Group 1: Market Overview - The markets were mostly flat, with the small-cap Russell 2000 declining by -1.24% after a +2% gain the previous day [1] - The S&P 500 reached a third consecutive all-time closing high, increasing by +0.03% [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down -0.025%, recovering from a drop of -200 points earlier in the day, while the Nasdaq slipped -0.01% [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Outlook - Analysts anticipate a 25 basis-point interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve's next meeting scheduled for September 16-17 [2] - The likelihood of a September rate cut is currently at 93%, but this may change based on upcoming inflation data, including CPI, PPI, and PCE reports [3][2] Group 3: Company Performance - Applied Materials - Applied Materials reported earnings of $2.48 per share, exceeding the Zacks consensus estimate of $2.34, with revenues of $7.3 billion compared to the expected $7.2 billion [4] - Despite outperforming on earnings, the company provided a weak outlook for the current quarter, leading to a -12% decline in shares during after-hours trading [4] - The revised guidance indicates a top-line expectation of $6.7 billion, down from a previous estimate of $7.3 billion, and an earnings guidance midpoint of $2.11 per share, reduced from $2.38 per share [5] Group 4: Upcoming Economic Reports - A range of economic reports is expected tomorrow, including Retail Sales, Imports and Exports, and Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization for July, as well as the August Empire State manufacturing index [6] - Following the market opening, Business Inventories for June and Consumer Sentiment for August will be released [6] Group 5: Earnings Reports Next Week - The earnings reporting schedule will pick up next week with major retailers such as Walmart, Target, Home Depot, Lowe's, and The TJX Companies set to release their July quarter results [7] - Additionally, Palo Alto Networks and Estee Lauder are also expected to report earnings next week [7]

Core Viewpoint - Costco Wholesale has significantly outperformed the broader market, with a 200% increase in stock price over the last five years, doubling the S&P 500's return during the same period [1] Group 1: Sales Growth and Opportunities - Costco's sales have accelerated post-pandemic, with annualized revenue growth of about 11% from fiscal 2019 to fiscal 2024, compared to 8% from fiscal 2010 to 2019 [2] - The company has substantial growth opportunities in e-commerce and non-food sales, with e-commerce sales increasing nearly 16% year over year last quarter [6][7] - Costco's competitive advantage lies in its membership model, with nearly 80 million paying households, allowing it to offer low prices and continue expanding [4] Group 2: Expansion Plans - As of the recent quarter, Costco operates 914 warehouses globally, with plans to open 24 new locations in high-quality markets such as Sweden, Japan, South Korea, and Canada [5] - The company is experiencing double-digit sales growth in various non-food categories, including jewelry, toys, and home goods, indicating strong demand for diverse product offerings [8] Group 3: Valuation Concerns - Costco's stock trades at a high earnings multiple of 54 times forward earnings, significantly above the S&P 500's forward P/E ratio of 26 [9] - The current P/E ratio is also above Costco's five-year average of 44, raising concerns about the sustainability of such a high valuation given the slowing sales momentum in e-commerce and non-food sales [10][11] - Analysts expect long-term earnings growth at an annualized rate of 9%, which may not justify the current high P/E, potentially leading to disappointing returns for investors [11][12]

Economic Indicators - Initial Jobless Claims reached 240K last week, the highest in a month and 10K above consensus estimates, indicating potential softening in the labor market [3] - Continuing Claims hit 1.919 million, the highest since November 2021, suggesting an increase in long-term jobless claims [4] - Q1 2025 GDP was revised to -0.2%, improving from the first read and better than the expected -0.4%, with consumption decreasing from +1.8% to +1.2% [5] Inflation and Consumer Spending - The Pricing Index for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) reached +3.7%, in line with expectations, while the Core Pricing Index was +3.4%, the highest since Q1 2024 [6] Company Earnings Reports - Best Buy (BBY) reported Q1 earnings of $1.15 per share, exceeding expectations of $1.09, with revenues of $8.77 billion, but cut guidance due to tariff conditions, leading to a -3% pre-market sell-off [7] - Kohl's (KSS) reported a loss of -$0.13 per share, better than the expected -$0.22, with revenues of $3.23 billion surpassing estimates by +0.88%, and maintained forward guidance, resulting in a +7% pre-market increase [8]

Company Overview - Target is a big-box retailer with a diverse product range, competing primarily with Walmart, and has a history of 58 consecutive annual dividend increases [2] - Realty Income is a net lease REIT focused on single-tenant retail properties, with almost 75% of its rent roll from this segment, and has increased its dividend for 30 consecutive years [4][5] Stock Performance - Target's share price has decreased by 65% from its 2021 peak, while Realty Income's stock is down approximately 24% from its 2020 high [1] - Both companies are currently offering dividend yields near their highest levels in a decade, with Target's yield at around 4.6% and Realty Income's at 5.6% [7][8] Dividend Analysis - Target has an annualized dividend growth rate of roughly 8% over the past decade, compared to Realty Income's 3% [9] - Investors focused on maximizing income may prefer Realty Income due to its higher yield, while those interested in dividend growth may favor Target [7][9] Business Model Comparison - Target's performance is closely tied to consumer sentiment, making it more volatile and susceptible to market trends [10] - Realty Income's diversified tenant base provides stability, as retailers must pay rent to occupy properties, reducing the risk of significant swings in income [11] Investment Considerations - For conservative dividend investors, Realty Income's higher yield and stable business model may be more attractive [12]