Table of Contents Expand Table of Contents The Target boycott is one of the most sustained in recent memory. Mostafa Bassim / Getty Images Close Key Takeaways Target's January decision to end its DEI programs has triggered one of the most sustained corporate boycotts in recent memory, one that's only broadened over time. Earlier this month, both the American Federation of Teachers (AFT) and the Chicago Teachers Union joined the boycott, which was spearheaded earlier this year by Black clergy and has garnere ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights three stocks—Walmart, Eli Lilly, and Microsoft—that have consistently increased their dividends and are expected to continue doing so, making them attractive long-term investment options. Group 1: Walmart - Walmart's current dividend yield is 0.9%, below the S&P 500 average of 1.2%, but its stock price has increased over 120% in the past five years [4] - The company raised its dividend by 13% earlier this year, marking the 52nd consecutive year of dividend increases, showcasing its strong commitment to rewarding shareholders [6] - Walmart's business model attracts both low and high-income shoppers, benefiting from strong grocery operations and growth opportunities in e-commerce and advertising [7] Group 2: Eli Lilly - Eli Lilly's dividend yield is 0.8%, with a remarkable stock price increase of around 400% over the past five years, attributed to the success of its GLP-1 drugs [9] - The company announced a 15% dividend increase last December, marking the seventh consecutive year of significant dividend growth [9] - Eli Lilly generated over $53 billion in sales over the past 12 months, a substantial increase from less than $30 billion a few years ago, indicating strong growth potential [10] Group 3: Microsoft - Microsoft has the lowest yield on the list at less than 0.7%, but its stock has risen by around 150% in the past five years [11] - The company has been increasing its dividend since the early 2000s, having more than doubled its payout in the last decade, with expectations for continued growth driven by advancements in artificial intelligence [12] - Over the last 12 months, Microsoft generated $71.6 billion in free cash flow, with dividend payments totaling $24.1 billion, indicating a strong financial position for future dividend increases [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Bank of America analysts see positive factors for the big-box chain, including advancements in AI, appeal to younger consumers, and improved delivery speeds [1] - However, the article also indicates that steeper price competition is likely to emerge in the future, which could impact profitability [1]

Core Viewpoint - Walmart's recent earnings report indicates a decline in performance, with adjusted earnings per share falling short of expectations, raising concerns about future price increases and potential challenges for the company and its shareholders [3][5][10]. Financial Performance - Walmart reported fiscal Q2 revenue of $177.4 billion, exceeding analysts' expectations of $176.2 billion, but adjusted earnings per share were $0.68, below the projected $0.74 [5]. - The company's sales increased by approximately 5% year over year, while operating income declined by over 8% to $7.3 billion [8]. Tariff Impact - The impact of tariffs on Walmart's customers has been described as "somewhat muted," but rising costs are expected to continue affecting the company [6][7]. - CEO Doug McMillon acknowledged that costs are increasing weekly as inventory is replenished at post-tariff price levels, which may lead to further price hikes [7]. Stock Valuation and Market Position - Walmart's stock is trading at a high price-to-earnings multiple of 38, compared to the S&P 500 average of 25, indicating elevated investor expectations [9]. - The stock has nearly doubled since 2024, driven by a shift towards safe-haven investments amid macroeconomic concerns [9]. Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term challenges, Walmart is viewed as a solid long-term investment due to its strong fundamentals and growth opportunities in e-commerce and advertising [10][12]. - However, potential price hikes could lead to reduced discretionary spending by customers, impacting the company's performance in the near term [11].

Group 1: Market Overview - The markets were mostly flat, with the small-cap Russell 2000 declining by -1.24% after a +2% gain the previous day [1] - The S&P 500 reached a third consecutive all-time closing high, increasing by +0.03% [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down -0.025%, recovering from a drop of -200 points earlier in the day, while the Nasdaq slipped -0.01% [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Outlook - Analysts anticipate a 25 basis-point interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve's next meeting scheduled for September 16-17 [2] - The likelihood of a September rate cut is currently at 93%, but this may change based on upcoming inflation data, including CPI, PPI, and PCE reports [3][2] Group 3: Company Performance - Applied Materials - Applied Materials reported earnings of $2.48 per share, exceeding the Zacks consensus estimate of $2.34, with revenues of $7.3 billion compared to the expected $7.2 billion [4] - Despite outperforming on earnings, the company provided a weak outlook for the current quarter, leading to a -12% decline in shares during after-hours trading [4] - The revised guidance indicates a top-line expectation of $6.7 billion, down from a previous estimate of $7.3 billion, and an earnings guidance midpoint of $2.11 per share, reduced from $2.38 per share [5] Group 4: Upcoming Economic Reports - A range of economic reports is expected tomorrow, including Retail Sales, Imports and Exports, and Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization for July, as well as the August Empire State manufacturing index [6] - Following the market opening, Business Inventories for June and Consumer Sentiment for August will be released [6] Group 5: Earnings Reports Next Week - The earnings reporting schedule will pick up next week with major retailers such as Walmart, Target, Home Depot, Lowe's, and The TJX Companies set to release their July quarter results [7] - Additionally, Palo Alto Networks and Estee Lauder are also expected to report earnings next week [7]

Group 1: Inflation Impact on Retail - Inflation has been a significant issue for consumers in recent years, with rates hitting 2.7% as of June [3][5] - Historical data shows that the S&P 500 performs best when inflation is between 2% and 3%, with higher inflation potentially leading to increased interest rates that can negatively impact stock valuations [2] - Costco Wholesale, a leading big-box retailer, has seen its stock return over 200% in the past five years, outperforming the broader market [3][6] Group 2: Costco's Business Model - Costco operates on razor-thin margins, primarily generating profits from membership fees rather than product sales [4] - As one of the largest retailers, Costco can source goods at lower costs, allowing it to maintain competitive pricing even during inflationary periods [5] - The company attracts consumers looking for deals, but excessive inflation could still negatively affect sales, particularly of discretionary items [5][6] Group 3: Financial Performance and Valuation - Costco's sales for July 2025 reached $20.89 billion, reflecting an 8.5% increase from the previous year [6] - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has increased from about 40 five years ago to 55 today, indicating a significant rise in valuation [8] - Analysts project Costco's earnings will grow at an annualized rate of 9% over the next three to five years, resulting in a PEG ratio of approximately 6.0, suggesting the stock may be overvalued relative to its growth potential [10] Group 4: Future Outlook - The stock's current valuation may lead to a reversion towards long-term norms, especially if inflation continues to rise and discretionary spending is squeezed [12] - Despite concerns about short-term prospects, Costco is expected to remain a strong business in the long term [13]

Core Viewpoint - Costco Wholesale has significantly outperformed the broader market, with a 200% increase in stock price over the last five years, doubling the S&P 500's return during the same period [1] Group 1: Sales Growth and Opportunities - Costco's sales have accelerated post-pandemic, with annualized revenue growth of about 11% from fiscal 2019 to fiscal 2024, compared to 8% from fiscal 2010 to 2019 [2] - The company has substantial growth opportunities in e-commerce and non-food sales, with e-commerce sales increasing nearly 16% year over year last quarter [6][7] - Costco's competitive advantage lies in its membership model, with nearly 80 million paying households, allowing it to offer low prices and continue expanding [4] Group 2: Expansion Plans - As of the recent quarter, Costco operates 914 warehouses globally, with plans to open 24 new locations in high-quality markets such as Sweden, Japan, South Korea, and Canada [5] - The company is experiencing double-digit sales growth in various non-food categories, including jewelry, toys, and home goods, indicating strong demand for diverse product offerings [8] Group 3: Valuation Concerns - Costco's stock trades at a high earnings multiple of 54 times forward earnings, significantly above the S&P 500's forward P/E ratio of 26 [9] - The current P/E ratio is also above Costco's five-year average of 44, raising concerns about the sustainability of such a high valuation given the slowing sales momentum in e-commerce and non-food sales [10][11] - Analysts expect long-term earnings growth at an annualized rate of 9%, which may not justify the current high P/E, potentially leading to disappointing returns for investors [11][12]

Economic Indicators - Initial Jobless Claims reached 240K last week, the highest in a month and 10K above consensus estimates, indicating potential softening in the labor market [3] - Continuing Claims hit 1.919 million, the highest since November 2021, suggesting an increase in long-term jobless claims [4] - Q1 2025 GDP was revised to -0.2%, improving from the first read and better than the expected -0.4%, with consumption decreasing from +1.8% to +1.2% [5] Inflation and Consumer Spending - The Pricing Index for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) reached +3.7%, in line with expectations, while the Core Pricing Index was +3.4%, the highest since Q1 2024 [6] Company Earnings Reports - Best Buy (BBY) reported Q1 earnings of $1.15 per share, exceeding expectations of $1.09, with revenues of $8.77 billion, but cut guidance due to tariff conditions, leading to a -3% pre-market sell-off [7] - Kohl's (KSS) reported a loss of -$0.13 per share, better than the expected -$0.22, with revenues of $3.23 billion surpassing estimates by +0.88%, and maintained forward guidance, resulting in a +7% pre-market increase [8]

Company Overview - Target is a big-box retailer with a diverse product range, competing primarily with Walmart, and has a history of 58 consecutive annual dividend increases [2] - Realty Income is a net lease REIT focused on single-tenant retail properties, with almost 75% of its rent roll from this segment, and has increased its dividend for 30 consecutive years [4][5] Stock Performance - Target's share price has decreased by 65% from its 2021 peak, while Realty Income's stock is down approximately 24% from its 2020 high [1] - Both companies are currently offering dividend yields near their highest levels in a decade, with Target's yield at around 4.6% and Realty Income's at 5.6% [7][8] Dividend Analysis - Target has an annualized dividend growth rate of roughly 8% over the past decade, compared to Realty Income's 3% [9] - Investors focused on maximizing income may prefer Realty Income due to its higher yield, while those interested in dividend growth may favor Target [7][9] Business Model Comparison - Target's performance is closely tied to consumer sentiment, making it more volatile and susceptible to market trends [10] - Realty Income's diversified tenant base provides stability, as retailers must pay rent to occupy properties, reducing the risk of significant swings in income [11] Investment Considerations - For conservative dividend investors, Realty Income's higher yield and stable business model may be more attractive [12]

Core Viewpoint - The significant stock decline of Target presents a potential buying opportunity, especially given its strong dividend history and profit margins amidst a cooling market [1][2]. Company Performance - Target's stock has decreased by 49% over the past year, with a notable 38% drop from a recovery attempt in January 2025 [3]. - The company has maintained sector-leading profit margins despite a slowdown in revenue growth, outperforming competitors like Walmart and Costco in terms of operating, net, and cash flow margins [4]. Valuation Metrics - Target's earnings yield, which is a reverse of the P/E ratio, indicates that the stock is undervalued and presents a strong buying opportunity [7][8]. - The company has a long history of increasing dividends, having raised payouts for 54 consecutive years, resulting in a generous dividend yield compared to its peers [8][10]. Future Growth Strategies - Target is implementing a multi-faceted plan to increase annual revenue by $15 billion over the next five years, leveraging generative AI tools, selective inventory management, and enhanced shopping experiences [12]. - The company is focused on maintaining profitability and delivering consistent dividends, which is expected to provide solid income for investors in the future [11][13].