Viant Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:DSP) is one of the best-performing small-cap tech stocks in the past three years. On November 11, one day after Viant’s Q3 print (Nov 10), Citizens JMP’s Matthew Condon maintained “Market Outperform” and trimmed the price target to $16 from $18, citing a strong quarter. Condon noted that the contribution ex-TAC ran ~2% above consensus, and adjusted EBITDA topped the high end of guidance. Why Citizens JMP Backed Viant in November After EBITDA Beat and ex‑TAC Strength Yuganov ...

Core Insights - AppLovin Corporation has transformed from a struggling mobile game publisher to a leading AI infrastructure player, with its stock price reaching approximately $640 and a market capitalization of about $208 billion [2][4][13] Financial Performance - AppLovin's annual revenue has surged to nearly $5 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of approximately 40%, while operating margins have improved significantly due to its software-centric business model [3][10] - The company has a current P/E ratio of around 70×, and to reach a stock price of $1,000, it would need to generate earnings close to $6 billion annually [5][14] - For a more optimistic scenario, achieving annual sales of $12–13 billion with robust margins of 35–40% could lead to a valuation between $350 billion and $400 billion [7][14] Business Model and Strategy - The introduction of AppLovin's AI-powered advertising engine, AXON, has optimized ad placements and targeting in real-time, significantly enhancing performance for app developers and advertisers [3][9] - The self-reinforcing nature of the AXON engine allows for continuous improvement in ad performance, attracting more clients and generating more data, which further enhances the system's efficiency [9][12] Market Position and Future Outlook - AppLovin's shift towards high-margin software has made its earnings base more scalable and predictable, distancing itself from the volatility of in-house game revenues [10] - The company is positioned as a formidable contender in the AI marketing landscape, with strong capital efficiency and profit trajectory [12]

Core Insights - PubMatic is leveraging AI technology to enhance its programmatic advertising model, aiming to break down traditional barriers in the digital advertising space [3][6] - The integration of Nvidia's technology has led to significant improvements in processing speed and performance, making PubMatic's system competitive against those requiring substantial technology investments [3][7] Performance Improvements - The new system reduces inference latency from the industry standard of 5-10 milliseconds to approximately 1 millisecond, resulting in 85% fewer auction timeouts [4] - AI-powered decision-making algorithms allow for responses to programmatic opportunities in microseconds, significantly faster than traditional systems [5] - The system processes live campaign data twice as fast and delivers insights 60% more quickly, enabling real-time responses to advertising opportunities [5] Energy Efficiency - PubMatic's system claims to reduce energy consumption by 30%, contributing to more sustainable operations in the ad-tech industry [5] AI Integration and Innovations - The company has invested heavily in AI, launching an overhauled system that incorporates generative and agentic AI capabilities for deal simplification, forecasting, and optimization [6] - A new Live Sports Marketplace has been introduced to address the challenges of advertising during live events, accommodating rapid audience surges [6] Collaboration with Nvidia - The partnership with Nvidia has resulted in processing speeds that are up to five times faster than traditional systems, enhancing the overall efficiency of automated programmatic ad buying [7] - This collaboration aims to create AI-powered solutions that enable publishers to achieve performance levels previously only possible within walled gardens [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Trade Desk Inc. has experienced significant volatility in 2025, with a 70% drop followed by a 110% rally, leading to mixed investor sentiment regarding its recovery potential [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Technical Analysis - The stock opened around $50, remaining over 10% above September's low, with support at $43 holding for the second time this year, indicating a potential base for recovery [2]. - A bounce of over 10% from early September lows has strengthened the technical setup, with $43 acting as a hard floor, building investor confidence [3]. - The MACD has crossed into a bullish pattern, suggesting a trend reversal, while the RSI has rebounded from oversold territory, indicating potential for a sustained rally [4]. Group 2: Product and Market Developments - The Trade Desk announced its Audience Unlimited data marketplace, described as a "major upgrade," leveraging AI to enhance advertisers' understanding of data relevance [6]. - Following the announcement, shares jumped as much as 7%, reflecting Wall Street's continued interest in The Trade Desk's innovation pipeline [7]. - The broader digital advertising market is stabilizing, with analysts from Guggenheim, Needham, and UBS reiterating bullish stances on The Trade Desk [8]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The Trade Desk faces significant competition from larger peers like Alphabet and Amazon, which could pressure its margins and necessitate increased spending on innovation [9][10]. - Analysts express concerns over slowing growth and intensifying competition, with Morgan Stanley moving to the sidelines and JMP Securities highlighting the saturation in the ad-tech industry [11][12].

Core Insights - The Trade Desk has launched Audience Unlimited, a significant upgrade aimed at making third-party audience data more accessible and cost-effective for advertisers, with AI integration at its core [2][11] Group 1: Changes in Data Marketplace - The new structure shifts from a la carte segment fees to a predictable pricing model, allowing advertisers to access AI-scored audience selections across thousands of segments without the complexity of choosing individual segments [3][4] - The goal is to enhance the value and usability of third-party data, encouraging advertisers to utilize more high-quality data for improved campaign performance [4] Group 2: Pricing and Access - Audience Unlimited features tiered pricing of 3.3% and 4.4% of impression costs in Control Mode, while Performance Mode includes it at no additional cost, promoting broader data adoption [5] - A la carte pricing remains available for teams preferring existing workflows, ensuring transparency and predictability in costs [5] Group 3: New Trading Modes - The introduction of Koa adaptive trading modes includes Performance Mode, which optimizes bids and allocations using AI, and Control Mode, allowing traders to manage their campaigns manually with AI suggestions [6][7] - This dual approach caters to both hands-on traders and those seeking automated solutions, enhancing the platform's versatility [7] Group 4: Rollout Timeline - Audience Unlimited and Koa adaptive trading modes will be rolled out to select agencies in late 2025, with a broader launch planned for early 2026, allowing for performance validation and workflow adjustments [8] Group 5: Business Context - The launch follows a challenging period for The Trade Desk's stock, which saw a significant decline due to macroeconomic pressures on brand advertisers, yet the company's fundamentals remain strong with a 19% revenue increase year-over-year in Q2 [10] - Audience Unlimited represents a strategic effort to integrate third-party data into programmatic advertising, potentially stabilizing advertiser spending and enhancing platform loyalty over time [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - AppLovin has experienced significant stock price appreciation, joining the S&P 500, and is preparing for a new product launch that could further enhance its growth potential [2][6][10]. Business Performance - In Q2 2025, AppLovin's revenue increased by 77% year-over-year to $1.26 billion, with adjusted EBITDA nearly doubling to $1.02 billion, resulting in an 81% margin [3]. - The company generated net cash from operating activities of $772 million and free cash flow of $768 million during the same quarter [3]. - Management repurchased 0.9 million shares at a total cost of $341 million [3]. Future Guidance - For Q3 2025, AppLovin projects revenue between $1.32 billion and $1.34 billion, maintaining an adjusted EBITDA margin of 81% [4]. - The sale of its first-party Apps business for $400 million in cash and equity is expected to enhance focus on high-margin software and marketplace operations [4]. Product Launch - AppLovin plans to launch Axon Ads Manager on October 1, aimed at reducing onboarding friction for non-gaming and smaller advertisers, which could broaden demand and facilitate international expansion [5]. Valuation Concerns - The company's market value is approximately $243 billion, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio around 40, indicating a high premium that assumes flawless execution and sustained margins [6]. - The stock's rapid ascent raises concerns about whether current valuations can be justified by financial performance [10]. Market Dynamics - AppLovin's growth is supported by robust revenue generation and strong cash flow, but the company must demonstrate that its self-serve platform can deliver results [7]. - The ad-tech industry faces risks from concentration in mobile performance advertising and competition from large platforms investing in AI-driven tools [8]. Sentiment and Stock Performance - Following its S&P 500 inclusion and record highs, market sentiment could shift if the adoption of Axon Ads Manager is slower than anticipated or if growth normalizes [9]. - The current stock price reflects high expectations, and any minor setbacks could lead to significant declines in valuation [10].

Group 1: Market Overview - Companies are expected to benefit from double-digit earnings growth in the coming years [1] - The third quarter is nearing its end, leading to an influx of earnings reports and preparations for the holiday season [1] Group 2: Alphabet - Alphabet has reached an all-time high following the resolution of antitrust litigation, allowing it to continue its business operations without drastic penalties [4] - The company's cloud business is thriving due to AI demand, and its AI application, Gemini, is performing well on Apple's App Store [5] - Alphabet trades at a P/E ratio of 24, with anticipated annualized earnings growth of approximately 15% over the next three to five years [6] Group 3: Netflix - Netflix ended last year with over 301 million paid subscribers and has a net profit margin of 24.7% [7] - The company is expected to double its ad revenue this year through its new ad-supported membership and is expanding into live sports streaming [8] - Analysts project Netflix will grow earnings by nearly 23% annually over the next three to five years, justifying its current stock price of 45 times its 2025 earnings estimates [9] Group 4: The Trade Desk - The Trade Desk operates in a $1 trillion global advertising industry, focusing on digital ad placements and performance tracking [10] - The stock has fallen nearly 70% from its high, but its current valuation at 25 times estimated 2025 earnings is more reasonable [11] - The Trade Desk has historically outperformed the S&P 500 and is expected to achieve 20% annualized earnings growth over the next three to five years [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Trade Desk's premium valuation is increasingly difficult to justify due to competitive pressures and slowing growth [2][3][11]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, The Trade Desk reported a revenue increase of 19% year-over-year to $694 million, with adjusted EBITDA of approximately $271 million, reflecting a 39% margin [5]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue increase of 25% to $616 million, while full-year 2024 revenue grew by 26% [7]. - For Q3 2025, management guided revenue of at least $717 million, implying a 14% year-over-year growth [7]. Growth Dynamics - Connected TV (CTV) remains the fastest-growing channel for The Trade Desk, with no signs of slowing down [6]. - However, growth is decelerating, with a drop from 25% in Q1 to 19% in Q2, and guidance suggesting mid-teens growth for the upcoming quarter [7][11]. Competitive Landscape - Netflix's announcement to allow programmatic ad purchases through Amazon's DSP poses significant competitive risks for The Trade Desk [2][9]. - The entry of Amazon into the programmatic advertising space could pressure The Trade Desk's pricing power and market share, as large buyers may prefer Amazon's tools [10]. - The Trade Desk remains the leading independent DSP, with a customer retention rate above 95% and a strong product roadmap [11]. Valuation Concerns - The stock trades at a price-to-earnings multiple in the high 50s, which assumes sustained growth and market share gains without significant pressure from larger platforms [11]. - A more appropriate price-to-earnings ratio in the 30s may better reflect the competitive and execution risks associated with connected TV [12].

Core Insights - Sabio Holdings has launched its Creator Television® (Creator TV) free ad-supported television (FAST) channel on Amazon Fire TV Channels, expanding its reach to streaming audiences [1][3][5] Company Overview - Sabio Holdings is a Los Angeles-based ad-tech company that specializes in helping global brands reach, engage, and validate streaming TV audiences [1][5] - The company operates a proprietary ad-serving technology platform and App Science™, a non-cookie-based SaaS analytics platform with AI capabilities [6] Product Offering - Creator TV is the first creator-led streaming network and content studio, focusing on bringing social media storytelling to television [3][6] - The platform aims to attract young and diverse audiences by collaborating with social media content creators, enhancing their global presence and content monetization [3][4] Market Position - Fire TV Channels offers a free ad-supported TV experience that consolidates access to various content genres, including news, sports, and entertainment [2] - The collaboration with Fire TV Channels positions Creator TV to showcase high-quality content and innovate programming through the unique vision of social media creators [3][4]

Group 1 - Block Inc. will join the S&P 500 index, replacing Hess, effective before the opening bell on July 23, 2025, leading to an 8.5% increase in its shares during extended trading on July 18, 2025 [1] - The S&P 500 index saw recent changes, with The Trade Desk replacing Ansys, and Hess exiting due to Chevron's $54 billion acquisition [2] - Companies added to the S&P 500 typically experience stock price boosts due to fund managers and index-tracking ETFs rebalancing their holdings [3] Group 2 - Block's addition enhances the tech presence in the S&P 500, as the company, originally known as Square, has diversified into various financial services and rebranded to Block in 2021 to emphasize its commitment to blockchain technologies [4] - Despite a 16% year-to-date decline, Block's stock has surged 14.5% over the past month, with a market capitalization of approximately $45 billion, positioning it above the median company in the index [5] - Several ETFs, including Twin Oak Endure ETF (SPYA) and VanEck Digital Transformation ETF (DAPP), have significant investments in Block, with SPYA allocating about 7% of its weight to Block shares [6]