Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Industrial sector**, specifically analyzing the impact of **Artificial Intelligence (AI)** across various subsectors including **Aerospace & Defense, Airlines, Autos, Business Services, Capital Goods, Homebuilders & Building Products, and Transportation** [2][28]. Core Insights - **AI Adoption Trends**: There is a bullish outlook on AI usage across all industrial subsectors, with mentions of AI in earnings calls doubling over the past two years. In Q1 2025, approximately **14%** of all industrial earnings calls discussed AI [2][11]. - **Investment Growth**: AI/ML venture capital (VC) investments within the industrial sector have surged, accounting for **38%** of total industrial VC capital in 1H25, up from **14%** in the previous years [20][22]. - **Sector-Specific Opportunities**: - **Aerospace & Defense**: Significant growth in private investment and AI applications, particularly in autonomous capabilities and predictive maintenance [7][22]. - **Autos**: AI presents opportunities for automated driving and humanoid robot applications, enhancing plant productivity and reducing costs [7][36]. - **Airlines**: AI is utilized for dynamic pricing, route optimization, and enhancing customer experience [41]. - **Business Services**: AI is driving labor productivity and process automation, although direct impacts on P&L are not yet evident [35]. Financial Implications - **P&L Impact**: Currently, there is little direct evidence of AI impacting P&L or headcount across most industrial sectors. However, long-term operational enhancements are expected to drive efficiency gains and competitiveness [3][4][29]. - **Cost Savings**: Companies like Rolls Royce have reported potential savings through AI applications, such as **£180 million** in sourcing products and **£75 million** in supply chain management over the next few years [38]. Notable Companies and Investments - **Top AI/ML VC Deals**: Significant investments in AI/ML include: - **Anduril Industries**: $2.5 billion in Series G funding. - **Helsing**: $680 million in Series D funding. - **Saronic Technologies**: $600 million in Series C funding [22][27]. - **Best-Positioned Companies**: Companies like Rolls Royce, Safran, and Airbus are highlighted as well-positioned to leverage AI for operational improvements and cost savings [39][40]. Potential Risks and Challenges - **Competitive Pressures**: While first movers in AI may benefit, cost savings in low-barrier areas are expected to be competed away in pricing [4]. - **Regulatory Constraints**: In the Aerospace & Defense sector, regulatory issues may hinder the mass rollout of AI tools [38]. Conclusion - The industrial sector is experiencing a significant shift towards AI integration, with varying degrees of adoption and impact across subsectors. While immediate financial impacts may be limited, the long-term potential for operational enhancements and cost savings presents a compelling case for investment in AI technologies.

Summary of China Industrials Update Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Industrials** sector, particularly capital goods, construction machinery, lithium battery equipment, and automation [6][7][8]. - The overall industry view is categorized as **In-Line** [2]. Key Insights Sector Cycle and Outlook - A positive outlook for **capital goods** is driven by: - Industrial upgrades and technology iterations - Domestic replacement cycles - Overseas opportunities, particularly in lithium battery equipment and construction machinery [6]. - The sector is transitioning from a **down-cycle** of 3-4 years to an **up-cycle** [7]. - **Solar equipment** is identified as the weakest segment due to overcapacity and sluggish demand [7]. Performance Recap - **1H25 sector performance** shows mixed results across various sub-sectors: - Automation: +1% y-y - Heavy-duty trucks: +7% y-y - Lithium battery equipment: +39% y-y - Solar equipment: -41% y-y [11][12][13]. - The **trading P/E** for many sub-sectors is above the five-year median, indicating potential overvaluation [15]. Long-term Drivers - Three long-term drivers for growth include: 1. AI technology diffusion into intelligent manufacturing 2. Advanced equipment localization 3. Global expansion [6]. Heavy-Duty Trucks (HDT) - HDT sales grew by **7% y-y** in 1H25, with a forecast of **1 million units** for the full year [54]. - The market is expected to see a **5% y-y growth** in 2026, driven by domestic replacement demand [56]. Lithium Battery Equipment - Demand for lithium battery equipment is projected to grow by **46%** in 2025 and **24%** in 2026, driven by: - Capacity expansions by leading players - The first major replacement cycle starting in 2025 [118][121][124]. Solar Equipment - The solar equipment market is expected to remain weak, with a forecast of single-digit growth in global installations for 2026-27 [125][127]. - China may face a shortfall in solar installations in 2026-27 due to saturated downstream demand [128]. Automation and Robotics - The automation market is in a mild recovery stage, with expectations for continued growth in 2026-27 [68][69]. - Industrial robot shipments grew by **20% y-y** in 2Q25, with significant contributions from the auto and electronics sectors [107][112]. Additional Insights - **Construction machinery** utilization rates have declined slightly, indicating potential challenges in the sector [42]. - The report highlights the importance of **localization** in manufacturing, with expectations for increased market share for domestic players [114][115]. Conclusion - The China Industrials sector is poised for recovery, particularly in capital goods and automation, while facing challenges in solar equipment. The focus on technological advancements and domestic demand will be crucial for sustained growth in the coming years.

September 8, 2025 10:37 AM GMT Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific China Industrials Update | M | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | Foundation | | September 8, 2025 10:37 AM GMT | | | | Investor Presentation Asia Pacific | Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ | | | | Sheng Zhong | | | | Equity Analyst | | | China Industrials Update | Sheng.Zhong@morganstanley.com | +852 2239-7821 | | | Chelsea Wang | | | | Equity Analyst | | | | Jinlin.Wang@morganstanley.com | +852 2239-1118 | | | Serena Chen | | | | Research Associat ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese manufacturing and consumer sectors**, highlighting trends in **capital goods**, **technology**, **leisure**, and **beauty** industries [2][3][5]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Global Diversification Strategy**: Amid deflation and tariff uncertainties, mid-stream corporates are diversifying capacity globally as a key strategy [3][5]. 2. **Consumer Trends**: Leisure and beauty firms are experiencing solid growth through product differentiation aimed at self-rewarding consumers [3][5]. 3. **Sector Performance**: In July, **capital goods**, **software**, and **real estate** sectors gained the most wallet share, while **technology hardware** saw a significant decline in investor interest [5][10][16]. 4. **Investor Interest Shifts**: The top sectors for investor meetings in July were **technology**, **consumer**, and **financials**, contrasting with previous quarters [3][5]. 5. **Company Visits**: Notable companies visited include **BYD**, **Transsion**, **OmniVision**, and **Mindray**, indicating strong investor interest in these firms [3][5]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Sales Growth in SMID/Materials**: Companies like **Sunresin** and **Shengquan** reported robust sales growth, particularly in overseas markets, with significant projects in the pipeline [8][26][27]. 2. **Leisure and Beauty Sector Dynamics**: Companies such as **Yiwu CCC** and **Chicmax** are focusing on online sales channels and product launches to drive growth [32][37]. 3. **Transport Sector Recovery**: Express shipping prices are recovering, particularly in key regions like Guangdong, indicating a positive trend in logistics [8][32]. 4. **Technology Sector Challenges**: The **China Wafer Level CSP Company** is expanding overseas but faces flat demand in domestic smartphone markets [25]. 5. **Automotive Insights**: Visits to car dealers revealed a shift in consumer sentiment, with a positive outlook for brands like **BYD** amid changing market dynamics [40]. Conclusion The conference call provided a comprehensive overview of the current state of various sectors in China, emphasizing the importance of diversification, consumer trends, and shifts in investor interest. The insights gathered from company visits and sector performance highlight potential investment opportunities and risks in the evolving market landscape.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the US equity market, particularly the transition from a late cycle to an early cycle backdrop, indicating a rolling recovery is beginning [4][15]. Core Insights - **Economic Transition**: The July jobs report supports the bullish case for stocks, confirming a shift to an early cycle environment with rebounding earnings and cash flow expected over the next 6-12 months [4][15]. - **Rate Cuts Anticipation**: The expectation of significant rate cuts is based on the belief that tariff-induced inflation will subside later in the year, with core CPI expected to peak in August [4][12][15]. - **Inflation Data Impact**: A hot CPI print could lead to quality leadership in stocks, while a lighter print may favor small caps and lower quality stocks, suggesting investors should remain nimble around CPI reports [4][12][15]. - **Labor Market Dynamics**: A measured rise in the unemployment rate and weak payroll prints could pull forward market expectations for rate cuts, which would be constructive for equities [9][12]. Sector Analysis - **Preferred Sectors**: The company remains bullish on Industrials and Financials while underweighting Consumer Discretionary Goods due to tariff pressures and weaker pricing power [4][15][13]. - **Earnings Revisions**: There is a notable improvement in earnings revisions breadth, which has moved from -25% in April to +16%, indicating a positive shift in corporate confidence [27][15]. Earnings Season Insights - **Earnings Performance**: The 2Q earnings season has shown a surprise ratio of +8% for EPS and +3% for sales, with expectations of 10% y/y EPS growth for 2025 and 13% for 2026 [27][28]. - **Market Reactions**: Price reactions to earnings have been muted, with an absolute change of -0.1% and relative to the S&P 500 flat at 0.0% [57]. Additional Considerations - **Tariff Pressures**: The sectors most exposed to tariff costs, particularly consumer goods, are expected to face margin compression due to a lack of pricing power, which is a key reason for the underweight stance on Consumer Goods [13][15]. - **Future Outlook**: The overall outlook remains positive for the next 6-12 months, driven by factors such as positive operating leverage, AI adoption, and a weaker dollar, despite near-term inflation risks [15][4]. Conclusion - The company maintains a bullish outlook on US equities, emphasizing the importance of upcoming economic data, particularly CPI, in shaping market dynamics and sector performance [4][15].

Summary of Global Credit Strategy Conference Call Industry Overview - **Global Credit Market**: The conference call focused on the performance of various segments within the global credit market, including US Investment Grade (IG), US High Yield (HY), US Leveraged Loans, EU Investment Grade, EU High Yield, and Asia Credit. Key Points and Arguments US Investment Grade - **Spreads**: Widened by 5 basis points (bp) last week, leading to an excess return of -30 bp [2] - **Performance**: 7-10 year bonds underperformed, while basic industry, media, and telecom sectors lagged. Autos, banks, and real estate performed better [2] - **Net Inflows**: IG funds saw net inflows of $1.2 billion, totaling $30.6 billion year-to-date (YTD) [2] US High Yield - **Spreads**: Increased by 27 bp last week, resulting in an excess return of -78 bp [3] - **Sector Performance**: Consumer goods, basic industry, and media sectors delivered the weakest returns, while capital goods, utilities, and banks performed better [3] - **Net Outflows**: HY funds experienced net outflows of $167 million, with YTD inflows tracking at $11.3 billion [3] US Leveraged Loans - **Spreads**: Widened by 4 bp, with total returns dropping by 8 bp [4] - **Net Inflows**: Experienced net inflows of $255 million, with YTD flows at $6.4 billion [4] EU Investment Grade - **Spreads**: Widened by 1 bp, leading to an excess return of -5 bp [5] - **Performance**: 1-3 year bonds underperformed, with single A ratings also lagging. Tech, consumer goods, and leisure sectors had the weakest returns, while insurance, services, and real estate performed better [5] - **Net Inflows**: EU IG funds saw net inflows of $2.5 billion over the week, totaling $40.7 billion YTD [5] - **New Issues**: €4 billion of new issues lifted YTD volumes to €457 billion, a 13.9% increase year-over-year (YoY) [5] EU High Yield - **Spreads**: Widened by 6 bp last week, with CCC-rated bonds underperforming [6] - **Net Inflows**: EU HY funds saw net inflows of $314 million over the week, totaling $6.0 billion YTD [6] - **Issuance**: Reached €370 million last week, with YTD supply tracking at €96 billion, a 6.9% increase YoY [6] Asia Credit - **Spreads**: Both Asia and APAC credit spreads widened by 4 bp [6] - **Performance**: APAC IG outperformed APAC HY, with IG spreads widening by 5 bp while HY spreads remained flat [6] Additional Important Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The overall sentiment in the credit market appears cautious, with widening spreads indicating increased risk perception among investors [2][3][5][6] - **Sector Disparities**: There are notable disparities in performance across sectors, with traditional safe havens like banks and real estate showing resilience compared to more volatile sectors like consumer goods and media [2][3][5][6] - **Investment Flows**: The trends in net inflows and outflows across different credit segments suggest a shifting investor appetite, with a preference for higher quality credits in uncertain market conditions [3][4][5][6] This summary encapsulates the key takeaways from the conference call, highlighting the performance and trends within the global credit market across various segments.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Asia Pacific and Emerging Markets (EM) sectors, analyzing over 2,000 stocks and their geographic revenue exposure in 2025 [1][10]. Core Insights - **Revenue Generation**: APxJ and EM companies generate 28-29% of their revenues from foreign markets, while this figure is significantly higher at 44% for Japan. Chinese companies have increased their foreign revenue share to 16% in 2025, up from under 12% previously [2][18]. - **Sector Performance**: The IT sector is a major driver of global exposure, with Software, Semiconductors, and Tech Hardware generating 70-79% of their revenues abroad, predominantly from developed markets [2][5]. - **Geopolitical Analysis**: A new stock-level geopolitical distance score has been introduced, assessing how foreign revenues are sourced from markets with differing UN voting patterns compared to the company's domicile [3][24]. Revenue and Cost Structure Updates - The report updates revenue and cost screens for various regions, highlighting companies with significant revenue exposure to the US, developed Europe, and China [4][10]. - The share of revenues sourced from China has decreased from 42% in 2022 to 35% in 2025, while revenues from Asia-Pacific-ex-China markets have increased, reflecting a recovery since 2022 [16][23]. Emerging Trends - **Foreign Sales Growth**: Chinese companies are experiencing a consistent growth trend in foreign sales, particularly in Europe, with the share of revenues from the Americas also showing a slight increase [17][20]. - **Investment Themes**: The Global Exposure Guide is aligned with Morgan Stanley's key theme for 2025, "Investing for a Multipolar World," emphasizing the importance of geographic exposure amid shifting end-markets and supply chain diversification [10][11]. Additional Insights - The report provides a comprehensive database compiled from 170+ analysts' forward-looking revenue estimates, enhancing the quality of geographic exposure data compared to competitors [5][10]. - The geopolitical distance scores range from 0 (domestic revenues) to 3.5 (significant divergence in UN voting patterns), allowing for stock-level rankings and market aggregates [25][26]. Conclusion - The analysis indicates a shifting landscape in revenue generation and geopolitical alignment for companies in the Asia Pacific and EM regions, highlighting both opportunities and risks for investors in 2025 [1][10].

Economic Indicators - US factories experienced an unexpected decline in orders for business equipment in June [1] - The decline suggests companies are cautious about capital spending [1] Factors Influencing Investment - Trade policy uncertainty is a factor influencing companies' capital spending decisions [1] - Fiscal policy uncertainty is also contributing to companies' cautious approach to capital spending [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights flow-driven factor rotations due to rising volatility from external shocks and policy changes, leading to frequent shifts in investor positions and flows [5][8] - Retail Trading Proportion (RTP) is used as a proxy to gauge investor sentiment, indicating that capturing alpha from flow-based signals is easier during flow-driven markets, especially with high retail participation [8] - The best investment ideas identified are Offshore Ownership and High-Dividend stocks, which serve as informative indicators for stock picking [122] Market Overview - China's domestic equity market offers diverse investable universes with approximately 2,700 eligible names as of April 2025, facilitated by the Stock Connect program [13] - The market capitalization distribution across various indices shows significant liquidity and varying P/E ratios, with the CSI300 index having a P/E ratio of 28.7 and a dividend yield of 2.3% [14] Performance Comparison - The annualized return for the CSI300 index is 7.5%, while the CSI500 and CSI1000 indices show returns of 10.2% and 10.6% respectively, indicating a performance trend favoring smaller-cap indices [17] - The maximum drawdown for the CSI300 index is -71%, highlighting the volatility in the market [17] Policy Highlights - Key policy events have influenced market volatility, including liquidity improvements from policy easing in February 2019 and the impact of COVID-19 in February 2020, which led to significant market recovery [24][25] - Recent policies in November 2023 focused on regulating algo-trading, indicating a shift towards more structured trading environments [25] Investor Landscape - Retail investors account for approximately 40% of market capitalization and contribute around half of the total market turnover, indicating their significant role in market dynamics [31] - Northbound investors hold over RMB 2 trillion in market capitalization, contributing about 7% of total market turnover, while Southbound investors have seen substantial inflows since 2017 [48][56] Factor Rotation - The report discusses three phases of factor rotation in the market, with the current phase characterized by increased volatility and frequent shifts in investor sentiment between fear and greed [90][93] - A factor timing strategy based on retail investor sentiment has generated an annualized return of 9.6% since 2018, outperforming an equal-weight factor model [118] Smart Money Analysis - The report identifies smart money trends amid volatility, emphasizing the importance of onshore margin financing and short selling as indicators of market sentiment [120] - Offshore ownership and high-dividend stocks are highlighted as key areas for capturing alpha in the current market environment [122]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Capital Goods and Software sectors, indicating a favorable outlook for these industries [57]. Core Insights - Leading indicators suggest a stronger earnings backdrop than anticipated, with high-single-digit EPS growth projected over the next year [4][9]. - Earnings revisions breadth has improved significantly, moving from -25% in mid-April to -9%, indicating a positive shift in earnings expectations [4][9]. - The Non-PMI Leading Earnings Indicator points to mid-teens EPS growth by the first half of 2026, driven by stable demand and reduced material costs [4][9]. - A weaker US dollar, down 11% from January highs, is expected to provide additional support for US earnings trends, with further downside anticipated [4][9]. Summary by Sections Earnings Outlook - The main earnings model forecasts high-single-digit EPS growth for the next year, supported by improving earnings revisions breadth [4][9]. - The Non-PMI Leading Earnings Indicator suggests mid-teens EPS growth by 1H26, driven by demand stability and lower material costs [4][9]. Sector Preferences - Capital Goods and Software sectors are highlighted as key beneficiaries of a weaker dollar, with significant inverse correlations between earnings revisions breadth and the dollar [16][21]. - Capital Goods are expected to benefit from infrastructure build-out, while Software is positioned to leverage GenAI for cost efficiency and revenue growth [13][15]. Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes the importance of earnings revisions breadth as a driver for industry group outperformance, particularly for Capital Goods and Software [12][22]. - The US equity market is preferred over international equities due to stronger earnings revisions in the US compared to Europe and Japan [22]. Financial Sector Insights - The Financials sector is viewed positively, with expectations of a stabilizing M&A environment and resilient consumer conditions [31][33]. - Companies are leveraging AI to enhance operational efficiency, which is expected to contribute positively to earnings growth [37][39].