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科思股份(300856):业绩阶段性承压,新原料与新项目建设持续推进
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-10-24 11:20
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is experiencing temporary pressure on performance, with ongoing advancements in new materials and project construction [1] - The company reported a revenue of 1.116 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 39.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 78 million yuan, down 84.8% [8] - The core business profitability is under pressure, with a gross margin of 25.3% in Q3 2025, a decrease of 12.1 percentage points [8] - The sunscreen and fragrance industries are facing short-term disruptions, but the long-term growth logic remains intact due to increasing consumer awareness and product upgrades [8] - The company is a leading player in the sunscreen market, with a solid long-term strategy and ongoing capacity expansion [8] - The forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 127 million, 160 million, and 231 million yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 51.1, 40.5, and 28.1 respectively [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 2.4 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 36.0%, followed by a decline of 5.2% in 2024 and a significant drop of 27.5% in 2025 [7] - The net profit for 2023 is expected to be 734 million yuan, with a growth rate of 89.0%, but is projected to fall to 127 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a decrease of 77.4% [7] - The company's EPS is forecasted to decrease from 2.17 yuan in 2023 to 0.27 yuan in 2025 [7] - The company's ROE is expected to decline from 27.9% in 2023 to 4.2% in 2025 [7]