HP (HPQ) Q3 2025 Earnings Call August 27, 2025 04:30 PM ET Company ParticipantsOrit Keinan-Nahon - Global Head - IREnrique Lores - CEO, President & DirectorKaren Parkhill - EVP & CFOSteven Chin - Vice PresidentIrvin Liu - Vice PresidentDavid Vogt - Managing DirectorMichael Ng - MD - Global Investment ResearchMaya Neuman - Equity Research AssociateAlek Valero - Equity Research AssociateConference Call ParticipantsWamsi Mohan - Senior Equity Research AnalystOperatorGood day, everyone, and welcome to the Third ...

Key Takeaways HPQ expects Q3 revenues of $13.96B, up 3.3% Y/Y, with EPS forecast to decline 9.6%.Personal Systems sales are rising 6.7% on AI PC launches and gaming growth.Printing revenues are projected to fall 4.6% amid weak China demand and macro pressures.HP Inc. (HPQ) is set to release its third-quarter fiscal 2025 results on Aug. 27, after market close.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $13.96 billion, suggesting an improvement of 3.3% from the prior-year quarter.HP expects non-GAA ...

Core Viewpoint - The Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) is a passively managed ETF that provides broad exposure to the Technology - Broad segment of the equity market, making it a suitable option for long-term investors due to its low costs and transparency [1][2]. Group 1: ETF Overview - XLK was launched on December 16, 1998, and is designed to match the performance of the Technology Select Sector Index [1]. - The fund is sponsored by State Street Investment Management and has over $83.43 billion in assets, making it the largest ETF in its category [3]. - The ETF includes companies from various technology-related industries, such as computers, software, telecommunications, and semiconductors [4]. Group 2: Costs and Performance - The annual operating expenses for XLK are 0.08%, which is considered low in the ETF space, and it has a 12-month trailing dividend yield of 0.59% [5]. - As of August 5, 2025, XLK has gained approximately 13.14% year-to-date and 28.88% over the past year, with a trading range between $179.73 and $264.68 during the last 52 weeks [8]. Group 3: Holdings and Risk - The ETF has a 100% allocation in the Information Technology sector, with Nvidia Corp (NVDA) making up about 15.12% of total assets, followed by Microsoft Corp (MSFT) and Apple Inc (AAPL) [6]. - The top 10 holdings account for approximately 62.78% of total assets under management [7]. - XLK has a beta of 1.23 and a standard deviation of 24.73% over the trailing three-year period, indicating a medium risk profile [8]. Group 4: Alternatives - XLK holds a Zacks ETF Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), indicating strong expected returns and favorable metrics [9]. - Other ETFs in the technology space include iShares U.S. Technology ETF (IYW) and Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT), with respective assets of $22.63 billion and $97.70 billion [11].

Group 1 - The Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) has reached a 52-week high and is up 52.5% from its 52-week low of $172.45 per share, indicating strong momentum in the technology sector [1] - The underlying index of XLK includes various industries such as computers & peripherals, software, telecommunications, semiconductors, and IT services, showcasing the diversity within the technology sector [1] - The ETF charges 8 basis points in annual fees, making it a cost-effective option for investors [1] Group 2 - The recent tech rally has been fueled by strong performance from major companies, particularly Alphabet (GOOGL), which reported better-than-expected second-quarter 2025 results and increased its capital expenditures forecast for AI infrastructure [2] - This positive outlook from Alphabet has raised expectations for similar earnings results from other large technology firms, indicating a potential trend in the sector [2] Group 3 - XLK currently holds a Zacks ETF Rank 1 (Strong Buy), suggesting that the ETF may continue to outperform in the coming months [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Wiwynn Corporation with a target price of TWD3,400, implying approximately 32.8% upside from the current price of TWD2,560 [4][21][22]. Core Insights - The report highlights stronger growth in ASIC servers compared to GPU servers, with expectations for continued momentum into the second half of 2025 [2][7]. - Major PC ODMs experienced a significant pull-in in notebook shipments in June 2025, with a 22% month-over-month increase and an 11% quarter-over-quarter rise, exceeding previous guidance [1][3]. - The overall outlook for notebook shipments in the second half of 2025 remains cautious due to unclear consumer demand, with a forecasted year-over-year growth of only 3% [3][4]. Summary by Sections ASIC Server Outlook - The demand for ASIC servers is expected to strengthen in the second half of 2025, particularly driven by AWS's Trainium 2 servers, with a forecast of sequential double-digit growth in rack shipments [2][4]. - The yield rate for GB200 server rack assembly is anticipated to improve from below 50% in the second quarter of 2025 to 60-70% in the second half of 2025 [2]. Notebook Market Analysis - The early pull-in of notebook shipments is largely completed, with a muted growth outlook for the second half of 2025 due to ongoing consumer demand uncertainty [3][4]. - The report estimates a 1% quarter-over-quarter increase in notebook shipments for the third quarter of 2025, which is below seasonal norms [3]. Stock Recommendations - Wiwynn is favored due to its strong revenue outlook supported by accelerating ASIC server shipments, with Oracle expected to contribute 7% to Wiwynn's revenue in 2025 [4][7]. - The report emphasizes the potential for additional upside from Oracle beyond 2025, driven by market share shifts and an expanding addressable market [4].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **server market**, particularly the demand for **ASIC (Application-Specific Integrated Circuit)** servers and general servers, with a strong emphasis on companies like **Broadcom**, **Meta**, **Amazon (AWS)**, and various Taiwanese server manufacturers such as **Wiwynn**, **Quanta**, and **EMC** [1][2][3][4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Server Market Demand**: There is increasing momentum in the server market, particularly for ASIC servers, with expected revenue growth at a CAGR of **96%** from 2023 to 2027, compared to **47%** for AI GPU revenue [3][9][51]. 2. **ASIC Server Growth**: ASIC servers are anticipated to contribute significantly to hyperscaler capital expenditures, with major players like AWS and Meta ramping up their ASIC server projects [3][9][51]. 3. **GB200 and GB300 Demand**: Orders for GB200 servers are increasing, with expectations for GB300 to enter mass production in **4Q25**. Total GB orders are estimated at **30-31k** for 2025, with a yield rate improvement expected from **40-50%** to **60-70%** in the second half of 2025 [4][32]. 4. **General Server Orders**: There is a notable increase in general server orders from US cloud service providers (CSPs) into **3Q25**, driven by AWS and Microsoft, with an expected **11%** year-over-year growth in cloud server shipments for 2025 [5][44]. 5. **Meta's ASIC Roadmap**: Meta is advancing its ASIC server designs, with plans for high-density racks featuring up to **256 ASICs per rack** by 2027, which will enhance cooling and power efficiency [13][14]. Additional Important Insights 1. **CSPs' Capital Expenditure Plans**: Major CSPs like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google are significantly increasing their capital expenditures, with Microsoft planning **USD 21.4 billion** for cloud and AI-related spending in FY3Q25 and Amazon's capex expected to exceed **USD 100 billion** in 2025 [49]. 2. **Wiwynn's Position**: Wiwynn is positioned to benefit from increased orders for both GB200 and AWS's ASIC servers, with expectations for demand to extend into **1H26** due to delays in next-generation server production [53][54]. 3. **Quanta's Market Share**: Quanta is gaining market share in GB200 and GB300 orders, with a **36%** market share in GB300 and a positive outlook on AI demand [58]. 4. **EMC's Growth**: EMC is expected to be a major beneficiary of AI ASIC demand, with projected revenue growth of **37%** in FY25 and **21%** in FY26 [57]. 5. **Risks and Valuation**: The report highlights potential risks such as weaker-than-expected demand for global servers and pricing competition among suppliers, while maintaining a positive outlook on the growth potential of ASICs and server demand [62]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the server market, particularly focusing on ASIC technology and its implications for major players in the industry.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 5% increase in revenue in constant currency year over year, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of revenue growth [8][22] - Non-GAAP operating profit fell short of expectations due to additional tariff costs, impacting earnings per share by approximately $0.12 [9][22] - Gross margin decreased to 20.7% year over year, influenced by increased tariff and commodity costs [24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Personal Systems revenue grew 8% in constant currency, driven by strong commercial performance, with commercial revenue increasing by 9% year over year [10][26] - Print revenue declined 3% in constant currency, with growth in Europe offsetting a slowdown in North America and weak demand in China [12][28] - The operating margin for Personal Systems was 4.5%, below the guidance range, primarily due to higher tariff costs [27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue growth was observed across all regions, with APJ growing 9%, Americas growing 5%, and EMEA growing 1% in constant currency [23] - The company expects the PC market to grow low single digits for the second half of the year, influenced by macroeconomic uncertainties [19][33] - The print market is anticipated to decline in low single digits for the calendar year, with expectations of a mid-single-digit decline in the second half [34] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on diversifying its manufacturing locations to mitigate geopolitical risks, with plans for nearly all products sold in North America to be built outside of China by June [9][10] - The Future Ready Accelerated Plan aims to deliver at least $2 billion in gross annual run rate structural savings by the end of fiscal year 2025 [19][30] - The company is committed to leveraging AI to enhance productivity and employee satisfaction, with a significant focus on AI PCs and related innovations [14][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the dynamic external environment, including shifting trade policies and tariffs, which impacted operating profit [7][22] - The company remains confident in its ability to navigate market uncertainties and expects to fully mitigate tariff costs by Q4 [18][33] - Future growth is expected to be driven by strong demand in commercial PCs and the adoption of AI technologies [19][66] Other Important Information - The company returned approximately $400 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases [31] - Free cash flow was slightly negative due to timing of payments related to inventory actions taken for tariff mitigation [30][68] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for the PC market in the second half of the year - Management noted strong demand in Q2, especially in commercial, but adopted a more prudent outlook for the second half due to economic conditions and price increases [42][43] Question: Size and growth of growth businesses - Growth businesses are performing well and are expected to represent more than 25% of the PC business by year-end, with solid growth in AIPCs and Workforce Solutions [49][50] Question: Personal Systems margins for the full year - Margins are expected to be in the 5% to 7% range for the full year, likely in the lower half due to Q2 impacts [55][56] Question: AI PCs and their impact on growth - The company is optimistic about AI PCs, which are expected to represent a significant portion of PC shipments in the coming years, driving higher average selling prices [66] Question: Mitigation actions for tariff impacts - The company has accelerated the shift of manufacturing out of China and implemented price increases across its portfolio to offset tariff costs [75][78]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Overall revenue growth of 2% year over year, marking the third consecutive quarter of growth [8][26] - Non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.74, slightly above the midpoint of guidance [9][28] - Gross margin decreased to 21% year over year due to increased commodity costs [27][28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Personal Systems revenue increased by 5% year over year, driven by commercial growth [17][29] - Print revenue declined by 1% in constant currency year over year, in line with expectations [20][31] - Consumer subscriptions revenue grew with a milestone of 1,000,000 instant paper subscribers [20][100] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - APJ region grew by 5%, Americas by 3%, and EMEA by 2% in constant currency [27] - Worldwide PC commercial revenue grew by 10% year over year, fueled by AI PC adoption and Windows 11 refresh [18][29] - Competitive pricing market in office and weak demand in China impacted overall performance [19][31] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Focus on leading the future of work with investments in AI and software capabilities [10][11] - Realignment of key growth areas to include AI PCs and advanced compute solutions, while gaming will be managed as part of the core portfolio [11][12] - Plans to deliver $1,900,000,000 in gross annual run rate structural savings by the end of fiscal year 2025 [24][33] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the full year outlook despite geopolitical uncertainties and tariff impacts [24][36] - Anticipated stronger EPS in the second half of the year due to seasonal strength and ongoing cost management efforts [37][40] - Continued focus on profitable growth and strategic investments to navigate macroeconomic challenges [40][41] Other Important Information - Acquisition of strategic assets from Humane to enhance AI capabilities and build an intelligent ecosystem [10][82] - Commitment to return approximately 100% of free cash flow to shareholders over time [39] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of China tariffs on guidance - Management included known impacts of current tariffs in guidance, primarily affecting the Personal Systems business [44][45] Question: Drivers of Personal Systems growth - Key drivers include aging installed base, Windows 11 refresh, and penetration of AI PCs [51][52] Question: Windows end of life and device refresh confidence - There is an acceleration in Windows 11 refresh, with customers more aware and ready to drive the refresh [55][56] Question: Customer adoption of AI PCs - Expected penetration of AI PCs to be around 25% by year-end, with continued projections for future growth [58] Question: Competitive environment for print in China - Competitive environment remains stable, with no radical changes in supplies competitive perspective [92] Question: Inventory growth implications - Increased finished goods inventories in the U.S. to mitigate tariff impacts, but not necessarily implying further growth in inventory [94][95]