Key Takeaways PGY's AI-driven, capital-light model shows stronger earnings growth prospects than a traditional lender.OMF relies on branch-based lending, securitization and shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks.PGY benefits from forward-flow funding, limited balance-sheet risk and sharply improving credit losses.Two key players in the consumer finance space that target the underserved credit segments, such as subprime and non-prime borrowers, are Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) and OneMain Holdi ...

Fourth quarter and full year 2025 results January 29, 2026 © 2 0 2 2 B r e a d F i n a n c i a l | C o n f i d e n t i a l & P r o p r i e t a r y 1 2025 achievements Delivered responsible growth Adapted to the macroeconomic and regulatory environment Disciplined capital allocation and risk management Drove operational excellence and technology advancement Achieved full year 2025 financial outlook (2) In the calculation of Full year 2025 actuals, Revenue (excl. gain on sale) excludes from Total revenue $3 m ...

Core Viewpoint - Affirm Holdings Inc's stock is experiencing volatility in response to President Trump's proposal to cap credit card interest rates at 10%, which has implications for the consumer credit market [2][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction and Implications - The proposed cap on credit card rates could disrupt traditional credit issuers, potentially benefiting Affirm by positioning it as a consumer-friendly alternative to revolving credit [3]. - Following the initial rise in stock price due to the proposal, Affirm's shares have declined as the market assesses the long-term effects of the policy change [2][3]. Group 2: Technical Indicators - Affirm's stock is trading 0.2% above its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and 0.3% above its 100-day SMA, indicating a stable short-term trend [4]. - Over the past year, shares have increased by 38.89%, reflecting strength in the longer-term trend [4]. Group 3: Analyst Predictions and Valuation - Analysts predict a significant earnings surge, with the next earnings report scheduled for February 5 [6]. - The stock carries a Buy Rating with a consensus price target of $84.56, supported by an expected earnings growth of 165% [7]. - Affirm's valuation shows a P/E ratio of 110.7x, indicating a premium valuation despite strong growth expectations [9]. Group 4: Benzinga Edge Rankings - Affirm is classified as a "High-Flyer" with strong momentum (score: 80) and exceptional growth potential (score: 98), but a low value score (17) suggests it is priced for perfection [8]. Group 5: Key Price Levels and Estimates - Key resistance for the stock is at $79, while key support is at $65.50 [9]. - EPS estimate is 61 cents, up from 23 cents year-over-year, and revenue estimate is $1.06 billion, up from $866.38 million year-over-year [9]. Group 6: ETF Exposure - Affirm has significant weight in various ETFs, meaning substantial inflows or outflows could lead to automatic buying or selling of the stock [11].

Core Viewpoint - AEON CREDIT (00900) reported a revenue of HKD 1.358 billion for the nine months ending November 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [1] - The company's profit for the same period was HKD 353 million, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 28.11% [1] - Basic earnings per share were reported at HKD 0.8422 [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the nine-month period reached HKD 1.358 billion, up 4.1% compared to the previous year [1] - Profit for the period was HKD 353 million, marking a 28.11% increase year-on-year [1] - Basic earnings per share stood at HKD 0.8422 [1]

Core Insights - Jefferson Capital, Inc. has announced the acquisition of a credit card asset portfolio from Bluestem Brands for a gross purchase price of $302.8 million, with a face value of $488.2 million [1][2][3] Group 1: Transaction Details - The acquisition involves a revolving loan portfolio for which the ability to draw on the receivables has been suspended [1] - The gross purchase price will be adjusted for interim portfolio cash flows from June 30, 2025, to the closing date [1] - The transaction is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2025, pending customary regulatory approvals [3] Group 2: Strategic Positioning - This transaction reinforces Jefferson Capital's position as a strategic acquirer of dislocated consumer credit assets, following a previous portfolio purchase from Conn's [2] - The company aims to leverage its expertise in managing small balance active and charged-off portfolios to provide solutions for sellers while generating returns for shareholders [2] Group 3: Funding and Servicing - The transaction will be funded through existing capacity under Jefferson Capital's senior secured revolving credit facility [3] - An interim servicing agreement will be established with Bluestem to transition servicing activities to CardWorks Servicing, LLC [2]

Core Insights - Auto loans have become the riskiest consumer credit product in the United States [2] Group 1 - The increasing default rates on auto loans indicate a growing risk in this sector [2] - Economic factors such as rising interest rates and inflation are contributing to the heightened risk associated with auto loans [2] - The trend of subprime lending in the auto loan market is exacerbating the overall risk profile [2]

Core Insights - Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) and OneMain Holdings, Inc. (OMF) are significant players in the consumer finance sector, focusing on underserved credit segments like subprime and non-prime borrowers, but they operate under different business models [1][3] Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) - Pagaya is a technology-driven fintech platform utilizing AI-powered machine learning algorithms for credit risk assessment, loan underwriting, and asset securitization in collaboration with banks and fintech lenders [2] - The company has diversified its offerings from personal loans to auto lending and point-of-sale financing, reducing reliance on any single loan type and enhancing resilience during economic fluctuations [4] - Pagaya has established a network of over 135 institutional partners and employs forward flow agreements to ensure funding stability, particularly during market disruptions [4][6] - The company has recorded two consecutive quarters of positive GAAP net income, marking a significant turnaround from previous losses, driven by strong network volume growth and improved operating leverage [8] - Pagaya's return on equity (ROE) stands at 31.69%, indicating higher efficiency in generating profits compared to OneMain's 20.65% [18] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate predicts revenue growth of 28.4% and 20.1% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with earnings growth estimates of 219.3% and 28.3% for the same years [19] OneMain Holdings, Inc. (OMF) - OneMain operates as a traditional non-prime lender, providing personal loans through a nationwide branch network and digital channels, with a focus on unsecured and secured personal installment loans [11] - The company has a strong revenue growth trajectory, with a loan mix designed for sustainability and upside potential in a changing macroeconomic environment [12] - OneMain has a $1 billion buyback program extending through December 2026 and has raised dividends seven times since initiating them in 2019, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [14] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates revenue growth of 7.8% and 7.4% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with earnings growth estimates of 28.2% and 25.4% for the same years [23] Comparative Analysis - Pagaya's stock has surged 217.8% this year, significantly outperforming OneMain's 8.1% gain, indicating stronger investor sentiment towards Pagaya [15] - In terms of valuation, Pagaya trades at a trailing 12-month price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 4.83X, while OneMain's P/B ratio is 2.03X, suggesting that Pagaya is considered more expensive [16][18] - Pagaya's compelling growth trajectory positions it as a high-upside investment opportunity, while OneMain's established marketplace model offers a more attractive valuation [25][26]

Financial Performance - Net income reached $188 million, with diluted earnings per share at $3.96, including a $38 million favorable discrete tax item and a $3 million post-tax impact from repurchased debt[5] - Adjusted net income was $191 million[7] - Revenue totaled $1 billion[7] - Tangible book value per common share increased by $8.88, or 19%, year-over-year to $56.36[5] - Return on average tangible common equity was 28.6%[5] Deposits and Funding - Direct-to-consumer deposits increased by 9% year-over-year to $8.2 billion, representing 47% of average total funding[5] Capital Allocation - The company announced a share repurchase authorization of $200 million in August and repurchased 0.6 million shares during the quarter[5] - An additional 0.4 million shares were repurchased in October, totaling 1 million shares for $60 million[5] - A $200 million increase to the share repurchase authorization was announced, bringing the total available to $340 million[5] - A quarterly cash dividend of $0.23 per common share was declared, a 10% increase from the prior quarter[5] Credit Quality - The delinquency rate decreased from 6.4% to 6.0% compared to the third quarter of 2024[12] - The net loss rate decreased from 7.8% to 7.4% compared to the third quarter of 2024[12]

Core Insights - Equifax and Qlarifi are collaborating on a study to analyze the impact of Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) reporting on credit risk assessments and fraud prevention [1][2] - The study will utilize real-time BNPL data from multiple providers, marking the first of its kind in the U.S. [2][4] Group 1: BNPL Usage Trends - Over 50% of U.S. consumers currently use BNPL for payments, with 35% planning to increase their usage in 2025 [2] - The growing adoption of BNPL necessitates a deeper understanding of its predictive capabilities for lenders [5] Group 2: Study Objectives and Benefits - The joint study aims to minimize loan stacking risks, quantify the predictive power of BNPL data, and enhance consumer benefits [4] - It will explore how BNPL data can improve consumer protection by providing early visibility into financial stress and preventing overextension [5] Group 3: Company Profiles - Equifax is a global data, analytics, and technology company with nearly 15,000 employees, operating in 24 countries [7] - Qlarifi specializes in real-time BNPL consumer credit data, offering insights that help lenders make informed underwriting decisions [8]

Financial Performance - Net income was $139 million, with earnings per diluted share at $2.94[6] - Adjusted net income reached $149 million, and adjusted earnings per diluted share were $3.15, excluding a $10 million post-tax impact from repurchased debt[6] - Revenue totaled $0.9 billion[7] - Credit sales increased by 4% to $6.8 billion, driven by new partner growth and increased general-purpose spending[11] Capital and Funding - Direct-to-consumer deposits increased by 12% year-over-year to $8.1 billion, representing 45% of average total funding[6] - Tangible book value per common share increased by 7% year-over-year to $52.21[6] - Completed a $150 million tender offer for 9.75% senior notes due 2029[6] - CET1 capital ratio was 13.0%[17] - Total risk-based capital ratio was 16.5%[17] Credit Quality - The delinquency rate decreased to 5.7% from 6.0% in the second quarter of 2024[11] - The net loss rate decreased to 7.9% from 8.6% in the second quarter of 2024[11]