[Table_Page] 公告点评|食品与主要用品零售Ⅱ 证券研究报告 | Table_Invest] [公司评级 | 增持 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格 | 4.31 港元 | | 合理价值 | 5.18 港元 | | 前次评级 | 增持 | | 报告日期 | 2026-01-30 | 核心观点： *除非特别说明，否则报告货币为人民币 ⚫ 事件：公司发布 2025 年正面盈利预告。公司预计 2025 年实现收入 77.5~78.5 亿元，同比+19.8%~+21.3%；预计实现净利润 4.43~4.63 亿 元，同比+83.7%~+92.0%；预计实现核心经营利润 4.50~4.70 亿元， 同比+44.8%~+51.2%，全年收入和利润增长亮眼。 盈利预测： | [Table_ 单位 Finance] :人民币百万元 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入 | 6,094 | 6,470 | 7,802 | 9,424 | 11,363 | | 增长率（ % ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected net profits of 2.85 billion, 3.93 billion, and 5.18 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of -30.20%, 38.06%, and 31.72% [5] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 54.78 billion for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.94%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.38 billion, down 52.22% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 17.54 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.77%, but reported a net loss of 1.01 billion [1] - The company's brand matrix is forming with the main brand "Three Squirrels" generating 49.78 billion in revenue, up 6.14% year-on-year, and the sub-brand "Little Deer Blue" achieving 4.37 billion, up 13.51% [3] - The online sales through third-party platforms reached 42.95 billion, accounting for 78.42% of total revenue, with Douyin contributing 14.78 billion, a growth of 20.75% year-on-year [3] - The offline distribution business saw a revenue increase of 40.21% year-on-year, totaling 9.38 billion, while the revenue from offline stores decreased by 18.70% to 1.87 billion [3] Financial Performance - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 25.08%, down 0.77 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 2.53%, down 3.18 percentage points [4] - The company’s total liabilities were reported at 3,029.20 million, with a total asset value of 5,543.07 million [12] - The projected earnings per share for 2025 is 0.71, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 37.65 [7][12]