it is expected to significantly boost domestic antimony prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global competition for rare earth resources is intensifying, with China holding a near-monopoly in this sector, while other countries, despite having rich rare earth mineral resources, lack efficient refining technology [1] Group 1: Rare Earth Supply Chain Dynamics - The United States and other countries are increasingly relying on Thailand and Mexico as key transit points to bypass China for rare earth supplies [3] - These countries employ various tactics, including repackaging rare earths to disguise their origin, to facilitate the export of Chinese rare earths to the U.S. [3][5] - The logistics companies involved in this smuggling operation are profiting significantly, with U.S. imports of antimony products from Thailand and Mexico reaching 3,834 tons between December 2024 and April 2025, far exceeding the total from the previous three years [7] Group 2: China's Response and Regulatory Measures - In response to the smuggling and circumvention of export controls, China has implemented unprecedented measures to track rare earths, assigning unique codes to each gram for precise monitoring [11] - Customs authorities in Shenzhen and Hong Kong have been equipped with advanced detection technology to identify disguised rare earth products quickly [11][12] - Following the implementation of these measures, the difficulty for the U.S. to acquire rare earths through illegal channels has increased, leading to a backlog of suspicious containers in Mexican ports and detained rare earth products in Thai warehouses [13] Group 3: Global Implications and Future Outlook - The European Union has recognized the severity of the situation, with the introduction of the Critical Minerals Act aimed at stabilizing supply chains, although European automakers still rely on Chinese rare earth permits due to technological gaps [15] - China has developed a new "dysprosium-free magnet" that is 40% cheaper than traditional materials, potentially setting a new industry standard [17] - The "zero-carbon rare earth" certification system promoted by China is becoming the default standard for global procurement, indicating China's dominant position in the rare earth supply chain [17]

Group 1 - The article highlights that since China's antimony export ban in December last year, the U.S. has resorted to "roundabout imports" from Thailand and Mexico, acquiring up to 3,834 tons of antimony oxide, nearly equivalent to the total export volume from previous years [1] - Customs data indicates that from December last year to April this year, imports of Chinese antimony products by Thailand and Mexico surged by 300%, despite Thailand having only one antimony smelter and Mexico's sole processing plant restarting production only in April [1][2] - The article reveals that many of the new mining product traders in Nuevo León, Mexico, are actually controlled by offshore Chinese companies, with Unipet Industrial in Thailand being a wholly-owned subsidiary of a Chinese firm, significantly increasing its shipments to the U.S. [2] Group 2 - U.S. buyers openly acknowledge the use of alternative sourcing methods, with one miner admitting to receiving 200 kg of gallium from China, disguised under different labels to bypass scrutiny [2] - In May, a special meeting in China identified "third-country transshipment" as a key target for crackdown, indicating that such smuggling poses a national security threat, although actual enforcement has not met expectations [4] - The article underscores the challenges in global supply chains, suggesting that strict customs checks alone are insufficient to combat the circumvention of export controls, emphasizing the need for regulatory revisions and strategic mineral resource planning [4]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing competition between China and the United States over critical minerals such as gallium, germanium, and antimony is a complex battle involving legal, technological, diplomatic, and intelligence dimensions, with both sides intensifying their efforts and refusing to yield [1]. Group 1: Background of the Conflict - The conflict began in late 2023 when China tightened its export controls on key minerals, disrupting the U.S. industrial supply chain, which heavily relies on Chinese refining capabilities for over 90% of gallium and germanium and nearly all antimony [2]. - This move by China aimed to leverage its resource advantage to pressure the U.S. into concessions in other areas [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the supply cut, prices for the relevant minerals surged by two to three times, prompting the U.S. market to seek alternative sources [4]. - Thailand and Mexico emerged as significant import sources for the U.S., with their antimony exports increasing dramatically, surpassing the total from the previous three years, despite these countries having minimal domestic production [4]. Group 3: Gray Market Dynamics - A gray supply chain quickly formed, involving multinational "movers" who procure minerals from China and disguise them as ordinary minerals, fertilizers, or artworks to reroute them through third countries like Thailand and Mexico before reaching the U.S. [6]. - The transfer fees for each ton of minerals can reach up to $50,000, attracting many to take risks in this lucrative market [6]. - In the first half of 2025, a company in Guangxi reportedly shipped 3,300 tons of antimony products to the U.S. through its subsidiary in Thailand [6]. Group 4: Regulatory Responses - In response to the rampant gray trade, China has initiated investigations and enhanced regulatory measures, including the introduction of a new Mineral Resources Law and deploying AI and penetration detection systems at ports [8]. - Despite these efforts, the gray market continues to adapt, making it challenging for regulators to completely eliminate these channels [8]. Group 5: U.S. Countermeasures - The U.S. is actively addressing the situation by utilizing gray channels to acquire critical minerals while simultaneously implementing measures to mitigate risks [10]. - In May 2025, the U.S. and Vietnam agreed to impose a 40% tax on goods transiting through third countries to combat "origin laundering" practices [10]. - The U.S., Japan, India, and Australia have launched the "Quad Critical Minerals Initiative" to establish an independent supply chain and reduce reliance on China, although this initiative faces significant challenges [10]. Group 6: Conclusion of the Conflict - The essence of this mineral competition is a struggle over interests and demands, with each ton of minerals representing the outcome of multifaceted negotiations [12]. - While China holds the upper hand with its export controls, the challenge of closing gray market loopholes remains significant; conversely, the U.S. is striving to fill its supply gaps, but establishing new supply chains is not straightforward [12]. - The ultimate goal for both sides is supply chain security, with the gray market acting as a natural buffer in this ongoing conflict, which shows no signs of resolution and remains fraught with uncertainty [12].

Market Overview - On March 7, 2025, the A-share market showed a trend of oscillation and correction, with all three major indices closing lower. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.25% to 3372.55 points, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.5% to 10843.73 points, and the ChiNext Index experienced the largest drop, closing at 2205.31 points, indicating significant short-term adjustment pressure on technology growth stocks [1][2]. Market Factors - During the Two Sessions, there was a dense release of policy signals, but the market remains cautious regarding the implementation of specific details. Additionally, external disturbances such as a significant drop in U.S. tech stocks (Nasdaq down 2.61%) and the European Central Bank's interest rate cuts have led to a decrease in global risk appetite, putting pressure on the A-share technology sector [2]. Sector Analysis Strong Performing Sectors - The non-ferrous metals sector led the market, with companies like Huayu Mining, Hunan Gold, and Zhuhai Group hitting the daily limit. The price of antimony products surged, with antimony prices reaching 183,000 yuan/ton on March 7, up approximately 28.87% from 142,000 yuan/ton in early February. This reflects strong demand growth for antimony products [3]. - The AI agent concept saw a boost from the release of the first general-purpose agent application "ManusAI," with stocks like Newcap and Dahua Technology hitting the daily limit. The market anticipates that AI technology is entering the engineering implementation phase, supported by increasing demand for computing power [3]. Weak Performing Sectors - The solid-state battery sector faced declines, with companies like Shanghai Xiba and Delong Co. dropping over 8%. The market is skeptical about the commercialization progress of the technology, leading funds to shift towards more certain cyclical and technology sectors [4]. - The real estate and financial sectors showed weak performance due to economic slowdown and policy regulation, reflecting market caution towards traditional industries [5]. Market Outlook - In the short term, caution is advised, with a focus on policy and performance verification. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission has emphasized the need for value reassessment of central enterprises, and the central bank's liquidity easing stance may make undervalued blue-chip stocks a safe haven. The upcoming quarterly report season may pose risks for high-profile sectors like artificial intelligence, which could face performance verification pressure [6]. - In the medium to long term, three main lines of focus are suggested: 1. Technology growth sectors, particularly AI, computing power, and robotics, which may see a new round of market activity if innovations like Manus AI continue to materialize [7]. 2. Consumer recovery and high-end manufacturing, with sectors like automotive parts and non-ferrous metals benefiting from domestic demand recovery and global supply chain restructuring [7]. 3. Policy-driven opportunities in areas such as information technology innovation, state-owned enterprise reform, and "China Special Valuation" themes, where undervalued central enterprises may experience valuation recovery [7].